NEW YORK, July 7, 2026, 09:02 EDT
- Tesla’s latest premarket quote pointed to roughly $92.6 billion in market value added since the last close.
- RBC ran numbers on what an all-stock SpaceX offer for Tesla would look like at a 20%-30% premium to Tesla’s current price. At present levels, that would mean issuing between 11.1 billion and 12.0 billion new SpaceX shares.
- SpaceX and xAI have bought $940 million worth from Tesla through April, filings show. That’s around 1% of the value Tesla gained Tuesday.
Tesla Inc NASDAQ:TSLA traded up before the U.S. open Tuesday, with investors talking up the chance Elon Musk could merge the company with Space Exploration Technologies Corp NASDAQ:SPCX, also called SpaceX. A Futu market note on July 6 said Tesla’s rally stretched to 5% on bigger merger chatter. The latest quote had shares at $419.77, up 6.65%.
As of 09:02 EDT, U.S. stocks were still trading in premarket hours. Nasdaq notes its main trading opens at 9:30 a.m. Eastern, with premarket from 4 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. Eastern.
Investors aren’t worried about cash already going between Musk’s companies. The focus is on the exchange ratio, dilution, and if Tesla starts trading as a SpaceX AI proxy before any deal lands.
RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan lifted his Tesla target to $500 from $475 on Tuesday, citing reports of a possible SpaceX takeover. Narayan said his new target now bakes in a 25-30% premium for such a scenario. RBC suggested SpaceX could acquire Tesla in an all-stock deal, paying a 20%-30% premium.
With Tesla’s current market cap, SpaceX’s $160.42 price, and the published Class A and Class B share totals for SpaceX after the offering, the math on this deal comes out like this, before figuring in debt, tax, or any governance tweaks.
| Scenario | Tesla equity value used | New SpaceX shares needed | New shares as % of current SpaceX A+B shares | Pro forma equity value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No premium | $1.49 trillion | 9.26 billion | 70.8% | $3.58 trillion |
| 20% premium | $1.78 trillion | 11.11 billion | 85.0% | $3.88 trillion |
| 30% premium | $1.93 trillion | 12.04 billion | 92.0% | $4.03 trillion |
This is why the “$4 trillion” number in merger talk tracks close to where the numbers are now, but it needs either a Tesla premium or more SpaceX gains. That’s also why Tesla investors are likely to focus on the exchange ratio, not just the headline figure.
SpaceX reported smaller ties in its filing. The new prospectus shows $506 million in Tesla Megapack buys and $131 million in Cybertrucks for 2025. It also lists $34 million of Megapacks in the first quarter and another $269 million in April.
| Tesla-SpaceX cash link | Amount |
|---|---|
| Megapack orders for 2025 | $506 million |
| Cybertruck deliveries set for 2025 | $131 million |
| Megapack spend in Q1 2026 | $34 million |
| Megapack committed for April 2026 | $269 million |
| Total reported cash | $940 million |
| Latest Tesla quote shows implied value jump | $92.6 billion |
| Ratio of value gain to total disclosed buys | 98.5x |
AI is fueling the merger chatter. TradingView’s GuruFocus piece, which cited Bloomberg Intelligence modeling, said AI could be the biggest revenue source for SpaceX starting this year. Tesla is focusing on autonomous driving and Optimus robots. Musk has not said a Tesla-SpaceX merger is his plan.
The prospectus lists out the overlap and projections in straightforward terms. It shows Tesla’s January 2026 investment in xAI turned into an equity stake in SpaceX following SpaceX’s buyout of xAI. Terafab, the document notes, is aimed at supplying one chip for Tesla Optimus robots and vehicles, and a different one for SpaceX orbital compute. Terafab’s exact projects still depend on separate deals.
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell told CNBC there’s “no question” about synergies between Tesla and SpaceX, according to the Wall Street Journal after the SpaceX IPO. Shotwell said her focus is on operations—launches and Starlink broadband. The Wall Street Journal
Wall Street’s first round of broad coverage on SpaceX is giving the company public deal momentum. Reuters said Tuesday that SpaceX’s potential spot in the Nasdaq-100 index could bring in $4.3 billion from passive investors, citing J.P. Morgan’s numbers. Morgan Stanley called SpaceX “AI’s final frontier.” RBC analysts said, “The Starship is the flywheel” for the company’s push. Reuters
Governance questions could be as important as the price. RBC said Tesla holders would want a premium, since a tie-up would give Musk control of more than 50% of the new company, compared to about 20% now at Tesla. SpaceX’s prospectus shows Musk would have 82.4% of SpaceX voting power after the deal and could decide on matters needing shareholder signoff. The filing also notes SpaceX could issue “a significant amount of equity” in later deals. Investing.com Nigeria
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