NEW YORK, March 22, 2026, 1:16 PM EDT
This week, oil is setting the tone, not earnings. Wall Street’s focus has turned to President Donald Trump’s ultimatum: Iranian power plants face strikes if Tehran doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. The backdrop? Brent wrapped up Friday at $112.19, up 8.8% for the week. The S&P 500 sank to a six-month low.
No mystery here: higher crude prices are fueling inflation jitters, sending bond yields up and dampening hopes for a U.S. rate cut. U.S. equity funds bled $24.78 billion in outflows for the week ending March 18, LSEG Lipper data shows. Money market funds, on the other hand, took in $32.73 billion.
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday and signaled a higher inflation forecast. Chair Jerome Powell flagged higher energy costs as a factor likely to push headline inflation higher. As for what that means for the broader economy—Powell had no clear answer. “Nobody knows,” he admitted. Reuters
Friday brought a wave of selling across the board. The S&P 500 tumbled 1.51% to close at 6,506.48; the Dow shaved off 0.96%, landing at 45,577.47. Over on the Nasdaq, a 2.01% slide put the index at 21,647.61—nearly 10% below its October highs and brushing up against correction territory. Nvidia and Tesla both fell more than 3%, and Microsoft lost nearly 2%. The S&P 500 energy sector barely budged for the session but still managed a 13th straight winning week.
Next week isn’t overloaded with events, though it looks potentially significant. CERAWeek starts Monday in Houston and runs all the way through Friday—organizers have it listed for March 23-27. According to Reuters, more than 10,000 participants are expected, representing 80-plus countries. That’s the kind of draw that tends to focus investor attention on energy shares and oil producers.
Powell takes the spotlight Tuesday, while Governor Michael Barr is set for double duty—appearing both that day and Thursday. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson’s turn comes Thursday, with comments pegged to “Economic Outlook and Energy Effects.” On the data front, not a lot in the pipeline: revised Q4 productivity lands Tuesday; the Labor Department rolls out February’s import and export prices on Wednesday. S&P Global drops its flash U.S. PMI and the final March University of Michigan sentiment number on Friday. Those waiting on February durable goods will have to hang on—a Census Bureau release isn’t slated until April 7. Federal Reserve
Traders stick to the basics. “If you’re a trader, you watch oil prices,” said Eric Kuby at North Star Investment Management. Chris Fasciano over at Commonwealth Financial Network called the current equity dip “fairly orderly.” At Truist, Keith Lerner pointed out the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.38% on Friday—he flagged trouble for stocks if yields stay above 4.3% and drift toward 4.5%. The S&P 500 has now dropped under its 200-day moving average, a level a lot of market watchers treat as a momentum signal. Reuters
The ride has hardly been smooth. Washington has okayed roughly 140 million barrels of Iranian oil already out on the water and tapped 45.2 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in a bid to cool prices. A swifter reopening of Hormuz might hand bruised equities a reprieve. Reuters, referencing LSEG data, notes that most 5% slides don’t morph into a full 10% correction. Yet risk isn’t drifting out of the picture—IG’s Tony Sycamore called Trump’s ultimatum a “48-hour ticking time bomb.” Should crude spike again, oil could easily take the reins on U.S. market sentiment to start the week. Reuters
