NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 9:40 a.m. ET — Market Closed
With U.S. markets shut for the weekend, investors tracking Brazil are using Sunday’s pause to game out what matters most when the São Paulo Stock Exchange (B3) reopens: a thin, year-end tape; headline risk around Petrobras; and global crosscurrents from oil, metals, and expectations for 2026 rate cuts.
Friday’s post-Christmas session in Brazil offered a familiar late-December recipe—lighter liquidity, modest index moves, and outsized sensitivity to big macro headlines. The Ibovespa, B3’s benchmark equity index, finished slightly higher on the day, supported by gains across several cyclical and defensive pockets. 1
Ibovespa recap: a quiet gain, but telling leadership
Brazilian equities closed Friday with the Bovespa up 0.12%, according to Investing.com’s market wrap, reflecting a session where “up” mattered more than “how much”—a typical feature of holiday trading. 1
Among the session’s notable movers, CPFL Energia (CPFE3) rose 3.44% to close at an all-time high, while Braskem (BRKM5) and Cosan (CSAN3) also posted solid gains. On the downside, Companhia Brasileira de Distribuição (PCAR3), Totvs (TOTS3), and Rede D’Or (RDOR3) were among the laggards. 1
For investors, the “who” matters because it hints at what’s being accumulated into year-end positioning. Utilities strength (via CPFL Energia) can signal a bid for stability, while industrial and commodity-linked names often swing with global growth expectations, China headlines, and the U.S. dollar.
On levels, Brazil’s main stock index rose to around 160,855 points on Dec. 26, according to Trading Economics. 2
Petrobras strike risk: the headline that can move the index
One of the most immediate Brazil-specific issues heading into the next B3 session is labor risk at Petrobras—still a heavyweight in the Ibovespa and a key driver of local sentiment.
Reuters reported late Friday that Sindipetro-NF—one of the largest unions representing Petrobras workers—rejected Petrobras’ latest proposal to end a strike that had lasted 12 days. The union represents roughly 25,000 workers, including employees on offshore platforms in the Campos Basin, a major producing region. Petrobras said the strike had not affected production so far, citing the use of contingency crews. 3
For equity investors, there are two practical implications:
- Operational risk vs. narrative risk: Even if barrels are still flowing, strikes can increase uncertainty around costs, staffing, and future negotiations—often enough to change how quickly money rotates in or out of the name.
- Oil sensitivity is back in the spotlight: Petrobras trades as a hybrid—part oil company, part political/labor headline machine. In thin markets, the headline machine can dominate.
Oil and China steel policy: why commodities still run Brazil’s weather
Brazilian equities remain unusually exposed to global commodities through mega-cap leaders (notably oil and mining). That’s why two global headlines from the last 48 hours matter disproportionately for the next B3 open.
Oil: steady prices, but oversupply anxiety
Reuters reported oil prices were steady in thin post-holiday trading on Dec. 26, with Brent around $62.36 per barrel and WTI around $58.54, as the market weighed geopolitical risks against persistent concerns about supply and oversupply heading into the new year. 4
For B3, that’s a reminder that Petrobras’ share direction can be tugged simultaneously by (a) labor developments and (b) crude’s macro trend—especially when liquidity is light and investors reduce risk into the turn.
China: steel output constraints could reshape the 2026 narrative
Reuters also reported China pledged to keep regulating crude steel output during 2026–2030 and to prevent illegal capacity additions, as part of efforts tied to carbon emissions control and industrial overcapacity. The report flagged weak domestic demand (notably property), while also noting policy changes that could affect steel-related trade flows. 5
That matters for Brazil because China-linked demand expectations are the gravitational field for iron ore sentiment—and iron ore sentiment often becomes “Vale sentiment,” even when the real-world fundamentals are more nuanced.
Global risk appetite: why Wall Street still sets the mood
Even for Brazil-focused investors, the U.S. tape and rates expectations remain the world’s emotional thermostat.
