New York, July 5, 2026, 13:03 (EDT)
- Dow climbed around 2% last week. S&P 500 was up 1.8%. Nasdaq added 2.1% ahead of the Independence Day break on Friday.
- FactSet now sees S&P 500 Q2 profit growth at 23.3%, higher than the 18.8% from March 31. Energy shows the widest gap between estimates and prices.
- Fed minutes, ISM services numbers, plus first results from Delta Air Lines NYSE:DAL and PepsiCo NASDAQ:PEP headline this week’s calendar.
Stocks head into this week with tech still holding up the wider market, while energy leads in earnings revisions. Thursday was the last full trading day as NYSE markets were closed for Independence Day on Friday.
Latest index closes and weekly moves, according to Reuters:
| Index | Thursday close | Thursday move | Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) | 52,900.07 | up 1.14% | around 2% higher |
| S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) | 7,483.24 | unchanged | up 1.8% |
| Nasdaq Composite (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) | 25,832.67 | fell 0.80% | gained 2.1% |
FactSet Research Systems NYSE:FDS data shows the split. Since March 31, energy’s earnings estimates on a dollar basis climbed 49.8%, but the sector price dropped 14.5%. Information technology earnings estimates moved up 9.9%, and the sector price gained 29.2%.
| S&P 500 sector | Q2 dollar-level earnings estimate change since March 31 | Sector price change since March 31 | Estimate-price gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | up 49.8% | down 14.5% | plus 64.3 pts |
| Information technology | up 9.9% | up 29.2% | minus 19.3 pts |
| Health care | down 15.2% | up 8.9% | minus 24.1 pts |
This matters since a lot of the tech profit angle is priced in for investors. Energy, though, still trades cheaper on earnings—FactSet has the group at 12.4 times forward 12-month P/E. The S&P 500 is at 20.4, while the index’s 10-year average stands at 19.0.
Joe Mazzola, who heads trading and derivatives strategy at Charles Schwab NYSE:SCHW, said to Reuters he’s watching to see “whether or not that broadening continues” and if a longer tech pullback would lead to “the market pulling back overall.” Reuters
Delta and PepsiCo will post results next week, not the energy names, according to Reuters. FactSet counted only three S&P 500 companies set to report Q2 numbers. NIKE NYSE:NKE has already pushed up the index’s Q2 estimate after topping earnings, FactSet said.
Tech keeps leading the market. FactSet says semiconductors and related equipment are the biggest chunk of tech earnings growth right now. If you take that group out, the sector’s projected earnings growth drops to 25.7% instead of 63.3%.
Rates can hit both bulls and bears. June payrolls rose by 57,000 and unemployment came in at 4.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. After the data, CME Group NASDAQ:CME FedWatch put the implied chance of the Fed holding rates at its September 15-16 meeting at 46.8%, up from 35.8% the day before, Reuters said.
Minutes from the June Fed meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, are expected Wednesday. Matthew Miskin at Manulife John Hancock Investments said investors are looking for just how much more hawkish policymakers might get. James Ragan at D.A. Davidson said if the Fed sounds more restrictive, it could threaten the market and valuations.
Oil is getting a real-time look after the energy revision. OPEC+ said Sunday it would lift output targets by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August. Brent crude was near $72 on Friday, according to Reuters, off from highs above $120. UBS NYSE:UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said traders are watching “how many tankers” go through Hormuz and how demand and Chinese crude imports pick up. Reuters
The week-ahead calendar is thin, but focused.
| Week-ahead test | Main stock-market read-through |
|---|---|
| ISM services, Monday | Market focus on services prices and jobs coming off weak payroll numbers |
| Fed minutes, Wednesday | Traders watching for clues on hike risk if Warsh joins |
| Delta, PepsiCo results | Updates on travel demand and pricing in packaged food |
| OPEC+ follow-through | Street attention on energy EPS calls following August quota increase |
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