Updated: 23.12.2025 — 5:04
Natural gas markets are closing in on year-end with a familiar mix of winter weather risk, record LNG pull, and stubbornly strong production—but on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, the bullish forces briefly overwhelmed the bears.
In the U.S., Henry Hub front-month futures surged into the mid-$4s per million British thermal units (mmBtu), after trading swung from an early single-digit gain to a double-digit move later in the day. Reuters pricing showed the front month around $4.41/mmBtu on the session, up sharply on the day with an intraday range roughly $3.94–$4.45. [1]
Across the Atlantic, benchmark Dutch TTF gas eased below €28/MWh in thin pre-holiday trading, with Norway and LNG supply cushioning the market even as temperatures are expected to turn colder in parts of Europe. [2]
Below is a detailed roundup of the key news, forecasts, and market analysis shaping natural gas on 23.12.2025—and the catalysts traders are watching next.
U.S. natural gas: a volatile rally fueled by LNG demand and shifting weather signals
Morning move: futures rise on record LNG feedgas and higher near-term demand estimates
Early Tuesday, U.S. natural gas futures pushed higher as flows to LNG export plants hit fresh highs and forecasters upgraded the next two weeks’ demand outlook.
Reuters reporting cited record-level feedgas flows and an improved demand projection from LSEG. In morning trade, the January NYMEX contract was up around 4% and trading near $4.105/mmBtu, supported by expectations that gas demand (including exports) could rise from roughly 127.9 bcfd this week to about 136.0 bcfd over the next two weeks. [3]
That demand uplift matters because the U.S. gas market is increasingly balanced at the margin by export pull, not just domestic heating loads.
Later momentum: the rally accelerates as LNG sets a floor and “cold risk” returns
Later in the session, market commentary pointed to a classic year-end dynamic: thinner liquidity, more stop-driven moves, and fast-changing weather runs.
A separate market analysis described a late-day surge, with January futures trading around $4.370/mmBtu and up more than 10% at one point, as record LNG demand collided with colder revisions in parts of the U.S. outlook. [4]
While forecasts still include warmer-than-normal periods (a bearish signal for heating demand), traders are increasingly sensitive to any model shift that reintroduces cold into the highly populated U.S. East—because that’s where residential and commercial demand can spike quickly.
Record LNG feedgas is the headline driver—and it’s not just “strong,” it’s structural
The most important U.S. gas storyline on December 23 is simple: LNG export demand remains near full throttle.
Reuters-linked reporting said LNG feedgas was on track to reach about 18.6 bcfd on Tuesday (a record area), supported by higher intake at major facilities including Cameron, Freeport, and Calcasieu Pass. [5]
This isn’t a short-term quirk. The EIA’s most recent weekly market update highlighted just how large U.S. LNG logistics have become, noting that 33 LNG vessels departed U.S. ports in a single week (Dec. 11–17) with a combined carrying capacity of 126 Bcf. [6]
Why it matters for price: When LNG feedgas stays elevated, it reduces the market’s ability to “relax” even during mild weather breaks—because export terminals keep pulling molecules regardless of whether Chicago or New York is having a warm spell.
Production is also at (or near) record highs—keeping the rally on a tight leash
Even as prices spiked Tuesday, the supply side continues to impose a ceiling on sustained upside.
Reuters-cited figures put Lower 48 output around 111.1 bcfd in December—an all-time high area—illustrating that U.S. producers and infrastructure are still delivering large volumes into the system. [7]
That supply strength is showing up in storage resilience as well:
- The EIA reported working gas in storage at 3,579 Bcf (week ending Dec. 12), after net withdrawals of 167 Bcf. Inventories were slightly above the five-year average and slightly below last year at that point. [8]
This combination—very strong exports and very strong production—is why the market can rally sharply on weather risk, but also why those rallies can struggle to hold if the cold fails to materialize.
Europe: TTF slips below €28/MWh as Norway and LNG offset cold-weather demand risk
European gas prices stayed relatively contained on December 23, even as the market monitored colder conditions.
A Reuters-sourced European market report showed:
- Dutch TTF front-month down to about €27.95/MWh (around $9.61/mmBtu) by mid-morning,
- UK day-ahead slightly lower,
- trading described as narrow-range and thin ahead of the Christmas holiday. [9]
Europe’s storage: still comfortable, but trending lower into winter
The same report pegged EU storage at 67.24% full, a key benchmark because Europe’s winter price sensitivity rises sharply when inventories fall. [10]
An Engie market note cited in the report suggested fundamentals were currently bearish, but warned that risk factors—particularly on the U.S. supply side—could still flip sentiment if prices keep falling. [11]
And with Europe entering winter with lower storage than recent years, an S&P Global LNG analyst quoted in the report said buyers may be compelled to increase LNG procurement in January and February. [12]
Norway supply: a key stabilizer for Europe
Norway remains Europe’s largest natural gas supplier, and on December 23 Reuters reported that Norwegian oil and gas output in November beat official forecasts, with gas output slightly down year-on-year but above forecast. [13]
Steady Norwegian flows—plus LNG arrivals—help explain why TTF can remain subdued even with winter weather risk in the background.