Reuters described Friday’s U.S. session as a light-volume, post-Christmas day where major indexes ended nearly unchanged and remained near record territory. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, characterized the move as a pause after a strong run and emphasized the market’s focus on the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window. 6
Separately, Reuters’ global markets wrap highlighted the same theme—indexes near record peaks—while noting precious metals hit records amid expectations of future rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. MUFG commodities analyst Soojin Kim said in a note that the rally could continue, supported by bullish bank forecasts, physical demand, and persistent geopolitical/monetary uncertainties. 7
For B3 traders, the translation is straightforward:
- If global equity risk stays firm, Brazil can benefit from carry and “EM beta” flows—especially when the dollar is softer and rate-cut expectations build.
- If global rates volatility spikes, Brazil often becomes a source of liquidity (meaning: it can get sold fast).
Corporate and deal headlines: Semantix enters the global frame
In Brazil-linked corporate news over the last 48 hours, Reuters reported that Atos signed a binding agreement to sell its Latin American operations to Brazilian tech company Semantix, part of Atos’ broader restructuring. The business includes about 2,800 employees across six countries, including Brazil, and the companies did not disclose financial terms. 8
Even when a deal doesn’t immediately move the Ibovespa, M&A headlines can matter in thin markets because they refresh investor attention on sector narratives—here, enterprise tech and data/AI services—right as allocators are deciding what themes they want exposure to in 2026.
If B3 is closed now, what should investors know before the next session?
Because it’s Sunday, B3 is closed—and the bigger story is that Brazil is entering a compressed, end-of-year stretch where calendar mechanics can matter as much as fundamentals.
B3 has already warned investors to plan around year-end shutdowns: the exchange said it had no operations on Dec. 24–25 and will have no trading on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1, resuming normal operations on Friday, Jan. 2. 9
That leaves a narrow window for positioning adjustments before the year turns—typically boosting:
- Liquidity risk (wider spreads, more slippage),
- Overreaction risk (headlines moving prices more than usual),
- Gap risk (bigger opens after closures).
What to watch when B3 reopens: Brazil data and rate expectations
Macro catalysts are also lining up quickly.
Two scheduled data points on Monday, Dec. 29 are especially relevant to rates and FX pricing:
- FGV IGP-M inflation index (Dec.) — Investing.com lists a market forecast of 0.15% (month-over-month) versus 0.27% previously. 10
- BCB Focus Market Readout — a weekly snapshot of economists’ expectations for inflation, growth, FX, and the Selic path. Investing.com lists the release for Dec. 29, and Brazil’s central bank describes Focus as a regular Monday publication summarizing expectations collected through the prior Friday. 11
Myfxbook’s Brazil economic calendar also flags additional releases around the same window (including labor and fiscal updates). 12
Why it matters: in late-December trading, the fastest way to move Brazil’s equity index is often through the currency and rate complex. A hotter inflation signal can lift yields and strengthen the real (sometimes pressuring rate-sensitive equities), while softer inflation can support a “rates down / equities up” narrative—unless markets interpret it as a growth scare.
2026 outlook: the macro base case investors are using
Looking beyond the next session, the medium-term debate is increasingly about when Brazil’s easing cycle begins and how that filters into equities.
In its December 2025 outlook, BBVA Research forecast Brazil’s GDP growth at 2.2% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, with inflation likely ending 2025 around 4.4% and 2026 around 3.8%. BBVA also argued that “a monetary easing cycle is expected to begin in early 2026,” with the Selic rate potentially ending 2026 around 11.50%, while warning that pre-election fiscal dynamics could add upside risks. The report’s listed author is Enestor Dos Santos, Principal Economist at BBVA Research. 13
For B3 investors, that framework typically points to three scenarios to watch:
- Easing + stable FX: supportive for domestic cyclicals and rate-sensitive sectors.
- Easing + weaker BRL: supportive for exporters, more complicated for inflation-linked names.
- Delayed easing: supportive for carry in fixed income, but can cap equity multiples.
Bottom line for the next B3 session
With B3 currently closed and year-end closures approaching, Brazil’s next open is likely to be shaped less by “big volume conviction” and more by headline sensitivity—especially Petrobras labor developments, commodity-linked swings, and the latest signals from inflation and expectations surveys.
The smart pre-open posture is simple: respect liquidity, prioritize catalysts, and assume that in the last trading days of the year, small news can throw big shadows.
