NEW YORK, March 5, 2026, 13:35 EST — Regular session
- NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures jumped roughly 6% for the day, hitting $2.67 a gallon.
- U.S. average pump prices jumped almost 27 cents over the past week to $3.25, according to AAA.
- Refiners saw mixed trading, with investors balancing stronger margins against concerns over demand and shifting policy risk.
NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures surged Thursday, hitting $2.67 a gallon after climbing roughly 6% as oil prices rallied on renewed supply concerns tied to the Iran conflict.
This shift is significant—gasoline prices tend to stand out in the U.S. economy. They hit consumers quickly, often rippling through freight and travel expenses as spring demand begins to pick up, potentially fueling broader inflation.
AAA reported that regular gasoline prices nationwide surged almost 27 cents over the past week, landing at $3.25 per gallon. The agency pointed to pricier crude, fallout from the Middle East conflict, and the usual pivot to summer-blend fuel as drivers behind the spike.
Oil climbed again as traders zeroed in on Gulf shipping and production threats. “Crude prices are going to be very sensitive” if there’s trouble at the Strait of Hormuz, said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. He noted that even after any reopening, flows aren’t likely to snap back quickly. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo cited recent tanker attacks and efforts to restrict fuel exports as additional reasons for the uptick. Reuters
U.S. stockpile numbers painted a mixed picture ahead of the jump in prices. According to the Energy Information Administration, commercial crude oil inventories added 3.5 million barrels last week. In contrast, total motor gasoline supplies dropped by 1.7 million barrels. Refineries operated at 89.2% of their available capacity, while gasoline output averaged 9.3 million barrels per day. The EIA also reported gasoline inventories sitting 4% above the five-year average for this point in the year.
Refiners moved in different directions. Valero Energy added 0.8%, Phillips 66 was up 1.4%, but Marathon Petroleum slipped 1.1%. Higher gasoline and diesel prices tend to fatten margins for refiners, yet traders remain wary of demand faltering if prices at the pump jump too quickly.
Traders aren’t just watching gasoline anymore. According to Reuters, U.S. retail diesel prices reached $4.04 per gallon on Wednesday. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan said that average could jump to anywhere between $4.25 and $4.45 in the next few days, depending on how things play out. Diesel’s supply squeeze is making it more volatile than other fuels, StoneX’s Alex Hodes noted. Economist Philip Verleger pointed out that rising diesel brings risks for both transport and food prices.
Still, gasoline’s gains could unravel fast if shipping lanes clear or crude comes back online sooner than traders think. Demand might also slip if prices bite harder. On top of that, U.S. refinery activity matters—more plants running means inventories can recover, though maintenance or unplanned outages would tighten supply.
Focus has shifted to Gulf tanker movements and possible adjustments in export flows, with eyes on the upcoming U.S. weekly petroleum status report slated for March 11.
