US stock futures climb, big tech diverges as AI-driven cash flow divides winners and losers

NEW YORK, July 30, 2026, 09:05 EDT

Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 1.57%. S&P 500 futures were up 0.59%, and Dow futures advanced 0.35%.
Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT rose 9.18% before the bell, while Meta Platforms NASDAQ:META dropped 9.74%.
The initial estimate for GDP growth came in at 1.5%, missing the 2.1% consensus expectation. Additionally, monthly core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation was lower than projected.

U.S. stock futures advanced on Thursday, with gains mostly focused on technology shares. Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 1.57%, while Dow futures were up 0.35%.

At 09:05 EDT, the cash market remained shut. Standard trading is set to start at 09:30. Futures pointed to a modest recovery following Wednesday’s 1.52% drop in the S&P 500.

The real indicator was found beneath the headline index change. The divergence between Microsoft and Meta shows investors remain willing to support significant artificial-intelligence spending. However, they are now prioritizing clear demonstrations of free cash flow, meaning the amount of cash remaining after capital expenditures.

Index futures as indicated at 08:47 EDT

Contract	Level	Point move	Percentage move
Nasdaq 100 futures	27,770.50	up 428.50	rising 1.57%
S&P 500 futures	7,394.50	up 43.25	gaining 0.59%
Dow futures	51,947.00	up 182.00	advancing 0.35%

Nasdaq futures outperformed the S&P contract by 0.98 percentage point and were ahead of the Dow by 1.22 points. The rebound remains limited rather than indicating broad risk appetite.

Microsoft reported an 18% increase in quarterly revenue to $90.0 billion. Revenue from Azure and associated cloud offerings climbed 43%. “Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time,” Chief Executive Satya Nadella said. Microsoft

Meta reported a 28% increase in revenue to $60.8 billion, but expenses climbed 55% and operating margin declined to 31% from 43%. Shares dropped 9.74% in premarket trading.

AI cash conversion for the quarters ending June 30

Figures reported by companies are shown in billions of dollars; percentages are also listed. Margins reflect values based on data provided in reports. Company definitions may vary and are not exactly the same.

Measure	Microsoft	Meta Platforms
Revenue	$90.00	$60.80
Revenue growth	18%	28%
Capital expenditure	$41.00	$31.08
Free cash flow	$19.60	$0.784
Free-cash-flow margin	21.8%	1.3%
Premarket share move	rises 9.18%	drops 9.74%

Microsoft’s capital expenditures exceeded Meta’s by 32%. Despite this, the company generated free cash flow at a level 25 times higher than Meta’s reported figure. Meta’s quarterly results reflected $3.58 billion in legal and severance expenses.

Futures gained further support from the morning’s economic data, though the signals were mixed.

U.S. data published at 08:30 EDT

Indicator	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Q2 GDP, annualized advance	1.5%	2.1%	2.1%
June core PCE, month-over-month	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%
June core PCE, year-over-year	3.3%	3.3%	3.4%
Initial weekly jobless claims	197,000	200,000	188,000 revised

Core inflation for the month came in below forecasts. The initial GDP reading fell short by 0.6 percentage point. On first look, this backdrop supported gains in growth stocks.

The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday, with a 9-3 split among policymakers. The three dissenting members supported a 0.25 percentage point hike. “Each meeting we’re now building more uncertainty around it than the last,” RWA Wealth Partners’ JP Powers said. Federal Reserve

Shares of Lam Research NASDAQ:LRCX climbed 13.72% in premarket trade. The company posted June-quarter revenue of $6.72 billion, up 15.1% from the previous quarter. For the September quarter, Lam Research forecast revenue at $8.10 billion, plus or minus $400 million.

The step expanded the focus from cloud software to chip-making machinery. It further strengthened the Nasdaq’s advantage over the Dow.

Amazon.com NASDAQ:AMZN and Apple NASDAQ:AAPL are scheduled to host their earnings calls at 17:00 EDT. Investors will look to their guidance for indications on whether cash conversion is still considered the leading AI market filter.

Risks: Futures provide an early guide but may shift direction when markets open. A resurgence in Treasury yield increases or disappointing outlooks from major tech firms could undermine gains in the sector.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

Editorial insight

How are U.S. stock futures performing ahead of Thursday’s market open?

