NEW YORK, July 30, 2026, 12:15 p.m. EDT — Nebius NASDAQ:NBIS climbed 28% as investors reacted to the company’s stronger-than-expected fourth quarter revenue numbers.
- Shares climbed 28.4% to $190.34 in early U.S. trading.
- Early consensus forecasts indicate that $1.52 billion, or 44%, of projected 2026 revenue is expected in the fourth quarter.
- Freedom Capital’s target for July 20 suggests an upside of approximately 5.1%.
Nebius saw its simple equity value rise by roughly $10.7 billion by midday, based on 253.9 million shares outstanding as of March 31. Following the gains, the stock was just 5.1% under Freedom Capital’s $200 price target.
The development is significant as most revenue is expected later in the year. Initial projections call for sales of $1.52 billion in the fourth quarter, a figure 3.8 times higher than first-quarter revenue.
The broader AI-infrastructure sector also climbed strongly.
| Company | Midday price | Day change | Intraday range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nebius NASDAQ:NBIS | $190.34 | up 28.4% | $149.00 to $195.72 |
| CoreWeave NASDAQ:CRWV | $74.80 | up 23.0% | $61.02 to $75.68 |
| IREN NASDAQ:IREN | $37.31 | up 27.3% | $29.71 to $37.64 |
| Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT | $449.84 | up 15.2% | $417.00 to $451.94 |
As of approximately 12:15 p.m. EDT, prices were as follows.
The coordinated actions indicate a recovery in the sector and in portfolio positioning, but do not confirm a revaluation of Nebius on its own. The Financial Times said Citadel acquired a considerable share of Situational Awareness’s public equity holdings following sharp losses in AI. Situational Awareness reported holding a 5.6% position in Nebius in May.
Microsoft provided new proof of strong demand. Revenue from Azure and other cloud services rose 43%. Sales for Microsoft Cloud climbed 27% to $59.3 billion. Chief Executive Satya Nadella stated, “Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time.” SEC
The valuation divide is highlighted in the three linked analyses. Barchart focused on the impact of analyst upgrades and rising quarterly projections. Seeking Alpha pointed to the 45% cloud margin, suggesting it signals economics similar to those of software companies. Motley Fool contended that a 100-fold return remains unlikely, as assumptions about growth may shift.
The analyst actions were not released on Thursday. Freedom’s upgrade took place on July 20, while Baird began coverage two days afterward.
| Date | Firm and analyst | Rating | Target | Upside from $190.34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 20 | Freedom Capital, Paul Meeks | Buy | $200 | 5.1% |
| July 22 | Baird, Rob Oliver | Outperform | $250 | 31.3% |
| July 20 | Northland, Nehal Chokshi | Outperform | $410 | 115.4% |
Baird analyst Rob Oliver highlighted a “strong full-stack offering well positioned for inference.” He additionally noted customer diversification and swift growth in the sector. Barchart.com
The thesis continues to rely on an atypically sharp increase from quarter to quarter.
| Quarter | Revenue | Status | Sequential growth | Share of implied 2026 total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $399 million | Actual | +75% | 11.7% |
| Q2 | $586 million | Preliminary estimate | +47% | 17.1% |
| Q3 | $916 million | Preliminary estimate | +56% | 26.8% |
| Q4 | $1.52 billion | Preliminary estimate | +66% | 44.4% |
Analyst estimates for Q2 to Q4 are provisional and do not represent company-issued guidance.
The projections amount to $3.421 billion, just 0.6% higher than the management’s upper guidance of $3.4 billion. The fourth quarter accounts for 44.4% of this sum. This leaves minimal flexibility for a quarter with slower deployment.
The operational figures offer some backing for the software narrative. In the first quarter, Nebius’s AI-cloud division recorded $174 million in adjusted EBITDA, with a 45% margin. However, spending on equipment and intangibles amounted to $2.47 billion, representing 6.2 times the group’s revenue. The group nonetheless reported a GAAP operating loss of $128 million.
With a March share price of $190.34, the implied basic equity value totals around $48.3 billion. This represents 14.2 to 16.1 times the management-projected revenue for 2026. The calculation does not include full dilution. In the first quarter, the number of diluted weighted shares exceeded the basic weighted shares by 19.6%.
Demand is tangible. Earlier this month, Reflection AI entered into a Nebius computing deal valued at over $1 billion. Chief Executive Arkady Volozh stated, “Compute and cloud needs are vastly exceeding capacity.” Reuters
Nebius is scheduled to announce second-quarter results ahead of the market opening on August 12. Key areas of focus include revenue close to the preliminary estimate of $586 million, performance of cloud margins, capital expenditures, and liquidity sources. Even if Nebius surpasses expectations, unrestrained cash requirements could keep valuation discussions unresolved.
Risks: Delays in scaling, limits on power, GPU shortages, softer utilization, and financing expenses have the potential to disrupt the growth trajectory. As of March 31, Nebius reported non-current debt totaling $8.43 billion. The company’s filing also highlighted risks related to funding, supply chain, and customer demand.
Following Thursday’s surge, Nebius is no longer behaving like a basic recovery. The market is now trading it with Q4 performance seemingly taken for granted.
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