VELDHOVEN, July 15, 2026, 10:23 (CEST)
- Full-year guidance is €43 billion to €45 billion. First-half sales came in at €18.1 billion, and the company forecast €11 billion to €12 billion for the third quarter. That puts the implied fourth-quarter revenue between €12.9 billion and €15.9 billion.
- Service and upgrade sales were up almost 32% in the second quarter from a year ago, growing faster than system sales. That helped push operating margin up to 37.1%.
ASML Holding NV AMS:ASML bumped up its 2026 sales outlook Wednesday, but focus from investors has moved to delivery, not just demand. By backing out the Dutch chip equipment maker’s new targets, fourth-quarter sales look set to hit €12.9 billion to €15.9 billion, putting them at least 33% over the company’s old quarterly high.
ASML shares rose 5.7% in early Amsterdam trade and are up about 69% so far this year as of Wednesday morning. For ASML to hit its full-year target, it needs second-half revenue of €24.9 billion to €26.9 billion, which is 38% to 49% above the first half. That stock jump means less margin if shipment timing slips.
ASML moved past the second quarter hurdle with revenue up 21% year-on-year to €9.33 billion, topping the €8.80 billion market forecast by about 6%. Net income landed at €2.92 billion, ahead of the expected €2.62 billion. CFO Roger Dassen said, “The Installed Base business came in at €2.8 billion. That is €300 million more than we expected.” Installed Base Management refers to service and upgrades for tools already running at customer fabs. Reuters
| Q2 metric, € billion unless stated | 2026 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total net sales | 9.33 | 7.69 | up 21.3% |
| Net system sales | 6.56 | 5.60 | up 17.3% |
| Service and field-option sales | 2.76 | 2.10 | higher by 31.8% |
| Operating margin | 37.1% | 34.6% | rise of 2.5 pts |
| Net income | 2.92 | 2.29 | jumped 27.4% |
Figures are based on ASML’s reported numbers.
Service and upgrades made up 29.6% of revenue for the quarter, up from 27.2% last year. Dassen said a lot of the upgrades are software-driven, which means customers can boost productivity fast without machines sitting idle. That lets ASML pull in more from a tight supply of tools ahead of new system deliveries, and helps margins.
ASML lifted guidance, setting a tougher bar than the earnings beat shows. The company now sees third-quarter sales coming in at €11 billion to €12 billion, topping its previous high of €9.72 billion from late 2025. Management said the fourth quarter should be even bigger, based on how the annual and quarterly ranges add up.
| Revenue bridge | € billion | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| First-half actual | 18.09 | Reported |
| Third-quarter guidance | 11.00–12.00 | Company forecast |
| Implied fourth quarter | 12.91–15.91 | 33%–64% over previous high |
| Implied fourth-quarter midpoint | 14.41 | Up 48% from the last record |
| Previous quarterly record | 9.72 | Fourth quarter of 2025 |
The Q4 range is based on implied math, not on direct guidance from the company.
Gross margin would have to hit roughly 56% in the second half to land at the midpoint of the yearly range, after coming in at 53.5% for the first six months. Management is betting on more upgrade revenue, higher output and a better mix of EUV and immersion systems to drive margins higher. The figures highlight that hitting earnings targets will rely as much on execution as on demand.
ASML is still seeing strong demand. CEO Christophe Fouquet said customers raised their capital spending and are looking to “accelerate all their plans.” ASML now projects revenue from advanced foundry logic up about 25% this year, memory up 75%, and its EUV business, which makes tools for leading-edge chips, up roughly 45%. Firms like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co TPE:2330 and Micron Technology Inc NASDAQ:MU have continued to ramp up AI-focused output. The Edge Malaysia
ASML left out a quarterly net-bookings figure from Wednesday’s report, shifting focus onto its order and capacity outlook. CEO Christophe Fouquet said the company is nearly at its target for 2027 EUV orders and expects to grow low-NA EUV capacity by around 30% that year. He also said ASML has already booked many EUV orders for 2028. Michael Roeg at Degroof Petercam called it “blowout results across the board” but wondered how ASML managed to add so much capacity. ASML
Still, the forecast could be pushed back even if AI demand stays strong. ASML says risks include supply-chain limits, when systems ship and show up as revenue, order delays and export curbs. China took 14% of second-quarter system sales, down from 19% in Q1, but management still thinks China will make up around 20% of full-year revenue. Sales could take another hit if the proposed U.S. rules go through.
Investors are watching to see if ASML can hit €11 billion to €12 billion in third-quarter sales, with around €2.9 billion coming from its installed base. Gross margins are expected in the 55% to 57% range. The company also needs to keep enough shipment capacity for a bigger fourth quarter. Demand is there. Turning that into revenue is the real challenge now.
