NEW YORK, August 1, 2026, 13:05 EDT
- This week, the Nasdaq climbed 1.6%, while the Russell 2000 edged up by under 0.1%.
- Fed-funds futures show a 64% probability of a rate hike in September. A Reuters early poll forecasts 83,000 additional jobs in July.
- Over a quarter of S&P 500 firms are set to report results next week, featuring leading names from the software, semiconductor, industrial, and pharmaceutical sectors.
U.S. cash markets remained shut on Saturday, following a turbulent week that saw gains. Trading will resume in the next standard session on Monday at 9:30 a.m. EDT.
Behind the overall gains, a clear divergence emerged. The Nasdaq climbed 1.6%, but the Russell 2000 was little changed. The 1.55 percentage point difference suggests persistent dependence on major technology firms.
Friday’s closing figures and returns for the period highlight the gap:
| Benchmark | Friday close | Friday | Week | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,489.72 | up 0.7% | gained 1.0% | up 9.4% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,485.03 | added 0.5% | rose 1.0% | up 9.2% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,373.85 | climbed 1.0% | added 1.6% | higher by 9.2% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,931.34 | fell 0.5% | edged up less than 0.1% | advanced 18.1% |
The recovery failed to reverse the technology losses seen in July. Over the month, the Nasdaq dropped 3.2%. The S&P 500 remained nearly unchanged, and the Dow gained 0.3%.
The concentration became more evident on Friday. The S&P 500 climbed 0.7%, but decliners still outpaced advancers by a ratio of 1.3 to one. On the Nasdaq, there were 131 stocks hitting new lows versus just 52 reaching new highs.
Three trading sessions accounted for the bulk of the week’s activity:
| Session | S&P 500 | Nasdaq | Dow | Main driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday | -1.52% | -1.74% | -2.19% | Fed maintains rates, three policymakers call for hike, renewed AI investment concerns |
| Thursday | +1.66% | +2.78% | +1.19% | Microsoft’s results and improved cloud outlook |
| Friday | +0.70% | +1.00% | +0.53% | Amazon rally balanced Apple’s losses |
Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT climbed 15.5% on Thursday, boosting its market value by close to $450 billion. Amazon.com NASDAQ:AMZN surged over 15% on Friday. Apple NASDAQ:AAPL declined 7.4%, wiping out about $359 billion. The movement in Microsoft and Apple together resulted in a combined two-stock swing of nearly $809 billion.
| Company | Post-results move | Reported signal | Market effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT | Advanced 15.5% Thursday | Azure yearly revenue topped $100 billion; growth for the next quarter projected close to 45%, excluding currency impact | Roughly $450 billion added |
| Amazon.com NASDAQ:AMZN | Jumped over 15% Friday | Marked fastest quarterly revenue increase in more than four years | Bolstered the Nasdaq, offsetting Apple’s drop |
| Apple NASDAQ:AAPL | Dropped 7.4% Friday | Faced supply issues and lowered growth forecasts | Approximately $359 billion wiped out |
Amazon’s results addressed a key aspect of the AI discussion. “Andy Jassy just put those fears to bed,” said Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management, in reference to worries over uncontrolled infrastructure outlays. Reuters
Rates continued to provide balance. The Federal Reserve, by a 9-3 vote, kept its target range steady at 3.50% to 3.75%. Core PCE inflation marked 3.3% for June, and the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.2444% on Thursday, the highest since mid-2007.
Labor figures in the upcoming week will be set against rate risk:
| Date | U.S. release | Time, ET | Market question |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, August 3 | July ISM manufacturing | 10:00 a.m. | Factory output: is it growing, and what is happening to input prices? |
| Tuesday, August 4 | June international trade | 8:30 a.m. | Is trade still hampering economic growth? |
| Tuesday, August 4 | June JOLTS openings | 10:00 a.m. | Are employers seeking fewer workers? |
| Wednesday, August 5 | July ISM services | 10:00 a.m. | Are service sector prices and jobs picking up? |
| Thursday, August 6 | Second-quarter productivity and costs, preliminary | 8:30 a.m. | Will productivity gains help check wage-related inflation? |
| Friday, August 7 | July employment report | 8:30 a.m. | Reuters initial poll: 83,000 new jobs; unemployment rate at 4.3% |
A robust payroll figure may cement expectations for a September rate increase, while a significant shortfall could ease such bets but stoke worries about economic growth. With limited Fed communication, market reactions on Friday could become sharper.
Results will serve as the second challenge. Over a quarter of S&P 500 companies are set to announce their earnings. Market participants will assess growth in demand alongside expenditures, margin performance and cash flow.
| Date | Company | Timing | Main investor focus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, August 3 | Palantir Technologies NASDAQ:PLTR | After markets close | Commercial segment growth and AI trends |
| Tuesday, August 4 | Caterpillar NYSE:CAT | Pre-market; conference call at 8:30 a.m. | Industrial markets and annual guidance |
| Tuesday, August 4 | Merck NYSE:MRK | Conference call at 9:00 a.m. | Keytruda results and R&D investment |
| Tuesday, August 4 | Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD | Post market close | Data center products, profit margins and AI outlook |
| Tuesday, August 4 | SpaceX NASDAQ:SPCX | Post-close; webcast at 4:30 p.m. | Debut quarterly update and Starlink results |
| Wednesday, August 5 | Eli Lilly NYSE:LLY | Conference call at 10:00 a.m. | Obesity treatment demand and manufacturing scale |
S&P 500 earnings, on an adjusted basis, are currently 29.3% higher compared to a year ago, providing a cushion if forecasts remain steady. “The earnings picture overall should provide stability,” said Yung-Yu Ma of PNC Financial Services Group NYSE:PNC. Reuters
Confirmation should next be seen in market breadth. Gains among small caps and favorable advance-decline figures would reinforce the rally. If the index moves higher but with limited participation, returns will remain concentrated in several large-cap stocks.
Risks: Yields could rise if payrolls exceed expectations, oil prices climb, or corporate guidance disappoints. Limited market breadth would amplify any downturn among major technology shares. Conversely, a significant shortfall in jobs could weigh on banks, industrials, and smaller firms.
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