NEW YORK, Feb 16, 2026, 12:55 (ET) — Market closed.
Gasoline futures in the U.S. ticked up Monday, with trading muted by the holiday. At the pump, the national average stayed near $2.93 a gallon.
The shift isn’t exactly dramatic, but it comes at a tricky time for fuel. Refiners are gearing up for spring maintenance, with the sector creeping toward that annual transition to summer-grade gasoline.
The first major snapshot of U.S. gasoline inventories this week is running late, which has left prices vulnerable to swings from crude news or unexpected refinery hiccups.
Regular gasoline averaged $2.929 a gallon nationwide on Monday, AAA reported, barely edging up from Sunday and sitting roughly 2.7 cents above where it stood a week prior. Still, prices are tracking beneath last year’s mark.
March RBOB gasoline contracts, which serve as the New York Harbor wholesale standard, traded near $1.9186 per gallon, gaining 0.76 cents for the day, Barchart data showed.
Crude oil prices edged higher, with traders eyeing the launch of U.S.-Iran nuclear discussions in Geneva on Tuesday and looking for any cues from OPEC+, which reconvenes March 1 after taking a break from raising output. Tamas Varga at PVM pointed to ongoing disruption worries as a stabilizing force for prices. SEB analysts noted that if Iran tensions escalate, Brent could climb to $80 a barrel, but if those tensions subside, prices might fall closer to $60.
U.S. equities took a pause for Washington’s Birthday, the NYSE holiday calendar shows. Markets reopen Tuesday.
The holiday shakes up energy futures logistics as well. CME Group isn’t publishing or calculating settlement prices on Monday for several markets, including NYMEX — home to U.S. gasoline futures.
California’s supply outlook is still unpredictable. As Bloomberg noted, the state’s been importing gasoline routed through the Bahamas with in-state refining on the decline. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan warned that refinery shutdowns ahead might tack on anywhere from 5 to 15 cents a gallon for drivers.
The direction isn’t set. Should geopolitical tensions ease and send crude prices down, or if refineries ramp up output faster than anticipated, wholesale gasoline could slide, holding pump prices close to their winter lows.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration drops its weekly petroleum numbers Thursday, Feb. 19, with the release pushed back because of the federal holiday. Gasoline stockpiles and refinery throughput will get close attention—traders want a clear gauge on just how stretched the fuel market looks as February winds down.
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