Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) ended Monday’s session near the top of its recent range, then barely budged in extended trading—an early sign that investors are still digesting last week’s Autonomy & AI headlines while fresh analyst notes continue to reshape expectations.
As of 7:44 p.m. ET, Rivian shares were down about 0.37% after hours to $18.63 after closing regular trading at $18.70 (+1.52%). [1]
Rivian after-hours stock price: the key numbers from today’s session
Here’s what stands out from Monday’s tape:
- Close (4:00 p.m. ET): $18.70 (+1.52%)
- After-hours (7:44 p.m. ET): $18.63 (-0.37%)
- Day range:$18.37 to $19.58
- Volume:~62.13 million shares [2]
That combination—big intraday range + heavy volume + quiet after-hours—often signals a market that’s still actively repositioning, but not reacting to any new “bombshell” headlines after the close.
Why Rivian stock was up today: Wall Street is repricing the “autonomy + software” story
Monday’s move wasn’t about a new delivery report or earnings release. It was about research notes and narrative—specifically, whether Rivian should be valued more like a traditional automaker or more like a software-defined vehicle platform.
1) Goldman Sachs lifts its price target (but stays neutral)
A widely circulated catalyst today: Goldman Sachs raised its price target on Rivian to $16 from $13 while maintaining a Neutral rating, according to MarketBeat’s summary of the note and the market reaction. [3]
That’s important for two reasons:
- It’s another data point that Wall Street is raising estimates and targets following Rivian’s autonomy messaging.
- But it also highlights the push-pull: even after a target increase, $16 is below where the stock closed today.
2) Evercore reiterates Outperform—but calls the competitive bar high
Evercore ISI reiterated an Outperform rating with an $18 price target, noting Rivian’s autonomy platform is “headed in the right direction,” but also suggesting that much of what Rivian outlined may not be radically ahead of peers’ trajectories. [4]
Evercore also emphasized the strategic significance of Rivian moving toward in-house silicon manufactured by TSMC and cited performance metrics for the chip/system discussed around AI Day. [5]
3) A technical milestone: Rivian’s RS Rating jumps
Investor’s Business Daily reported that Rivian’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating rose to 91 on Dec. 15, up from 84, placing it in a top performance tier on a 1–99 scale—though IBD also noted the stock lacks a clear entry point at the moment. [6]
The backdrop investors are still trading: Rivian’s Autonomy & AI Day
The reason Rivian is suddenly being discussed alongside “AI” and “autonomy” names is straightforward: the company used its Autonomy & AI Day to lay out a vertically integrated roadmap that touches chips, software, sensors, and subscription pricing.
What Rivian announced (and why it matters to the stock)
Reuters reported that Rivian unveiled:
- A custom self-driving chip (the Rivian Autonomy Processor) as it shifts away from Nvidia processors
- A paid driver-assistance package called Autonomy+ priced at $2,500 one-time or $49.99/month
- A longer-term ambition toward Level 4 autonomy, supported by a foundational AI model Rivian calls the Large Driving Model [7]
On Rivian’s own product page, the company positions Autonomy+ as:
- Available in February 2026
- $49.99/month or $2,500 one-time, after a 60-day trial
- Enabling hands-free assisted driving across 3.5 million miles of roads in the U.S. and Canada, alongside feature updates over time [8]
For investors, the big idea is that subscription software revenue can carry higher margins and more predictable recurring cash flow than one-time vehicle sales—if adoption is meaningful and the feature set stays competitive.
Fundamentals check: what Rivian last reported (and what it guided)
Even with the stock being traded on autonomy narrative today, Rivian’s underlying financial trajectory still matters—especially for a company that remains in investment mode.
From Rivian’s third-quarter 2025 financial results release (dated Nov. 4, 2025):
- Consolidated revenue:$1,558 million (a 78% year-over-year increase) [9]
- Consolidated gross profit:$24 million for the quarter [10]
- Vehicles produced:10,720 [11]
- Vehicles delivered:13,201 [12]
- Software and services revenue:$416 million (up 324% year over year, per the release) [13]
Rivian also reiterated that R2 remains on track for deliveries in the first half of 2026. [14]
And critically, the company’s 2025 annual guidance (as shown in the release) included:
- Vehicles delivered:41,500–43,500
- Adjusted EBITDA:($2,000) million to ($2,250) million
- Capital expenditures:$1,800–$1,900 million [15]
These numbers are part of why the market is so sensitive to any credible “path to higher-margin revenue” (like subscriptions) and any credible “cost-down story” (like custom silicon and platform reuse).
Analyst forecasts and consensus targets: why the stock is “ahead of the spreadsheet” right now
One tension traders will keep running into: RIVN is now trading above many aggregated Wall Street target averages.
