NEW YORK, Jan 4, 2026, 14:38 ET — Market closed
- Trump said the U.S. will take temporary control of Venezuela after the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, putting oil and geopolitics back in focus.
- The Dow rose 0.66% on Friday while the S&P 500 edged up and the Nasdaq slipped, led by a 4% jump in chip stocks.
- Investors are bracing for the Jan. 9 U.S. jobs report; CPI and JPMorgan results follow on Jan. 13.
Wall Street heads into Monday’s open after President Donald Trump said the United States had captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and would put the oil-producing nation under temporary American control. Investors said the intervention could trigger a flight to safer assets when trading resumes. Reuters
The timing matters. The market is coming out of holiday-thinned trading into the first full week of the year, when volumes typically pick up and price moves can get sharper.
The U.S. jobs report on Jan. 9 is the first big macro test of 2026, with a Reuters poll forecasting 55,000 new jobs in December and unemployment at 4.6%. Fed funds futures, which reflect rate-cut bets, show little chance of a move at the late-January meeting but about a 50% probability of a quarter-point cut in March, with the benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75%. CPI and JPMorgan’s results are due Jan. 13, and analysts see S&P 500 earnings up 15.5% in 2026, LSEG IBES data show. Reuters
On Friday, the Dow rose 319.10 points, or 0.66%, to 48,382.39, while the S&P 500 gained 0.19% to 6,858.47 and the Nasdaq slipped 0.03% to 23,235.63. Chip stocks led — the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index jumped 4% — and Charles Schwab strategist Joe Mazzola said the market is in a “buy the dip, sell the rip” mode, meaning traders buy declines and sell rallies. Wayfair, Williams-Sonoma and RH climbed after the White House said Trump delayed tariff increases on upholstered furniture, cabinets and vanities for another year, while Tesla fell 2.6% after annual sales dropped for a second year. Reuters
Oil will be the early tell for risk sentiment. Brent and U.S. crude futures settled lower on Friday, but analysts told Reuters prices were likely to rise when futures resume later on Sunday, after Trump said the U.S. would take control of Venezuela and keep an embargo on its exports in place. Venezuelan shipments have been paralysed since Jan. 1 and PDVSA has started cutting output as storage fills, while OPEC+ agreed to keep output policy steady in the first quarter. Reuters
For equities, higher crude would test the market’s assumption that inflation pressures keep easing and rate cuts stay on the table. Energy stocks typically benefit, while transport and some consumer names can face a margin squeeze if fuel costs climb.
The S&P 500 is within reach of record highs but has struggled to break decisively above its late-October level, leaving technical traders watching for a move out of the recent range. With valuations elevated, investors are leaning on profit growth and a steadier policy outlook to keep the rally intact.
But the same jobs report that could bolster rate-cut hopes could rattle stocks if it signals a faster slide in the labor market, especially in high-valuation technology shares. A bigger-than-expected oil move would add another downside risk by rekindling inflation concerns just as earnings season begins.
The next hard marker is Friday’s payrolls report on Jan. 9. Traders then turn quickly to the Jan. 13 CPI release and the start of big-bank earnings, beginning with JPMorgan.
