NEW YORK, August 6, 2026, 10:13 EDT — Cryptocurrency markets remain active; U.S. cash equities begin trading.
- XRP was last at $1.059, hovering just 0.1% below the key $1.06 level.
- XRP gained 4.33% on XLM in the past seven days, as XLM lost ground.
- As of Wednesday afternoon, the Senate had not filed a cloture motion, keeping the outcome for the CLARITY Act catalyst in limbo.
XRP traded close to $1.06 on Thursday. A more pronounced move appeared in the pair trade, with XRP rising 4.33% versus XLM over seven days. The divergence indicates market participants are distinguishing between the two payments tokens, even as both face similar policy exposure.
XRP was trading at $1.059, putting it 0.1% under the pivot identified by analyst Ali Martinez. His initial bullish target stands at $1.35, presenting a potential 27.5% gain. The primary bearish target at $0.80 suggests a possible 24.5% decline. The near-term risk and reward remain close to evenly matched.
Cautious positioning remains in focus. The long-to-short ratio for XRP stood at 0.75, compared to 0.68 for XLM. Additionally, XLM funding showed significant weakness.
| Relative-market measure | Latest reading | Investor signal |
|---|---|---|
| XRP spot price | $1.059 | Trading just shy of major support level |
| XRP/XLM exchange rate | 6.54 XLM per XRP | XRP maintains relative strength |
| Seven-day XRP/XLM change | +4.33% | XRP shows marked outperformance against XLM |
| XLM weekly performance | Nearly -7% | More pronounced downside risk |
At 03:55 GMT, FXStreet reported XRP at $1.04 and XLM at $0.162. The two cryptocurrencies remained under their 50-, 100- and 200-day exponential moving averages. XLM was further below its 50-day average than XRP.
| Token | Source-time price | 50-day EMA | Gap to 50-day | 100-day EMA | 200-day EMA | RSI | Immediate support |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | $1.040 | $1.110 | -6.3% | $1.190 | $1.380 | 39 | $1.000 |
| XLM | $0.162 | $0.181 | -10.5% | $0.183 | $0.193 | 32 | $0.142 |
Martinez referred to $1.06 as the “make-or-break zone.” He wrote: “Hold it, and bulls can target $1.35 and $1.64. Lose it, and the path opens toward $0.80 and potentially $0.62.” TheStreet
Flow metrics did not indicate a recovery. Spot XRP ETFs saw outflows totaling $3.58 million on Wednesday. CoinDesk reported XLM’s annualized perpetual funding rate at negative 23%.
| Positioning metric | XRP | XLM |
|---|---|---|
| Long/short ratio | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| Funding fee | +0.0013% | -0.0260% |
| 12-month perpetual funding | — | Estimated -23% |
| Wednesday spot ETF net flow | -$3.58 million | — |
Policy drivers are still present, though near-term action is not expected. The Senate Banking Committee moved the CLARITY Act forward in May with a 15-9 vote. On July 22, Senator Cynthia Lummis published the committee’s consolidated text.
The process has yet to move forward. Senate Majority Leader John Thune had not submitted a cloture motion as of Wednesday afternoon. Outstanding issues included ethics, illicit finance, and wording from the Agriculture Committee.
Analyst recommendations remain tentative instead of strongly bullish.
| Analyst | Recommendation or stance | Positive trigger | Negative trigger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ali Martinez | Neutral around the pivot | Stays above $1.06; aiming for $1.35, then $1.64 | Drops below $1.06; exposes $0.80, followed by $0.62 |
| Manish Chhetri, FXStreet | Short-term downtrend | XRP moves back over $1.11; XLM moves past $0.173 and $0.193 | XRP falls under $1.00; XLM falls below $0.142 |
| Jaret Seiberg, TD Cowen | Downbeat on immediate policy events | Cloture deal reached; sufficient votes to advance | Delays push beyond August recess |
| Matt Hougan, Bitwise | Positive outlook longer term; guarded in near term | SEC rules or Congressional action later | Prolonged lack of clarity discourages institutions |
Jaret Seiberg noted the Senate might lack the required 60 votes by as many as 10. Bitwise investment chief Matt Hougan suggested crypto could “find a way forward” via SEC rulemaking. He also said postponement may discourage professional investors. The Block
The investor perspective is more limited compared to the optimistic view on legislative developments. Regulatory flexibility is a supportive factor for XRP when compared to XLM, but this does not indicate strong momentum. Both cryptocurrencies continue to trade under key trend indicators.
Risks: Rapid progress in the Senate, a return of fund inflows, or a widespread crypto rally could trigger short covering. On the other hand, if XRP drops under $1.00 or XLM slips beneath $0.142, additional downside technical targets would be at risk.
Short-term traders are monitoring three key factors. XRP should maintain support above $1.06 or protect the $1.00 level. XLM aims to recover $0.173, while in Washington, a procedural vote is pending.
