STARBASE, Texas, August 23, 2026, 14:05 CDT – SpaceX’s shift to unlock 319 million shares is set to test market liquidity for SPCX around its initial public offering price of $135.
- SpaceX ended Friday at $136.97, representing a 1.5% gain over its $135 IPO price.
- The release of 319 million shares was equivalent to 2.7 times the total trading volume recorded on Thursday.
- The stock dropped 4.1% during the unlock session, then rebounded 2.2% on Friday.
- Analyst price targets range from $75 to $450, indicating an exceptionally broad valuation risk.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) closed the week close to its June issue price as 319 million shares became available following a lockup expiration. The newly tradable shares represented 2.68 times Thursday’s trading volume. For investors, this put market depth at the forefront as a test, rather than private-company liquidity. SpaceX began public trading on June 12.
The initial impact was limited. SPCX fell 4.05% on Thursday as the tranche opened up, but recovered with a 2.22% rise on Friday. The combined change over both sessions amounted to a 1.9% decrease. Over the week, shares rose 2.1% compared to the previous Friday’s close.
U.S. markets remained shut on Sunday. In the coming week, attention will focus on whether sellers take advantage of Friday’s recovery to sell. Eligibility does not confirm that all shares changed hands, and there is no public filing indicating the actual volume of the tranche sold.
| Liquidity test | Shares / value | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Unlock-eligible shares on Aug. 20 | 319.0 million | 2.68 times Aug. 20 volume |
| Aug. 20 turnover | 119.0 million | Unlock date |
| Aug. 21 turnover | 78.1 million | Unlock stands at 4.08 times |
| Theoretical unlock value at Friday’s close | $43.7 billion | Initial estimate |
| Friday’s closing price versus IPO | $136.97 vs $135.00 | Increased by 1.46% |
Buyers held the offering level firm as price action developed. The session low on Thursday was $130.39, yet Friday’s close finished $6.58 higher. Trading volume dropped by 34% compared to Thursday. This trend indicates there was no increase in forced selling leading into the weekend.
| Date | Close | Daily move | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 17 | $146.23 | up 4.45% | 115.7 million |
| Aug. 18 | $143.34 | down 1.98% | 83.5 million |
| Aug. 19 | $139.65 | off 2.57% | 75.1 million |
| Aug. 20 | $134.00 | down 4.05% | 119.0 million |
| Aug. 21 | $136.97 | up 2.22% | 78.1 million |
SpaceX’s balance sheet allows it to withstand a turbulent market entry. Revenue for the second quarter increased by 92% to $7.81 billion. The operating loss decreased to $143 million from $970 million. Following the IPO, cash and marketable securities stood at $100.0 billion, while total current and long-term debt and finance leases amounted to $39.4 billion.
Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen stated that the company’s cash position provided SpaceX with “substantial capacity to invest” in Starship, Starlink and AI. SpaceX also disclosed a backlog totaling $47.5 billion. This is significant as its capital expenditures for the second quarter stood at $18.37 billion. SpaceX second-quarter release
| Q2 segment | Revenue | YoY change | Operating income / loss | Capex |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Space | $962 million | +29% | -$542 million | $1.17 billion |
| Connectivity | $4.29 billion | +66% | +$1.66 billion | $1.37 billion |
| AI | $2.56 billion | +247% | -$1.26 billion | $15.83 billion |
Connectivity continues to be the main source of earnings. Starlink’s subscriber base grew twofold, reaching 12.0 million, though the average monthly revenue per user declined from $85 to $66. The AI division delivered the highest growth rate but accounted for 86% of total capital expenditure. Such concentration increases the challenge of execution.
Wall Street analysts hold widely varying views. On Thursday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst Adam Jonas maintained a Buy rating and set a $300 price target. Also that day, DZ Bank’s Markus Leistner issued a Sell recommendation. The consensus price target among 35 analysts is $213.50, yet forecasts span from $75 to $450.
| Analyst / measure | Recommendation | Target | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley | Buy | $300 | Aug. 20 |
| Markus Leistner, DZ Bank | Sell | Not supplied | Aug. 20 |
| Louie DiPalma, William Blair | Buy | Not supplied | Aug. 20 |
| Brian Dobson, Clear Street | Buy | $217 | Aug. 18 |
| 35-analyst consensus | Buy | $213.50 average | Updated Aug. 20 |
Risks: Additional lockup expirations may increase available float more rapidly than demand grows. Delays with Starship, lower prices for Starlink, reliance on AI customers, and high levels of infrastructure investment may weigh on valuation. The stock is still trading 39% under its intraday peak from June 16.
Investors are advised to monitor turnover near $135 next week. Maintaining that level with softer volume would indicate absorption of supply. However, a drop under Thursday’s $130.39 low would suggest otherwise. For the moment, liquidity has cleared its initial hurdle, but the process is not complete.
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