New York, May 12, 2026, 13:03 (EDT)
- Apple ticked up a bit by midday, while Microsoft, Alphabet and Nvidia all slipped. The action pointed to an Apple-driven bump, not a sweeping megacap lift.
- Backing the stock: record March-quarter results, solid Services performance, a fresh $100 billion buyback plan, and hopes that WWDC will finally bring sharper detail on its AI strategy.
- The bearish view isn’t off the table. Sticky inflation, scaled-back Fed cut bets, memory costs on the rise, and supply bottlenecks all combine to limit hopes for a gentle product cycle.
Apple Inc. shares managed to stay positive Tuesday, edging up roughly 0.4% to around $293.85 after an intraday peak at $294.86. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Nvidia each slipped in midday action. On a difficult session for tech, Apple’s resilience stood out.
Here’s the gist: Apple isn’t being lumped in with the rest of the AI momentum names right now. Instead, traders are seeing earnings strength, hefty buybacks, and a key WWDC event just ahead. Notably, this shift in sentiment came as the Consumer Price Index – the key U.S. inflation measure – showed a 3.8% annual gain for April, including a sharp 17.9% jump in energy prices. Numbers like that usually spell trouble for richly valued growth stocks, since they raise the odds of rates staying elevated.
Apple laid down the numbers two weeks back: fiscal Q2 revenue hit $111.2 billion, a 17% annual bump. Diluted EPS landed at $2.01, up 22%. Tim Cook went with “best March quarter ever”—and the stats back him up. March records for total revenue, iPhones, and EPS. Services, too, notched a fresh high. Apple
That’s the story behind today’s chart resilience. The stock isn’t reacting to a single news flash. Investors are digesting a quarter where demand for iPhone 17 and Services stuck around. Apple bumped its dividend to $0.27 per share and signed off on another $100 billion in buybacks, trimming the share count over the long run—an extra cushion for drawdowns as long as cash flow confidence holds.
Apple held up better than rivals on a rough tape. The S&P 500 slipped 0.9% and the Nasdaq tumbled 1.6% late Tuesday morning, according to AP, as oil surged and AI chip names tanked—Intel, Micron and CoreWeave among the hardest hit. Macro forces weighed on Apple, too, but its trading didn’t mirror the slide in Nvidia or the rest of the hot chip crowd.
Bulls aren’t overthinking it: Apple’s massive installed base buys the company breathing room. They’re betting on AI as a way to spark hardware upgrades, grow Services revenue, and unlock more paid features—no need for Apple to outpace Microsoft, Alphabet, or Meta in the cloud arena. Wedbush’s Dan Ives recently bumped his Apple price target to $400 from $350, citing WWDC as a potential AI catalyst that could eventually tack on about $15 billion a year in Services revenue.
The bearish argument is straightforward. Apple’s trading at about 35.6 times earnings—a lofty multiple, especially as bets on rate cuts fade. On Polymarket, odds for the Fed to hold rates steady in June climbed to 98%, and the market assigned a 62% chance to no cuts at all in 2026. Over at Kalshi’s Fed page, the probability of a June pause sat at 97%, with 58% odds pointing to zero rate cuts for the entire year.
There’s a tough cost hurdle too. During Apple’s earnings call, Cook flagged “significantly higher memory costs” hitting the June quarter, with a warning that the squeeze might stretch past June. Gross margin takes the hit here—it’s the slice of revenue after direct product and service expenses. As chip and memory prices climb, Apple faces a trade-off: either hike prices or absorb the costs to keep unit demand steady. The Motley Fool
This is the dividing line in the market. Bulls point to the Services business, the buyback, and hopes that AI will juice the next iPhone cycle. Bears see constraints: supply, rising input costs, and worries that Apple is still lagging in AI compared with Microsoft’s Copilot, Google’s Gemini, and Nvidia’s edge in hardware.
There’s also China in the mix. According to Reuters, Cook is set to accompany President Donald Trump on his China visit this week, joining executives from Tesla, Boeing, Meta, and more. For Apple, this isn’t just for show. The company’s demand, supply, and exposure to tariffs all still hinge on China—so even a whiff of trade calm can move the stock.
It’s a double-edged sword. Reuters noted that hopes for the Trump-Xi meetings remain low, with analysts watching to see if leaders can keep the shaky trade truce alive. Even if the outcome is just a narrow pause, Apple’s old problems don’t disappear—manufacturing options, demand in China, and political risks all stick around.
After Apple released its earnings, Nabila Popal at IDC put the pricing debate in sharp relief. The real issue, she said, is whether Apple pushes prices up to keep margins fat or holds steady to grab more market share. That’s the crosscurrent running through the stock right now: Apple’s brand still carries weight on price, but investors want to see if the next iPhone lineup can take on costlier tags without cutting into sales.
The stock’s move doesn’t quite shout risk-on. Instead, it’s standing out for its relative strength in a shakier market. Apple’s got earnings momentum, a buyback program, an AI angle coming up, and a CEO making moves in China. Still, there’s that hefty valuation, cost pressures, and a market that’s written off any Fed rescue. So, the next move comes down to what Apple actually delivers—sentiment alone won’t cut it.
