New York, March 31, 2026, 1:07 PM EDT
U.S. stocks pushed higher Tuesday after the Wall Street Journal said President Donald Trump was open to ending the military operation in Iran even if the key Strait of Hormuz remained mostly shut to shipping—a route that handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil. The Dow was up 1.2% to 45,764.14 by early afternoon, the S&P 500 gained 1.5% to 6,440.34, and the Nasdaq advanced 2.0% to 21,214.90.
The rebound arrived only after a rough stretch this month. Despite the bounce, the S&P 500 remained headed for its steepest quarterly drop since 2022. Both the Dow and Nasdaq had already fallen over 10% from their record highs, landing them firmly in correction territory by Wall Street standards.
March wraps up on Tuesday, sending investors into the next quarter with oil north of $100, financial conditions looking tighter, and diminished expectations for any relief from the Federal Reserve. After the Feb. 28 strikes on Iran, traders have dialed back forecasts for as many as two Fed rate cuts this year. Real Treasury yields are higher, mortgage rates too—tightening is already rippling through the economy.
Oil’s still under strain. Brent crude hovered just below $119 a barrel, closing in on a record monthly jump after a tanker attack near Dubai. Over in the U.S., the average price for gasoline climbed above $4 a gallon—the highest in over three years.
Chipmakers caught a relief bid—Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell all moved higher—but it wasn’t enough to shift the broader sector picture for the month. Energy still stands out as the lone S&P 500 group tracking gains for March. “Relief rallies” can show up when markets get stretched to the downside, said Alonso Munoz, chief investment officer at Hamilton Capital Partners. Reuters
Megacap tech has been the quarter’s main stumbling block. Since the start of the war, the S&P 500’s technology sector is down nearly 8%. Rising Treasury yields, AI disruption jitters in software, and fresh legal scrutiny for some big internet names have all weighed. Matt Orton at Raymond James called the mix a “perfect storm” for tech. Reuters
Tuesday’s numbers offered little reassurance. Job openings in the U.S. slipped to 6.882 million for February, while hiring slid to 4.849 million—the lowest since March 2020. That weak hiring backdrop comes as energy costs are climbing.
On paper, consumers seemed a bit more stable, though hardly at ease. The Conference Board’s confidence index nudged higher to 91.8 for March, but the expectations component slipped to 70.9 and one-year inflation expectations climbed. Dana M Peterson, the board’s chief economist, said confidence had “ticked up again in March,” noting that higher costs remained visible. The Conference Board
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday signaled the central bank is willing to “wait and see” how the oil shock affects both growth and inflation, while noting longer-run inflation expectations remain anchored. The comments dialed back wagers on another rate hike, but stocks, lacking a clear policy backstop if oil prices remain elevated and growth falters, saw little relief. Reuters
Tuesday’s rebound could just as easily vanish. “It’s difficult to look through the noise when the noise is all we have,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. Analysts surveyed by Reuters are projecting oil anywhere from $100 to $190 if the current supply disruptions stick around. Reuters
