VXUS and VTI: International Equities Seen Leading in 2026 at 32% Discount to U.S. Market

VXUS and VTI: International Equities Seen Leading in 2026 at 32% Discount to U.S. Market

NEW YORK, August 10, 2026, 12:11 EDT

  • Through August 7, VXUS delivered a 15.99% return this year, while VTI rose by 14.59%.
  • VXUS is valued at 18.3 times its portfolio’s earnings, while VTI stands at 27.0 times.
  • An allocation matching global market weights would increase yearly fund expenses by roughly $76 for each $1 million invested. This figure is an initial estimate calculated from present expense ratios.

Vanguard Total International Stock ETF has delivered stronger performance than Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF so far this year. VXUS recorded a NAV return of 15.99% as of Friday, while VTI posted a 14.59% return. Additionally, the portfolio earnings multiple for VXUS is 32% lower.

Stock chart for NASDAQ:VXUS

This is significant for retirement portfolios with heavy exposure to U.S. stocks. The top ten holdings in VXUS make up 14.43% of its assets, while VTI’s top ten holdings comprise 31.88%.

The lower price corresponds to slower fundamental growth. VXUS’s earnings growth rate stands at 12.6%, compared to 21.9% for VTI. Over the last decade, the U.S. fund has also outperformed by roughly 5.2 percentage points per year.

U.S. markets opened at the dateline. VXUS declined 0.29% to $86.96, while VTI edged up 0.10% to $382.17. Brent crude climbed past $86 as investors monitored tensions in Hormuz and anticipated Wednesday’s inflation data.

Performance measureVXUSVTIVXUS advantage
Monday closing price and change$86.96, -0.29%$382.17, +0.10%
NAV return through Aug. 7, 202615.99%14.59%+1.40 points
12-month NAV return through July 3127.38%19.80%+7.58 points
Annualized return over ten years9.38%14.53%-5.15 points

Intraday pricing was not current. Performance numbers factor in distributions where noted.

The outcome depends on the time frame. Over one year and in 2026, international stocks outperform. U.S. equities continue to lead across the decade.

Lumen Research, writing for Seeking Alpha, assigns a Buy rating to VXUS. The analyst anticipates “high-single-digit to low-double-digit returns” in the next six to 12 months, assuming international profits stay robust. The TipRanks comparison linked in the text describes VXUS and VTI as complementary exposures to different regions. Seeking Alpha

Portfolio metricVXUSVTI
Management fee0.05%0.03%
Total holdings8,7553,531
Price-to-earnings ratio18.3x27.0x
Annualized earnings growth12.6%21.9%
Yield from dividends2.33%1.06%
Top 10 holdings weight14.43%31.88%

Most fund attributes are as of June 30. Expense ratios reflect the most recent data from the prospectus.

VXUS offers a yield that is over double that of VTI. However, the U.S. portfolio shows an earnings growth rate superior by 9.3 points. Investors are placing a higher value on portfolios with stronger recent business results.

Released recommendations are favorable, though they assess varying aspects.

Source and methodInstrumentRecommendation or signalSupporting detail
Lumen Research, fundamental analysisVXUSBuySix-to-12-month return forecast is conditional
TipRanks holdings-weighted analyst modelVTIModerate Buy2,330 Buy, 1,072 Hold, and 67 Sell recommendations
TipRanks technical modelVXUSBuyLeading moving averages suggest Buy; RSI reads Neutral, MACD gives Sell

Seeking Alpha

The VTI recommendation does not come from an ETF analyst directly. TipRanks bases it on analyst ratings of the fund’s component stocks. The VXUS signal is generated by technical analysis, while the Lumen assessment is discretionary.

A strict either-or scenario may not be appropriate in this case. As of June 30, Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (NYSEARCA:VT) maintained 37.93% of its holdings outside the United States. This offers a neutral market-cap standard for pairing VTI with VXUS.

Preliminary pro forma measure100% VTI62.07% VTI / 37.93% VXUS100% VXUS
Expense ratio0.0300%0.0376%0.0500%
Effective portfolio P/E27.0x22.9x18.3x
Dividend yield1.06%1.54%2.33%
Reconstructed top-ten concentration31.88%around 20.4%14.43%
Annual fund cost per $1 million$300approximately $376$500

The combined results are based on initial calculations. P/E is determined using weighted earnings yields. Concentration figures are derived from June 30 portfolio holdings, not accounting for trading activity, taxes or rebalancing.

The difference in fees is minimal. The combined allocation adds approximately $76 per year for each $1 million compared to VTI by itself. It also boosts the indicated dividend yield by around 45%.

The main adjustment affects portfolio structure. The blend reduces projected top-ten concentration by roughly 11.5 percentage points. Its effective P/E drops from 27.0 to around 22.9 times.

Valuation by itself does not serve as a timing instrument. Vanguard stated in July that valuations are unreliable indicators for forecasting short- or medium-term performance. Returns are influenced by earnings, dividends, and currency fluctuations as well.

Risks persist. VXUS introduces exposure to foreign currencies, geopolitical factors, and emerging markets. If the dollar strengthens, some of its recent outperformance could be undone. Meanwhile, VTI is exposed to different risks, including elevated valuations and more concentrated holdings.

The data does not indicate any lasting victor. Instead, it points to a balanced global allocation as preferable. Investors are able to significantly lower valuation and concentration risks with minimal extra fund expense.

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Further analysis

Does VXUS continue to outperform U.S. stocks in 2026?
Yes. VXUS posted a year-to-date total return of 15.99% through August 7, while the S&P 500 achieved a 14.09% return, lagging by 1.90 percentage points. At 15:45 UTC, VXUS was trading at $86.90, marking a 0.36% decline. The price stood 1.94% under the 52-week high of $88.62.
Has the surge led to VXUS becoming pricey?
As of June 30, the portfolio was trading at 18.3 times earnings, up from 16.9 times at the end of March. The price-to-book ratio also climbed, reaching 2.3 times compared to 2.1 previously. Although valuation increased, whether it is “expensive” depends on future profits and interest rates. Annual fees remain steady at 0.05%. Vanguard Mexico
Despite its wide exposure, which region dominates VXUS holdings?
VXUS comprised 8,755 stocks, but sector distribution was uneven. On June 30, financials, technology and industrials made up 57.1%. Taiwan and South Korea combined accounted for 16.6%. Wide diversification does not eliminate regional or chip-cycle exposure.
Are currency movements currently supporting VXUS returns?
Today, the dollar index was at 99.76, close to a two-month trough. This level is roughly 1.3% higher than where it stood on January 2. According to this measure, the currency is still a modest headwind for 2026. The DXY does not fully correspond to VXUS’s entire currency composition.
What is the significance of China risk at present?
On June 30, China accounted for 6.7% of VXUS. Exports in July surged 24%, with a trade surplus rising to $113 billion. However, second-quarter GDP expanded by 4.3%, and retail sales remained subdued. Emerging trade barriers could sharply separate successful and struggling exporters. China is significant, but has a limited influence in VXUS.
Jerzy Lewandowski

Jerzy Lewandowski is a senior markets editor at TS2.tech covering stocks, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and global financial markets. He studied economics at the University of Warsaw and previously worked in investment analysis before moving into financial journalism. His daily coverage focuses on the trends and events that matter most to investors worldwide. Follow Jerzy Lewandowski on Google News.

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