Today: 8 June 2026
3X AI Chip ETF surged from $100,000 to $1.28 million, but future gains get harder

3X AI Chip ETF surged from $100,000 to $1.28 million, but future gains get harder

New York, May 29, 2026, 11:02 EDT

Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL) traded just above $220 early Friday, down from a $224.63 close, according to market data. That follows a big run over the past year. 24/7 Wall St. estimated a $100,000 investment made on May 28, 2025, would have been worth around $1.28 million by May 27.

AI-chip bets are spreading beyond Nvidia. U.S. equity funds brought in $1.97 billion during the week to May 27, Reuters reported. Technology funds saw $2.75 billion of inflows, making it eight weeks in a row. Nvidia recently pointed to strong demand for its AI chips.

This is important since SOXL aims to triple the daily change in the NYSE Semiconductor Index, not provide a steady three-times return over time. Direxion says the ETF is built for 300% of daily performance, and investors shouldn’t expect it to match three times the cumulative return of the index across more than one day.

SOXL’s rally was already sharp by early May, with a 24/7 Wall St. piece saying the ETF had surged more than 160% in 30 days and was trading close to $146. The article linked the move to a rebound in AI chip demand and a strong run in semiconductor stocks.

The index tracked by the fund is heavy in hardware players tied to the AI ramp-up, according to Direxion’s fact sheet. Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron Technology and Advanced Micro Devices top the holdings list. About 75% of the index is semiconductors, with the rest in semiconductor equipment. Unlevered funds like the iShares Semiconductor ETF and VanEck Semiconductor ETF target the sector directly but without leverage.

Nvidia posted record first-quarter revenue at $81.6 billion, with $75.2 billion coming from its data center segment. The company sees second-quarter revenue near $91 billion. CEO Jensen Huang said the push to build AI factories is the “largest infrastructure expansion in human history.” NVIDIA Newsroom

Dell stock climbed as the company reported AI server revenue at $16.1 billion, ahead of the PC business for the quarter. COO Jeff Clarke called memory chips “supply constrained” as buyers lock in supply for longer. Demand now goes beyond just chip designers. Reuters

Stocks kept up the same trend on Friday. Reuters reported the S&P tech sector added 2.2%, led by gains in chip names, and the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index was up 1.7%. Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY, said May was closing with a “risk-on bias” helped by “AI enthusiasm.” Reuters

The momentum in chips has drawn in a lot of money, making the trade crowded. Steve Edwards, a senior investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, called the semiconductor run a “perfect mix” of strong fundamentals and technicals. But Peter Tuz at Chase Investment Counsel said the fast, parabolic action makes him wonder if things are getting “too ebullient.” Reuters

Semiconductor stocks are still in a “multi-year capex cycle,” BakerAvenue Wealth Management chief strategist King Lip said. Ayako Yoshioka at Wealth Enhancement sees “room to run” but flagged a possible pause for the group. Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, said his firm plans to hold chip stocks as long as “positive momentum” lasts. Reuters

The trade can unwind even if the AI theme holds up. Volatility decay — which eats into returns when markets swing hard day to day — played a big role in SOXL’s 2022 slide. The fund fell about 90% that year. The unlevered iShares Semiconductor ETF dropped about 46% in the same stretch, per a 24/7 Wall St. risk look.

Next leg gets tough here. For the run to $500 that’s going around in retail circles, chip stocks would have to push higher and hold on, without much volatility. Just a couple of rough sessions can change the setup, even if Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD keep backing the AI spending theme.

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