Garmin surges 17% after Q2 margin surge prompts valuation shift
29 July 2026
2 mins read

Garmin surges 17% after Q2 margin surge prompts valuation shift

NEW YORK, July 29, 2026, 14:05 EDT – Shares in Garmin soared 17%, as a sharp margin increase in the second quarter renewed focus on the company’s valuation.

  • At 13:48 EDT, Garmin was up 17.4% at $297.66 while U.S. markets continued to trade.
  • Pro forma EPS for the second quarter exceeded the FactSet consensus by 22%, while revenue surpassed estimates by around 5%.
  • The 2026 EPS projection increased by 7%, which is under half the rise in share price.

Garmin Ltd. jumped 17.4% on Wednesday following record-setting quarterly operating income and an improved forecast. Shares touched $302.59 during intraday trading. The company’s market capitalization was about $57.6 billion. Major U.S. indexes declined.

Revenue increased by 11% to $2.02 billion. Pro forma earnings were up 29% to $2.81 per share. FactSet had projected $1.93 billion in revenue and earnings of $2.30 per share.

Stock chart for NYSE:GRMN

The investor indication surpassed the projected increase. Garmin raised its 2026 EPS outlook to $10, up from $9.35. The company also boosted revenue guidance to $8.05 billion from $7.90 billion.

Garmin was valued at 29.8 times the updated EPS target based on Wednesday’s price. At Tuesday’s close, the previous target reflected a multiple of 27.1. The forward multiple grew by roughly 9.7% according to calculations.

The margin figures shed light on the rerating. Operating margin rose to 30.4%, an increase of 440 basis points. Gross margin was lifted by 100 basis points thanks to a $21 million tariff refund.

By calculation, operating margin, excluding the refund, stood at approximately 29.4%. The margin still increased by an estimated 340 basis points. The refund accounted for just 15% of the growth in operating income.

The comparison uses company data, FactSet consensus estimates and the share price as of Wednesday.

MeasureReported or newComparatorDifference
Q2 revenue$2.022 billion$1.93 billion consensus+4.8%
Q2 pro forma EPS$2.81$2.30 consensus+22.2%
Q2 operating margin30.4%26.0% year earlier+440 bps
2026 revenue guidance$8.05 billion$7.90 billion prior+1.9%
2026 EPS guidance$10.00$9.35 prior+7.0%
Share price$297.66$253.65 prior close+17.4%

Growth was driven by a few segments. Fitness and marine accounted for 93% of Garmin’s sales growth in the quarter. Segment figures show these two segments delivered 81% of the added operating income.

Fitness revenue climbed by 25% to $757 million. Operating income for the segment grew 40% to $277 million. Marine sales were up 14%, with operating income for marine rising 59%.

Outdoor revenue declined by 2%, though profits grew 4%. Sales to auto OEMs increased 1%. This segment posted $3 million in earnings, compared to a loss in the same period a year ago.

Chief Executive Cliff Pemble described first-half performance as “very strong.” He stated this result gave Garmin the confidence to increase its full-year guidance.

Cash flow provided a boost. Garmin reported free cash flow of $276 million for the quarter. The company closed June holding approximately $4.4 billion in cash and marketable securities.

Risks persist. Garmin noted that memory-chip limitations could increase expenses and impact gross margin going forward. Management is also projecting auto OEM revenue to fall in the second half, with the segment likely moving back to an operating loss.

Garmin’s outlook suggests a 26.3% operating margin for the second half, based on early estimates. This is down from 30.4% recorded in the second quarter. The rise in the stock’s multiple indicates investors expect some stability in margins.

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Further analysis

What caused the sudden surge in Garmin shares today?

Garmin shares hovered around $297.15, rising 17.2% from the previous session. The stock hit $302.59, boosting its market capitalization toward $57.5 billion. Pro forma EPS for the second quarter was $2.81, beating the consensus forecast of $2.30. Revenue stood at $2.02 billion, exceeding expectations by roughly $96 million. The raised full-year outlook and stronger margins further drove the reaction. Barron’s

How robust was the core performance during the second quarter?