Middle East supply shock: Iraq says Iranian gas supplies halted
One of the most consequential geopolitical gas headlines on December 23 came from Iraq.
Reuters reported that Iraq’s electricity ministry said gas supplies from Iran have been halted, and the disruption knocked an estimated 4,000–4,500 megawatts out of Iraq’s power system. [14]
While this is primarily a regional power-generation story (and not a direct “global price setter” like U.S. LNG or TTF), it underscores how quickly gas-linked power systems can become fragile when pipeline supplies are interrupted—especially in peak-demand periods.
Global LNG demand: Myanmar’s return adds a new (small but notable) source of import demand
In Asia, Reuters reported Myanmar is expected to resume LNG imports next year after receiving a partial cargo last month—ending a more than four-year hiatus. [15]
Key details from the report:
- Myanmar is projected to import about 0.4 million tons of LNG in 2026, according to Kpler,
- tied to restarted or upgraded LNG-to-power projects totaling around 500 MW. [16]
In pure volume terms, Myanmar is not big enough to move global LNG pricing alone—but it’s another sign that LNG-to-power can re-emerge quickly when domestic gas declines or power shortages bite.
Policy and industry signals: rigs, regulation, and power-market shifts
U.S. drilling: rig counts edge up, but the bigger signal is the longer-term price incentive
Reuters reported that U.S. drillers added rigs for the first time in three weeks, with the total rig count rising to 545, while gas rigs held at 127. [17]
The same report highlighted that the EIA expects natural gas production to grow, helped by a sharp rebound in spot prices during 2025—an incentive that can translate into more drilling activity if producers believe higher prices will stick. [18]
Australia: new gas reservation scheme targets domestic supply from 2027
In another major policy development dated December 23, reporting in Australia said the government’s new gas reservation scheme will require LNG exporters from 2027 to reserve 15–25% of output for domestic use (roughly 200–350 petajoules annually), with analysts flagging uneven impacts across exporters. [19]
This is a longer-dated policy lever, but markets pay attention because restrictions on export flexibility can reshape contract behavior, upstream investment decisions, and eventually regional LNG availability.
Offshore wind pause: potential knock-on effect for U.S. gas-fired power
Reuters-linked reporting also noted that the Trump administration suspended leases for several large offshore wind projects under construction off the U.S. East Coast—an action that could increase reliance on gas-fired generation if renewable build-out slows. [20]
For natural gas, the key takeaway is not “one project,” but the direction of travel: power-sector demand can shift materially if policy changes alter the generation mix.
Forecast and outlook: what traders are watching next
Here are the market indicators most likely to set direction after the December 23 move:
1) Weather models and “late-January cold risk”
- The near-term forecast still includes warmer-than-normal stretches, but traders are reacting to any incremental shift colder in major demand centers—especially the U.S. East. [21]
2) LNG feedgas: can flows stay near 18.6 bcfd?
- With LNG feedgas at record levels, even small disruptions (maintenance, commissioning changes, pipeline constraints) can move price expectations quickly. [22]
3) Storage trajectory
- U.S. storage remains close to the historical norm (EIA: 3,579 Bcf as of Dec. 12), which keeps the market sensitive to whether upcoming withdrawals land above or below seasonal averages. [23]
4) Europe’s storage drawdown pace
- European storage around 67% is not “alarm level,” but the speed of winter drawdowns—combined with Norway flows—will shape TTF volatility into January and February. [24]
5) 2026 LNG supply wave and pricing pressure
Looking beyond the immediate weather/LNG headlines, longer-horizon analysis still points to a potential loosening of global LNG balances in 2026 as new supply ramps—an anchor that can temper longer-dated price expectations even when near-term volatility spikes. [25]
Bottom line
Natural gas on 23.12.2025 was a textbook example of a market being pulled in opposite directions:
- Bullish: record LNG feedgas and periodic cold-weather risk
- Bearish: record U.S. production and storage still near normal
- Europe: capped by steady Norway/LNG supply despite winter demand
- Geopolitics: localized disruptions (Iraq/Iran) reinforcing energy security concerns without immediately repricing global benchmarks
For now, the market’s center of gravity remains LNG: as long as U.S. export pull stays near record levels, even mild weather can have a harder time pushing prices down for long—but with production this strong, sustaining rallies still requires the weather to cooperate. [26]
References
1. jp.reuters.com, 2. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 3. www.bairdmaritime.com, 4. www.fxempire.com, 5. www.bairdmaritime.com, 6. www.eia.gov, 7. www.bairdmaritime.com, 8. www.eia.gov, 9. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 10. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 11. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 12. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.theaustralian.com.au, 20. www.bairdmaritime.com, 21. www.bairdmaritime.com, 22. www.bairdmaritime.com, 23. www.eia.gov, 24. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.bairdmaritime.com
