NEW YORK, August 11, 2026, 10:10 EDT
- The S&P 500 edged up 0.1% at the open, holding close to its all-time high.
- Brent crude climbed above $90 for a short time before sliding back to around $87.
- The Dow rose by 65 points, while the Nasdaq remained mostly flat.
- The July CPI, set for release on Wednesday, is projected to decline to 3.4%.
The S&P 500 inched past Friday’s record close in early Tuesday trading. Oil prices retreated from an overnight jump after reports indicated progress on a U.S.-Iran deal. The index gained 0.1%, the Dow climbed 65 points, and the Nasdaq Composite was largely flat.
The minor shift in equities concealed a significantly bigger movement in the inflation gauge. Brent momentarily surpassed $90 per barrel before dropping to around $87, as investors reacted to news of diplomatic advances.
The gap is significant. Equities maintained their position despite a sharp turn in the market’s most volatile macro factor. This indicates that investors are still prepared to hold equities trading at record highs, as long as both oil prices and bond yields are not climbing simultaneously.
| Benchmark | Opening print | Early-trading read |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,767.51, rises 0.19% | Gains 0.1% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 53,961.60, slips 0.03% | Advances 65 points |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,672.18, climbs 0.25% | Flat |
Reuters tracked the market’s initial bell levels. AP’s subsequent update during early trading reflected the Dow moving into positive territory, while the Nasdaq lost its initial advance. This progression indicates rotation within the market rather than an overall breakout.
Oil continues to be the quickest link between diplomatic developments and equity prices. Brent crude has risen roughly 5% in the last two sessions and is up nearly 25% since its low in early July, according to Reuters prior to the reversal. Increased fuel prices have the potential to drive inflation higher and postpone more accommodative monetary policy.
Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, described the situation as “a bit of a Mexican standoff.” He expects oil prices to remain between $75 and $95. Reuters
| Cross-asset signal | Latest verified reading | Investor implication |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | Topped $90 during trading, settling near $87 | Inflationary pressures moderated after drop |
| U.S. 2-year Treasury | 4.23%, lower by 1 basis point | Expectations for short-term rates shifted lower |
| U.S. 10-year Treasury | 4.70%, mostly steady | Elevated long-term discount rates persist |
| U.S. 30-year Treasury | Close to 5.28% | Long-term equity values continue to face risks |
Reuters provided Treasury levels ahead of the cash session’s start. Later, AP noted that yields fell. Money markets reflected nearly 50-50 chances for a Fed rate hike in September, positioning Wednesday’s inflation figures as the next key indicator.
Jonas Goltermann, chief markets economist at Capital Economics, stated that risks were “skewed towards a hot print.” He noted in the same Reuters report that such an outcome could bring back worries about rate hikes and stagflation.
Equity positioning continues to show a bullish trend. On Monday, J.P. Morgan lifted its 2026 S&P 500 target to 8,000, up from 7,800. The revised target reflects only a 3.1% potential gain from the index level the bank used in its calculation.
| J.P. Morgan forecast | New estimate | Previous estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Year-end S&P 500 target for 2026 | 8,000 | 7,800 |
| S&P 500 earnings per share for 2026 | $365 | $350 |
| S&P 500 earnings per share for 2027 | $420 | $390 |
| Forward price-to-earnings target | Approximately 20 times | Unchanged |
Seven or more brokerages now forecast 8,000 by the end of the year, according to Reuters. J.P. Morgan pointed to improved earnings alongside higher returns from AI investments. Out of 436 S&P 500 companies having reported by Friday morning, 85.1% exceeded forecasts. The average beat rate over the long term stood at 68%.
Tuesday’s market movers reflected the impact of earnings. Cardinal Health NYSE:CAH rose 8.1% after posting quarterly results. Aramark NYSE:ARMK advanced 8.3% following its earnings release. Intel NASDAQ:INTC edged down 0.5% after announcing a $20 billion stock offering.
| Company | Early move | Immediate catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| Cardinal Health NYSE:CAH | up 8.1% | Quarterly results |
| Aramark NYSE:ARMK | up 8.3% | Quarterly results |
| Intel NASDAQ:INTC | down 0.5% | $20 billion share sale |
Energy stocks held steady. Shares of Chevron NYSE:CVX, Exxon Mobil NYSE:XOM, and ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP traded little changed following Monday’s strong advance. In that session, Chevron rose 4.5%.
Risks: The diplomatic advances that have been reported may not result in a finalized deal or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices may turn back. A higher CPI reading could weigh on high-multiple stocks and the long end of the Treasury market.
The upcoming July CPI reading on Wednesday serves as the next key indicator. Analysts anticipate yearly inflation to ease to 3.4% from 3.5%. If the reading exceeds that estimate, it could challenge the S&P 500’s record performance as 10-year yields hover around 4.7%.
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