NEW YORK, August 6, 2026, 14:05 EDT — U.S. markets open
- Shares were down 6.2% at $17.79 ahead of results set for release after markets close.
- Consensus revenue is just $2 million higher than the management-set floor of $750 million.
- AppLovin dropped 18.0%, whereas Magnite rose 15.9% following opposing updates.
The Trade Desk, Inc. NASDAQ:TTD dropped 6.2% to $17.79 on Thursday afternoon. The stock was trading only 6.5% higher than its 52-week low and is currently down around 53% year-to-date.
The outcome will be released following the market close. This quarter, projected revenue comes close to the lower guidance level set by the company. Analysts expect around $752 million, with management having guided to a minimum of $750 million.
The $2 million difference amounts to just 0.3%. The consensus points to annual growth of 8.4%. Revenue increased by 12% in the first quarter and by 19% in the previous year.
| Q2 revenue benchmark | Revenue | Implied growth | Gap above company floor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 actual | $694.0 mln | — | — |
| Q2 2026 company outlook | At least $750 mln | At least 8.1% | — |
| Street consensus | $752 mln | 8.4% | $2 mln, or 0.3% |
| Wedbush forecast | $757 mln | 9.1% | $7 mln, or 0.9% |
Initial growth rate estimates are based on the reported Q2 2025 basis.
Margins present the next challenge. The $260 million EBITDA forecast suggests a 34.7% margin at the revenue minimum. This would mark an improvement from Q1, though still not reaching the level seen in the prior year’s second quarter.
| Period | Revenue | Adjusted EBITDA | Adjusted EBITDA margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 actual | $694.0 mln | $270.8 mln | 39.0% |
| Q1 2026 actual | $688.9 mln | $206.0 mln | 29.9% |
| Q2 2026 outlook | No less than $750 mln | Approximately $260 mln | Approximately 34.7%* |
The Q2 2026 margin was calculated on a preliminary basis using management’s revenue floor.
The peer tape heightened competition. AppLovin Corp. NASDAQ:APP fell 18.0% after revenue missed forecasts and third-quarter guidance came in below expectations. Magnite, Inc. (NASDAQ:MGNI) rose 15.9% following robust connected-TV performance and an upgrade to its full-year outlook.
Magnite CEO Michael Barrett said the firm “significantly beat consensus expectations on both the top and bottom line.” The CTV segment grew 36%. Magnite, Inc.
| Ad-tech company | Price | Day move | Market value | Intraday range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trade Desk NASDAQ:TTD | $17.79 | -6.2% | $8.48 bln | $17.50–$19.00 |
| AppLovin NASDAQ:APP | $342.64 | -18.0% | $116.01 bln | $332.40–$359.95 |
| Magnite (NASDAQ:MGNI) | $23.96 | +15.9% | $3.53 bln | $22.16–$25.37 |
| PubMatic, Inc. NASDAQ:PUBM | $13.40 | -0.8% | $0.63 bln | $13.28–$13.81 |
| Criteo S.A. (NASDAQ:CRTO) | $17.34 | +1.7% | $0.88 bln | $16.85–$17.54 |
Prices recorded at approximately 13:50 EDT.
The split indicates investors are not turning away from ad tech entirely. Markets favoured streaming-driven performance while reacting negatively to minor shortfalls on the demand side. Trade Desk stands at the centre of this divide.
Expectations are lower now. FactSet’s Q2 profit forecast declined to $0.18 from $0.22 over the past three months. The estimate for the full year 2026 slid to $1.00 from $1.10.
Analysts remain divided on the stock’s valuation, with target prices in the list below spanning from $11.60 to $33.
| Analyst | Firm | Latest action | Rating | Target | Move from $17.79 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Mahaney | Evercore ISI | Reaffirmed Aug. 3 | Buy | $27.00 | +51.8% |
| Scott Devitt | Wedbush | Kept Aug. 3 | Hold | $21.00 | +18.0% |
| Matthew Swanson | RBC Capital | Kept July 29 | Buy | $33.00 | +85.5% |
| Laura Martin | Needham | Kept July 20 | Buy | $25.00 | +40.5% |
| Stephen Ju | UBS | Reaffirmed July 13 | Buy | $28.00 | +57.4% |
| Richard Kramer | Arete Research | Lowered June 30 | Sell | $11.60 | -34.8% |
The most recent recommendations and targets are shown as listed by Google Finance.
According to Google Finance, there are nine Buy ratings, 13 Hold ratings, and three Sell ratings. The mean price target stands at $23.97, which is 34.8% higher than Thursday’s closing price. Although the upside is significant, the majority Hold rating signals concerns about when the company can deliver.
Wedbush analyst Scott Devitt projects Q2 revenue will total $757 million. He maintained a Hold rating and a $21 price target. The firm cites challenges from fee transparency and competition with closed-loop advertising platforms.
In May, CEO Jeff Green stated that Trade Desk was “confident in our ability to lead and innovate.” Customer retention was sustained above 95%. During the first quarter, the company allocated $164 million for share repurchases. The Trade Desk
Risks are still tilted toward the guidance. Disappointing Q3 forecasts, reduced implied margins or slower CTV growth may deepen declines. Conversely, strong guidance might prompt a swift rebound.
The company is set to release results following the market close. The webcast begins at 5:00 p.m. EDT. A standard Q2 outperformance might fall short.
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