NEW YORK, June 13, 2026, 12:03 ET
- PayPal closed Friday at $41.53, up 0.7%, as U.S. indexes also advanced.
- A low price-to-earnings multiple and heavy buybacks support the bull case, but margin pressure and weak near-term profit guidance keep risk elevated.
- The next major catalyst is PayPal’s second-quarter earnings call on July 28.
PayPal Holdings, Inc. shares edged higher on Friday, with PYPL closing at $41.53, up 0.7%, according to the company’s stock information page. The move came in a firmer market: the S&P 500 rose 0.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.3%, according to AP’s market recap. MarketWatch’s payments-sector roundup also showed PayPal rising alongside peers including Fidelity National Information Services and Fiserv.
The stock move matters because PayPal remains priced like a turnaround rather than a growth leader. PYPL recently traded near $41, not far above its 52-week low of $38.46 and far below its 52-week high of $79.50, while its price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E ratio — the share price divided by earnings per share — is about 7.8. A low P/E can signal value, but it can also mean investors doubt future earnings quality or growth durability.
The bull case starts with the company’s still-large payments base. In first-quarter 2026, PayPal reported net revenue up 7% to $8.4 billion, while total payment volume, or TPV — the value of payments processed across its platforms — rose 11% to $464.0 billion. Non-GAAP EPS, a profit measure that excludes certain items such as investment gains or restructuring costs, rose 1% to $1.34. President and CEO Enrique Lores said PayPal was taking “deliberate steps to sharpen our strategy,” framing the quarter as part of a broader execution reset. Q4 Capital
The bear case is that the same report showed why the stock has not earned a stronger re-rating. GAAP operating margin fell to 17.8% from 19.6%, GAAP EPS declined 6% to $1.21, and active accounts slipped sequentially by 0.2 million even though they were up 1% year over year. PayPal also guided for a high-single-digit decline, or about 9%, in second-quarter non-GAAP EPS versus the prior-year period, and reiterated full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance ranging from a low-single-digit decline to slightly positive growth.
Capital returns are a key reason some investors may still view the stock as attractive. PayPal repurchased about $1.5 billion of stock in the first quarter and about $6.0 billion over the trailing 12 months, which can lift earnings per share if the company buys back shares below intrinsic value. The board also declared a $0.14 quarterly dividend payable June 25 to holders of record as of June 4, adding a modest cash-return element to the investment case.
Wall Street’s aggregate view still looks cautious rather than outright bullish. Google Finance lists PayPal’s analyst outlook as Hold based on 24 analysts over the past three months, while Investing.com shows an overall Neutral rating and an average 12-month price target of $51.54. That suggests analysts see possible upside from the current price, but not enough confidence to treat the turnaround as de-risked.
The next major catalyst is PayPal’s second-quarter 2026 earnings call, scheduled for July 28 at 8:00 a.m. ET. Investors will likely focus on whether transaction margin dollars — a measure of the economic value generated by payment activity after transaction costs and credit losses — can keep growing, whether active accounts stabilize, and whether management maintains or changes full-year guidance. Based on the verified numbers today, PayPal looks statistically cheap but still risky: the stock appears attractive only for investors who believe management can restore margin stability and durable payment-volume growth.
