Singapore, August 11, 2026, 09:06 SGT
- Gross domestic product increased by 5.9% year-on-year in the second quarter, exceeding the earlier advance estimate of 5.7% growth.
- The government increased its projected growth for 2026 to a range of 4.5%–5.5%, up from the previous forecast of 2.0%–4.0%.
- The forecast for non-oil exports rose to 14%–16%, up from a previous estimate of 3%–5%.
- Singapore stocks were active following the market opening at 09:00 SGT.
Singapore has increased its 2026 growth outlook, following final data that revealed a 5.9% GDP rise in the second quarter. The revised forecast is now set between 4.5% and 5.5%, elevating the official midpoint by two percentage points.
Trade provided a stronger signal. Enterprise Singapore increased its non-oil domestic export projection to 14%–16%. The midpoint of this forecast is 11 percentage points higher than the earlier estimate.
This shift makes Singapore a real-time indicator of worldwide AI investment. The city-state is heavily involved in semiconductor equipment, electronics, and global trade. Robust demand is boosting production, even with oil supply issues and recent U.S. tariffs.
| Growth measure | Final or current reading | Previous reading | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 GDP, year on year | 5.9% | 5.7% advance estimate | +0.2 percentage point |
| Q2 GDP, quarter on quarter | 1.4% | 1.1% advance estimate | +0.3 percentage point |
| First-half GDP, year on year | 6.1% | Not previously final | — |
| 2026 forecast range | 4.5%–5.5% | 2.0%–4.0% | Midpoint rises by 2.0 points |
The latest release boosted projections for both year-over-year and quarter-by-quarter growth. Growth in the first half rose to 6.1%. According to the government, AI investments surpassed initial expectations, and the impact of the Middle East conflict was milder than anticipated.
The official midpoint now exceeds several private forecasts released following the advance GDP figures. This is uncommon and increases emphasis on ongoing AI orders in the latter half.
| Forecaster | 2026 GDP view | Deviation from new official midpoint |
|---|---|---|
| Singapore Trade Ministry | 4.5%–5.5%; midpoint 5.0% | Benchmark |
| UOB | 4.8% | 0.2 point under |
| S&P Global Market Intelligence | 4.8% | 0.2 point under |
| Nomura | 4.6% | 0.4 point under |
UOB increased its projection to 4.8% following the advance data. S&P Global Market Intelligence matched that at 4.8%, with Nomura maintaining a 4.6% estimate. The revised official range now includes all three, though its midpoint stands higher.
| Non-oil export outlook | Forecast range | Midpoint | Midpoint change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earlier 2026 projection | 3%–5% | 4% | — |
| August 11 projection | 14%–16% | 15% | up 11 percentage points |
Enterprise Singapore attributed the export improvement to steady global demand and investment in AI infrastructure. It also noted that conflict involving Iran and another set of U.S. tariffs remain potential risks.
The surge is not without expense. In July, Singapore’s central bank surprised markets by tightening policy for a second consecutive meeting. The bank modestly raised the appreciation rate of its exchange-rate policy band.
| Policy and risk marker | Verified figure | Investor reading |
|---|---|---|
| June inflation | 1.6% | Remains moderate, though forecast to increase |
| 2026 core and headline inflation forecasts | 1.5%–2.5% | Energy risks sustain a restrictive policy stance |
| July energy support | S$900 million | Cushions higher costs for households and businesses |
| April support | Nearly S$1 billion | Brings total announced support close to S$1.9 billion |
| Exports affected by new U.S. tariffs | S$9.5 billion, about one-third of U.S.-bound exports | Limits trade’s potential to lift overall performance |
| New U.S. tariff rate | 12.5% | Pressures profit margins beyond the AI sector |
The Monetary Authority of Singapore forecasts inflation will increase and remain high through the first half of 2027. Before its July policy decision, 12 out of 16 analysts surveyed anticipated no adjustment. Since April, the government has outlined roughly S$1.9 billion in energy relief, as the latest U.S. tariff now impacts S$9.5 billion of Singaporean exports.
At the same time, Singapore reported that a 12.5% U.S. tariff would impact S$9.5 billion worth of exports, which represents about a third of its total exports to the United States. The composition is significant: while AI-related demand remains robust, other sectors of the export market are under greater pricing pressure.
Officials are monitoring the strength of the AI cycle as well as its scale. Electronics powered by AI accounted for over 70% of Asia’s export growth this year, an increase from 46% in 2024.
Monetary Authority of Singapore Managing Director Chia Der Jiun stated in July that “markets will increasingly be looking to commercial revenue growth to justify the financing risks.” He cautioned that a pullback could affect investment, semiconductor demand, and financial markets. Chia’s remarks
Risks: Any decrease in hyperscaler spending would impact Singapore more quickly than economies with less reliance on technology. Fresh oil supply disruptions could push up inflation and raise import expenses. U.S. tariffs could additionally highlight softer demand outside the electronics sector.
The key question now is whether monthly exports support the revised 14%–16% outlook. If exports maintain this level and inflation remains under control, July’s rate hike will appear to be a proactive move. However, should demand for AI weaken, the 11-point downgrade in exports will likely be the first figure investors scrutinise.
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