NEW YORK, July 20, 2026, 12:07 p.m. EDT — U.S. trading day begins
- Robinhood stock climbed 1.2% as Bernstein increased its price target to $160 from $130.
- Early figures for June indicate an average of 208 million event contracts traded per day, representing a 65% increase from May.
- SpaceX shares hovered around $123, roughly 9% under their IPO price of $135.
Shares of Robinhood Markets, Inc. NASDAQ:HOOD gained 1.2% to reach $101.19 in midday trading. Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating and increased its price target by $30.
The broker projects that prediction-market revenue will increase by 64% each year until 2028, reaching $1.7 billion and potentially overtaking crypto revenue this quarter.
Cryptocurrency continues to be a vulnerable area. Bernstein reduced its projected 2026 crypto revenue by 49%. The firm still expects overall revenue to reach $5.3 billion.
Robinhood’s internal activity data confirm the trend. Early June numbers indicate 5.2 billion event contracts up to June 25, averaging 208 million per day—a 65% rise from May.
| Average daily activity | Q1 2026 | May 2026 | June 1–25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Event contracts | 98 million | 126 million | 208 million |
| Robinhood-app crypto notional | $267 million | $190 million | Approximately $240 million |
June data are initial and have not been audited. Daily rates are calculated by dividing the totals reported by the company by the number of calendar days.
Robinhood’s app saw daily crypto trading volumes close to $240 million in June, marking a 10% drop compared to the first quarter average. At the same time, activity in event contracts more than doubled, which stands out as the main shift in business mix for investors.
Rothera, an exchange associated with Robinhood that began operations in late May, has handled more than 3.5 billion contracts. Around 93% of its trade activity came from World Cup markets. This heavy reliance on a single event complicates efforts to project June’s results over a full year.
The valuation story remains in need of a rerating. At Monday’s share price, using Bernstein’s $4.56 estimate with no discount applied, this represents a multiple of around 22 times 2028 earnings. Bernstein’s $160 price target assumes a 35 times multiple, suggesting potential upside of about 58%.
First-quarter earnings are established by the latest results. Revenue increased by 15% to $1.07 billion. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $534 million. Other transaction revenue surged 320%, reaching $147 million, primarily due to event contracts.
Chief Financial Officer Shiv Verma pointed to “record volumes for prediction markets, futures, and index options.” Robinhood Markets, Inc.
Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. NASDAQ:SPCX declined 0.8% to $123.00, trading roughly 9% under their $135 IPO price from June.
SpaceX has set July 23 as the date for Starship’s 13th test flight after a previous launch attempt on July 16 was aborted just before liftoff. The mission will send 20 demonstration Starlink satellites on a suborbital journey.
SpaceX plans to start launching Starlink satellites into orbit aboard Starship before the end of the year, its prospectus states. Regular flights would come after.
SpaceX requested U.S. authorization for 100,000 Gen3 satellites earlier this month. Each satellite in the proposal is expected to weigh between 2,000 and 2,500 kilograms. The larger dimensions would likely necessitate Starship for launches.
The financial models vary. Robinhood generates revenue from user activity, while SpaceX investors rely on hardware performance.
Risks persist. The majority of Rothera’s volume came from World Cup markets. Robinhood continues to route the bulk of its event contracts via Kalshi. SpaceX is still vulnerable to additional launch setbacks.
SpaceX’s next milestone is Starship’s test on Thursday. Robinhood is set to release its second-quarter earnings on July 29 at 5 p.m. EDT.
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