AMSTERDAM, July 13, 2026, 00:11 (CEST)
ASML Holding AMS:ASML heads into Wednesday’s results with a sharp setup: a 7% swing in the stock now means about €42 billion in market cap changes, which tops the midpoint of its 2026 sales outlook at €38 billion. Saxo investment and options strategist Koen Hoorelbeke said shares have jumped more than 7% on earnings day six times in the last eight quarters. ASML finished Friday at €1,569, down 4% over five days, but shares are still up 70.3% this year. The trailing P/E stands at 60.7.
ASML is set to report Q2 numbers at 07:00 CEST on July 15, then host a one-hour investor call at 15:00. With the current valuation, the focus is likely to be on any margin outlook and updates on customer capacity plans, not just on the headline sales result.
Friday’s 2.1% drop outpaced the European tech sector, which slipped 1.3%. For the week, the sector was down 1.8% as some investors dialed back bets on AI gainers and Middle East worries limited risk. “The large swings we’re seeing in technology stocks … suggest investors remain under stress amid elevated valuations,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank. Reuters
ASML fell behind U.S. chip-gear rivals, who offer other tools but rely on the same capital spending in semiconductors.
| Company | Five-day move | 2026 year to date |
|---|---|---|
| ASML Holding AMS:ASML | fell 4.00% | is up 70.28% so far in 2026 |
| Applied Materials NASDAQ:AMAT | added 1.64% in five days | gained 134.44% this year |
| Lam Research NASDAQ:LRCX | slipped 0.04% over five days | has climbed 104.66% since January |
That put ASML about 4 to 5.6 points behind the two U.S. companies last week, even though investors stayed bullish on suppliers tied to AI-driven factory demand.
Management is forecasting quarterly sales to come in between €8.4 billion and €9.0 billion, with a gross margin between 51% and 52%. Gross margin is the portion of sales left after production costs. The midpoint at €8.7 billion implies revenue up 13.1% from €7.692 billion a year ago, but just under the €8.767 billion seen in the first quarter. Shipment mix and any updates to the full-year guidance could end up mattering more than the headline sales growth.
ASML won’t report its old quarterly bookings figure—accepted equipment orders—from 2026. The company dropped the metric saying volatile demand and long order-to-revenue timelines made it less useful. ASML says its forecasts from customer capacity talks give a better read. This change takes away one of the stock’s regular earnings-day drivers and puts more focus on what management says.
ASML posted €32.667 billion in sales for 2025. Management’s guidance calls for €36 billion to €40 billion this year, up 10.2% to 22.4%, or 16.3% at the midpoint. The stock is up 70.3% year to date, more than four times the midpoint sales growth. That doesn’t mean shares are overvalued—investors are pricing in profits after 2026, too—but it leaves less room for doubt the next factory cycle will happen as planned.
The bear case is simple. If gross margin drops under 51%, guidance on the full-year range weakens, or customer demand softens, the stock’s valuation, now near 61 times earnings, could come down fast. Deutsche Bank Research (ETR:DBK) bumped its price target to €1,800 from €1,600 on Friday and held its “Buy” call. But analyst Robert Sanders pointed out negative risks still include demand, supply chains, financing, and geopolitics. finanzen.net
With no bookings update, Wednesday’s focus lands on three main things: gross margin, the mix of system and service revenue, and any update to the 2026 range. Given ASML’s recent history, the market’s first move could be bigger than the actual accounting news.
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