NEW YORK, August 14, 2026, 07:55 EDT — Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. NASDAQ:SPCX advanced 1.0% in Friday’s premarket to $142.71, pushing the stock up 36.1% from its $104.83 trough. Attention now turns to the August 20 share unlock, which will put the rally to the test.
- SpaceX stock is currently trading 36.8% under its 52-week peak.
- The share price is just 5.7% higher than its $135 IPO value.
- SpaceX reported a loss of $541 million in the second quarter, despite revenue almost doubling.
The recovery is significant as price discovery is still highly reactive to supply changes. As of August 6, up to 911.5 million restricted shares became available for sale. An additional block will become eligible in the following week. However, eligibility does not guarantee that holders will choose to sell.
The stock ended Thursday at $141.29, falling 3.3%. Ahead of Friday’s opening, shares were trading only $7.71 higher than the IPO price. With such a narrow margin, the August 20 unlock takes on added significance, beyond what the top-line recovery indicates.
| Price checkpoint | Value | Premarket gap |
|---|---|---|
| Friday premarket | $142.71 | — |
| August 13 close | $141.29 | up 1.0% |
| IPO price | $135.00 | up 5.7% |
| 52-week high | $225.64 | down 36.8% |
| 52-week low | $104.83 | up 36.1% |
High ownership concentration could ease near-term supply. Elon Musk, the company’s Chief Executive, disclosed holding a 48.4% stake as of June 30. Alphabet Inc. NASDAQ:GOOGL owned 551.2 million shares valued at around $94.2 billion at the end of the quarter, making it the leading institutional investor.
| Holder group | Estimated ownership | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk | 48.4% | June 30 regulatory filing |
| Alphabet | 7.2% | 551.2 million shares over 7.70 billion issued |
| All other holders | 44.4% | Remaining estimate |
The two holdings account for about 55.6% of shares in circulation. While this doesn’t remove selling pressure, it highlights how the tally of newly available shares may exaggerate what actually enters the market.
Second-quarter fundamentals saw significant improvement. Revenue surged 91.9% year-on-year to $7.81 billion, while the operating loss decreased by 81.8% to $141 million. The company, however, continued to post a loss.
| Second-quarter metric | 2026 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.81 billion | $4.07 billion | up 91.9% |
| Operating loss | $141 million | $775 million | improved by 81.8% |
| Net loss | $541 million | $1.01 billion | improved by 46.4% |
| EBITDA | $2.78 billion | $837 million | up 232.1% |
SpaceX surpassed revenue expectations for the quarter by 14.6%. The company posted a loss of nine cents per share, less than the consensus forecast for a 21-cent loss. Rapid sales expansion continues to outpace ongoing net losses, keeping the central question of valuation unresolved.
Wall Street sentiment is upbeat, though forecasts vary significantly. Out of 32 analysts, 24 recommend buying the stock. The consensus price target stands at $228.59, with published estimates ranging from $75 to $800. This wide gap reflects an elevated level of model risk.
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | Target | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Jonas | Morgan Stanley | Buy | $300 | Aug. 13 |
| Brian Dobson | Clear Street | Buy | $217 | Aug. 11 |
| Andrew Beale | Arete Research | Buy | $450 | Aug. 11 |
| Edison Yu | Deutsche Bank | Buy | $235 | Aug. 10 |
| Alexander Potter | Piper Sandler | Hold | $140 | Aug. 5 |
| Glenn Thum | Phillip Securities | Sell | $75 | July 31 |
Musk has stated that “the survival probability” for significant, long-duration short trades is “very low.” The remark highlights management’s assured outlook, but it does not clarify the extent of potential sales by holders of unlocked shares. Yahoo Finance
“spcx stock” has seen a surge in search activity, drawing renewed focus to the stock. Investors are watching to see if it stays above the $135 mark during the upcoming unlock—success there could reinforce the recovery. If it slips under that level, the post-IPO low could come back into play. Google Trends
Risks: Because restricted shares cannot be sold right away, the impact on supply might turn out less significant than some expect. On the other hand, a limited float, wide variation in analyst targets and ongoing losses can sharpen volatility. Premarket quotes are subject to change ahead of the market open.
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