Revenue climbed 11% from a year earlier, with pro forma EPS up 29%. Gross margin widened by 360 basis points to 62.4%. Operating income advanced 30%, resulting in a 30.4% operating margin. Free cash flow for the quarter totaled $276 million. A tariff refund of $21 million contributed to profitability, so not all gains may be recurring.

Is there still potential for Garmin to surpass its upgraded 2026 outlook?

Garmin is projecting revenue of $8.05 billion and pro forma EPS of $10.00, indicating approximately 11% growth in revenue and 17% growth in EPS. Following first-half performance, the company must deliver $4.27 billion in revenue and about $5.11 pro forma EPS in the second half. These numbers set targets of 9.7% revenue growth and 6.9% EPS growth. The targets are not demanding. The buffer could be offset by fluctuations in component costs and timing of product launches.

What divisions are driving Garmin’s expansion?

Fitness segment reported $757 million in revenue, a 25% increase, with an operating margin of 37%. The segment accounted for about 37% of overall sales and contributed approximately 45% of operating income. Revenue from the Marine unit was up 14%, and Aviation showed an 8% gain. Outdoor revenue declined by 2%, highlighting softer demand for adventure watches and consumer-auto products. Auto OEM recorded a 1% rise in sales and an operating margin of 2%. Fitness remains the primary growth driver.

Is Garmin capable of maintaining these exceptionally high margins?

Gross margin for the second quarter stood at 62.4%, and operating margin was 30.4%. The company benefited from a $21 million tariff refund during the quarter. According to management, the margin improvement was mainly due to a positive product mix. Full-year projections suggest that gross margin will be approximately 58.5% in the second half. Forecasts also point to an operating margin of about 26.4%. Management noted that rising memory costs continue to be a challenge, and no additional refunds are anticipated.

Is it possible for CIRQA and the TrainingPeaks agreement to significantly affect earnings?

Management reported that demand for CIRQA surpassed projections, resulting in backorders. An analyst mentioned delivery delays of about five to eight weeks. Core health functions are available without a Connect Plus subscription. Garmin completed acquisitions of TrainingPeaks and TrainHeroic, bringing on 120 additional staff. Financial terms and acquired revenues were not revealed. The move shifts Garmin’s focus from hardware to coaching platforms. The near-term impact on earnings is unclear. Yahoo Finance

What is the extent of Garmin’s financial flexibility?

Cash and marketable securities stood at $4.37 billion as of June. The balance sheet showed no short- or long-term debt. Free cash flow for the first half was $745 million, and management projects around $1.4 billion for the year. The current annual dividend is $4.20, offering a yield of approximately 1.4% at the present share price. Garmin has $448 million left on its buyback authorization.

What are the main risks for the second half?

Rising memory costs are likely to have a more significant impact on margins in the second half. Inventory rose to $1.97 billion, an increase of around 11% compared to year-end. Outdoor sales fell 2% during the quarter. Auto OEM is projected to decrease and move back into losses. Capital expenditures are set to near $550 million as construction activities in Thailand reach their peak. Today’s steep rally also heightens valuation risk.

What is an appropriate 12-month projection for Garmin shares?

Garmin shares trade at $297.15, equating to about 29.7 times their projected 2026 EPS. My central scenario ranges between $300 and $325, with a midpoint around $312, based on 2027 EPS estimates of approximately $10.75 to $11.00 and a price multiple of 28 to 30. In a bullish scenario, the stock could approach $350 if margins and growth outperform expectations. The downside case falls between $240 and $260 should the multiple contract to 24 to 26. Analyst consensus estimates mostly before today’s results are in the $262 to $269 range. This outlook depends on valuation changes and is not a specific projection.

Michał Rogucki is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and macroeconomic developments. A graduate of Humboldt University of Berlin, he previously worked in investment research and market analysis before transitioning to financial journalism. He covers the trends and events that matter most to investors worldwide.

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