- Finviz shows a target price around $15.68 and an overall recommendation score around 2.81 (commonly interpreted as closer to Hold than Buy on many such scales). [16]
- MarketBeat’s recap of analyst consensus points to a Hold view with a consensus target around $14.86. [17]
- TipRanks likewise described a consensus Hold/Neutral stance and cited an average target in the mid-$14s, implying downside from current levels—despite highlighting a more bullish long-term investor view. [18]
This doesn’t mean Rivian can’t go higher. It does mean that, heading into tomorrow’s open, the “easy part” of the rerating may already be in the price—and further upside likely depends on either:
- More upgrades / higher targets, or
- new evidence (product execution, take-rate data, margins, delivery momentum) that forces models to change.
Risks investors are weighing tonight (and could reprice quickly)
1) R2 launch execution risk and cash burn concerns
Morgan Stanley’s recent downgrade (published Dec. 8) is still circulating widely in today’s Rivian coverage because it attacks the core 2026 setup: the R2 launch.
According to Investing.com’s summary of that note, Morgan Stanley cited headwinds such as slowing EV adoption and the loss of the $7,500 tax credit, and forecasted:
- $2.9 billion adjusted EBIT loss in 2026
- $4.2 billion free cash flow burn in 2026 [19]
Whether one agrees or not, it’s the kind of bearish framework that can quickly regain influence if the broader market turns “risk-off.”
2) Recalls and safety headlines remain a recurring overhang
Rivian also has recall-related headlines in the background. Reuters reported earlier this month that Rivian planned to recall 34,824 electric delivery vehicles (EDVs) tied to a seat belt pretensioner cable issue, with an over-the-air update and inspections/replacements where necessary. [20]
Rivian’s own support page for the EDV recall describes the problem as damage from repeated misuse and confirms it applies to certain 2022–2025 EDV vehicles. [21]
3) High short interest can amplify swings
Rivian remains a stock where positioning can matter as much as fundamentals in the short run. Finviz lists short float around 18.62% (with short interest shown at roughly 149.64M shares). [22]
That can increase volatility in both directions—especially if a new analyst note, macro headline, or company update hits premarket.
What to know before the market opens tomorrow (Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025)
Here’s the practical pre-open checklist for Rivian shareholders and watchers.
1) Watch whether premarket holds above key “line in the sand” levels
From today’s action, the levels traders will likely focus on first:
- $19.60: the recent 52-week high area (touched Dec. 12) [23]
- $18.37: today’s intraday low [24]
- $18.70: today’s close [25]
A steady premarket above the close would suggest the market is comfortable holding the autonomy-driven rerating. A break below today’s low would hint that momentum traders are leaving the party early.
2) Expect more target changes—because Rivian is now “above consensus”
With the stock closing at $18.70 while many consensus targets cluster in the mid-$14s to mid-$15s, the next incremental move often comes from either:
- a new wave of upgrades, or
- more cautious notes warning that price has outrun fundamentals. [26]
If you see premarket strength tomorrow, check whether it’s tied to another brokerage update rather than broad-market movement.
3) Macro data risk is real this week—and Rivian is a high-beta name
Reuters reported Monday’s broader market was choppy as investors positioned for a busy week of key economic data, including delayed jobs data and other releases that could shift rate expectations. [27]
IBD’s pre-open coverage also flagged that shutdown-delayed economic reports (including jobs data) are back on deck, which can move yields and shift appetite for high-growth, high-volatility stocks. [28]
For Rivian specifically: if rates jump or risk appetite fades, RIVN can move more than the index.
4) The autonomy narrative is “hot”—but it’s also crowded
Rivian’s new AI/autonomy positioning puts it in the same conversation as companies whose stocks can dominate the daily news cycle. Reuters noted tech names like Tesla and Nvidia rebounded Monday as investors repositioned in choppy trading. [29]
That matters because Rivian is increasingly being traded not only as an EV maker, but as a hybrid EV/AI story—and that can bring both upside momentum and abrupt reversals.
Bottom line heading into Tuesday’s open
Rivian stock is closing out Dec. 15 with momentum intact, after-hours calm, and a market still actively debating whether Rivian’s autonomy roadmap deserves a higher multiple than a typical automaker.
The near-term question for tomorrow morning isn’t “Is autonomy exciting?”—the market has already answered that by pushing RIVN close to its highs. The question is: does the next wave of analyst work (and the next wave of macro headlines) support holding these levels, or does it trigger a valuation reset back toward consensus targets? [30]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.investors.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. rivian.com, 9. cdn.prod.nntech.io, 10. cdn.prod.nntech.io, 11. cdn.prod.nntech.io, 12. cdn.prod.nntech.io, 13. cdn.prod.nntech.io, 14. cdn.prod.nntech.io, 15. cdn.prod.nntech.io, 16. finviz.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. rivian.com, 22. finviz.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. stockanalysis.com, 25. stockanalysis.com, 26. finviz.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.investors.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. stockanalysis.com
