LONDON, September 3, 2026, 16:34 (BST)
- At 09:19 BST, UK NBP day-ahead gas traded at 176.80 pence per therm, a decrease of 2.1% compared to Wednesday’s close.
- Winter 2027 climbed 2.5%, and Summer 2028 advanced 7.3% in light trade.
- System demand dropped by 17.3% to 92.45 million cubic metres a day.
- EU storage reached 65.4% capacity, which is 18.2 percentage points beneath its five-year average.
UK day-ahead natural gas slipped 2.1% on Thursday morning, as Winter 2027 contracts increased by 2.5%. The divergence indicated that current supply assurance has yet to remove storage concerns for upcoming winters.
Front-month contracts responded to weaker demand and robust wind output. Longer-dated contracts stayed sensitive to limited European stockpiles and rivalry for liquefied natural gas supplies.
NBP day-ahead gas traded at 176.80 pence per therm as of 09:19 BST. October was at 177.93 pence, down 2.3% compared to Wednesday’s close. Winter 2026 slipped 2.1% to 178.63 pence.
NBP curve split after Wednesday’s rally
Pence per therm; settlement versus latest verified indicative level
Source: Catalyst Commercial. Later contracts were thinly traded; levels are indicative.
Further-out contracts require attention. Winter 2027 and Summer 2028 saw light trading, meaning individual trades had the potential to shift prices. Despite this, both contracts increased as the nearest four contracts fell.
The UK system started the day with a surplus of six million cubic metres per day. Demand fell by 17.3%, reaching 92.45 million cubic metres. Gas-fired power demand was projected at just 13 million cubic metres.
A looser system pulled down the front curve
Operational snapshot at 09:19 BST on September 3, 2026
Source: Catalyst Commercial market report. mcm means million cubic metres.
Supply concerns pushed in the opposite direction. Norwegian nominations reached 279.3 million cubic metres a day. A process issue at Kollsnes reduced output by a further six million cubic metres, equivalent to about 4.2% of the plant’s declared capacity.
Rising competition in Asian LNG increased strain. The JKM benchmark climbed to $25.52 per million British thermal units. As of August 31, EU storage levels stood at 65.4% full, compared to a five-year average of 83.6%.
Britain continues to draw from a varied supply base for summer. National Gas projects that domestic sources and Norway will account for 86% of the anticipated 25.3 billion cubic metres, while storage and LNG are set to make up the other 14%.
The combination grows less favorable amid falling domestic production. National Gas executive Ian Radley cautioned about “future risks arising from declining domestic production and an increasing reliance on imports.”
Households are expected to experience the delayed impact in October. Ofgem raised the standard yearly cap to £1,723, marking a 4% increase. The gas unit rate climbs 8.7% to 7.97 pence per kilowatt-hour.
Wholesale pressure reaches the household cap with a lag
Great Britain direct-debit averages; July–September versus October–December 2026
Source: Ofgem. Rates are rounded and include 5% VAT on gas.
For investors, the curve offers greater rewards for accurate hedging than for relying on a single gas-price outlook. Short-term consumers gain from wind generation and reduced demand. Those purchasing for winter continue to face costs tied to storage, outages, and LNG-related risks.
Risks: Sparse trading at a distance may amplify the curve divide. Increased Norwegian supply, warmer weather, or more rapid storage injections might reverse it swiftly.
Upcoming tests include Kollsnes repairs, Troll output following September 6, and the weekly storage update. EU regulations keep a 90% storage target between October and December.
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