Dow futures climbed 0.35% to 51,947 as of 8:47 a.m. ET. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.59% to 7,394.50. Nasdaq 100 futures increased 1.57% to 27,770.50. The data points to a stronger open, with technology stocks driving gains. Prices are indicative and may change before trading begins at 9:30 a.m. ET. markets.businessinsider.com

What was the extent of the damage caused by the market selloff on Wednesday?

The S&P 500 dropped 1.52% to close Wednesday at 7,316.15. The Nasdaq Composite declined 1.74%, ending the session at 24,442.94. The Dow decreased 2.19% to finish at 51,594.14. Eight out of eleven S&P sectors fell, with declining stocks outnumbering advancers by 1.8-to-one. That market breadth suggests today’s rebound faces further challenges. Reuters

What is driving Nasdaq futures to such a marked lead over the Dow?

Microsoft gained nearly 9% in premarket trading following a 43% rise in Azure revenue. The company projected Azure growth of about 45% for its current fiscal quarter. Meta slid roughly 8.3% as its free cash flow declined 91%. Meta reported $784 million in free cash flow and forecast annual capital expenditures between $130 billion and $145 billion. The moves benefit Nasdaq futures, but increase focus on AI profitability. Reuters

Has the latest PCE inflation report led to a better market outlook?

Headline PCE prices declined by 0.1% in June and advanced 3.7% on an annual basis. Core PCE rose 0.1% over the month, coming in under the 0.2% consensus estimate. Core inflation stayed at 3.3% compared to a year ago. Real consumer spending climbed 0.4%, and personal income increased by 0.2%. The easing monthly figures support equities. Inflation levels remain a concern. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Does the 1.5% GDP figure indicate a recession is near?

Real GDP rose at a 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter, underperforming the 2.1% projection. The pace of growth was also slower compared to the 2.1% increase in the prior quarter. However, private domestic final sales climbed to 3.9% from 1.7%. Consumer spending and business investment grew, offsetting a drop in government expenditure. The figures signal slower momentum, without firm indications of recession. The preliminary estimate is due for revision on August 26. Bureau of Economic Analysis

How do initial jobless claims reflect trends in employment and potential implications for Fed policy?

Initial jobless claims increased by 9,000 to 197,000, coming in under the 200,000 expected. The four-week moving average dipped by 5,000 to stand at 202,750. Ongoing claims fell 7,000 to around 1.78 million. The labor market remains resilient. This bolsters consumer demand but lowers the likelihood of immediate rate cuts. AP News

Could rising Treasury yields and oil prices disrupt the recovery?

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% following a 9–3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25 basis-point hike. The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.682% at 8:55 a.m. ET, while the 30-year yield earlier touched 5.244%, the highest since 2007. Brent hovered around $90.11 after a 0.69% drop earlier in the day. Persistently high yields and costly energy threaten to swiftly erase stock market gains. Federal Reserve

Is the rebound today sustainable, or just a temporary relief rally?

After a widespread selloff, the rebound is underway, though gains remain narrowly focused. Nasdaq futures rose 1.57%, while Dow futures advanced just 0.35%. Microsoft’s rally accounts for much of the difference. The S&P 500 was recently valued at close to 20 times projected profits, compared to a ten-year average of roughly 19 times. Sustained momentum would require wider sector gains and steady Treasury yields. For the moment, the outlook points to a volatile relief rally as the most probable scenario. Reuters

Which after-hours earnings might shift today’s market trend?

Apple and Amazon will release their financial results after Thursday’s market close. Analysts project Apple’s revenue at about $108.65 billion, up 15.5%. IPhone sales are seen increasing by 20.8%, with margins close to 47.9%. Amazon’s revenue is anticipated to surpass $197 billion, as analysts forecast $1.82 in adjusted earnings per share. Recent options activity suggests Amazon could move around 6% after earnings. These figures are projections and not yet actual results. Disappointing forecasts may disrupt Thursday’s rally in tech stocks. Reuters

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Mateusz Kaczmarek is a financial and technology journalist at TS2.tech, covering stocks, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and global market developments. A graduate of the Poznań University of Economics and Business, he previously worked in financial analysis before moving into business journalism. His reporting focuses on technology companies, market trends and the forces shaping global investment markets. Follow Mateusz Kaczmarek on Google News.