NEW YORK, March 24, 2026, 13:22 (EDT)
Wall Street wobbled late Tuesday morning, with the momentum from Monday’s relief rally starting to fade. At 11:53 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 178.17 points, or 0.39%, sitting at 46,386.64. The S&P 500 ticked higher by 12.94 points, or 0.20%, to 6,593.94, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 44.61 points, or 0.20%, to 21,902.15.
Forget the small moves—traders are still stuck on the same loop: war, oil, rates. Tehran’s rejection of talks with Washington sent Brent back over $100 a barrel, and now Fed futures show no cuts on the table for this year. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil and LNG shipments, is still mostly closed.
Another data point rattled the picture. S&P Global’s flash Composite PMI printed at 51.4 for March—marking the lowest level since April 2025. That’s still technically expansion territory, but the prices-paid reading surged to 63.2, and private-sector jobs edged down to 49.7. “Slower growth and rising inflation,” said Chris Williamson, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s chief business economist, summing up the numbers. Reuters
It seemed like a shift on Monday. Each of the major indexes surged over 1%, marking their strongest one-day gains since Feb. 6, off the back of President Donald Trump’s announcement that he would postpone strikes against Iranian power plants. Still, Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, cautioned, “volatility is likely to continue.” Reuters
The S&P 500 barely budged on Tuesday as energy and financials did much of the heavy lifting. Goldman Sachs, along with Caterpillar, propped up the Dow. Not so for the Nasdaq, which struggled thanks to weakness in tech and communication-services names. “The bigger risk is commodity-related inflation,” said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and adviser at Wealthspire Advisors, after the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.37%. Reuters
Private credit is also showing some cracks. At Ares, investors in the $22.7 billion ASIF fund tried to pull 11.6% of shares, but just 5% of requests will be honored. Apollo, facing similar pressure, imposed the same 5% cap after its $25 billion ADS fund saw 11.2% of shares asked for redemption—mirroring moves that have already affected BlackRock.
Even as some desks pulled back, Barclays went the other way, bumping its 2026 S&P 500 year-end target up to 7,650 from 7,400 and hiking its earnings-per-share view to $321, up from $305. Their call: tech-driven profits and steady U.S. demand could keep ahead of any macro jolt. But the bank did flag a bear scenario—5,900—if oil prices stay elevated and inflation bites deeper.
The risk on the table isn’t subtle. Macquarie has Brent topping out at $150 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed through April. Morningstar’s Greggory Warren, weighing in on BlackRock’s recent withdrawal limit, called it a “warning sign for the industry,” and pointed out that a spike in defaults could drag on both performance and future fundraising. Reuters
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