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Interest Rates 17 September 2025 - 29 October 2025

Fed Cuts Rates, Stocks Soar — But U.S. Mortgage Rates Refuse to Budge

Fed Cuts Rates, Stocks Soar — But U.S. Mortgage Rates Refuse to Budge

At its Oct. 28–29 meeting, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 0.25% to a 3.75–4.00% range reuters.com, following a similar move in September. Fed officials, facing a softening job market and still-elevated inflation, emphasized the need to tread carefully. Governor Christopher Waller and Boston Fed chief Susan Collins publicly backed further rate cuts, noting inflation risks have eased and unemployment is the bigger concern floridarealtors.org floridarealtors.org. In contrast, some Fed members want caution and will likely avoid promising future cuts reuters.com reuters.com. Powell’s communications will be key – he is expected to leave options open rather than guarantee another cut in December reuters.com reuters.com.
29 October 2025
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Bitcoin Slides as Fed Meets – 98% of Traders Bet on Rate Cut Fueling Crypto Rally

Bitcoin Slides as Fed Meets – 98% of Traders Bet on Rate Cut Fueling Crypto Rally

All signs point to the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 0.25% at this week’s meeting, which concludes Wednesday, Oct. 29. According to the CME FedWatch tool and other market indicators, there is roughly a 97–98% probability of a quarter-point cut ts2.tech. This would set the federal funds rate around 4.0%–4.25%, down from the current 4.25%–4.50% range, and would be the Fed’s second cut this year coindesk.com. Major Wall Street firms are overwhelmingly aligned with this expectation: in fact, most top brokerages predict a 25 bps cut at each of the Fed’s two remaining meetings of 2025 reuters.com. Only a minority thinks the Fed might cut just once more this year reuters.com.
29 October 2025
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Shocking Rate Decision in Indonesia Sparks Market Jitters and Forecast Frenzy

Shocking Rate Decision in Indonesia Sparks Market Jitters and Forecast Frenzy

Indonesia’s central bank sprang a surprise on October 22 by keeping its key interest rate unchanged at 4.75%, defying widespread expectations of a rate cut. This decision – announced at the conclusion of Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors meeting – caught markets off guard, as most forecasters had penciled in a fourth consecutive cut. Economists polled before the meeting overwhelmingly predicted a 25 basis-point reduction to 4.50%reuters.com. In fact, a Wall Street Journal survey found six out of seven economists expected a cut, given the benign inflation backdrop and efforts to spur growthmorningstar.com. Instead, BI opted to pause its easing cycle, a move Governor Perry Warjiyo acknowledged was contrary to market betsidnfinancials.com.
22 October 2025
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US 10-Year Treasury Yield Skyrockets to 17-Year High – Markets and Mortgage Rates on Edge

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Skyrockets to 17-Year High – Markets and Mortgage Rates on Edge

The recent surge in the 10-year yield reflects a tug-of-war between inflation fears and hopes for easing policy. Stronger-than-expected inflation data and durable growth have led investors to demand more return on long-term loans. “The immediate market reaction was a swift surge in the 10-year Treasury yield, breaching 4.85%, the highest since 2008,” reports market analyst Huzaifa Z on Meyka meyka.com. In early October, yields had spiked to near 4.78% before pulling back. By Oct 13 they were around 4.03% ts2.tech, and after Powell’s dovish comments on Oct 14 they dipped to ~4.02% reuters.com. Traders still see some rate cuts ahead – “market pricing still sees more rate cuts on the way” ts2.tech – but the current yield level implies investors want a higher premium for inflation and government debt. Heavy U.S. deficits and even looming tariff threats are keeping long-term yields “elevated” ts2.tech.
20 October 2025
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Regional Bank Fraud Scare Sparks Panic – Is a Fed Rate Cut on the Horizon?

Regional Bank Fraud Scare Sparks Panic – Is a Fed Rate Cut on the Horizon?

Mid-sized banks shocked Wall Street this week with alarming disclosures of bad loans. Zions Bancorporation – a Utah-based regional lender – stunned investors by announcing a $50 million charge-off tied to two commercial loans that it says were compromised by fraud theguardian.com. In an SEC filing, Zions reported “misrepresentations and contractual defaults” by the borrowers and moved to accelerate the loans to default and sue the guarantors ts2.tech ts2.tech. Western Alliance, a Phoenix-based peer, also revealed it is dealing with a fraudulent borrower, having filed a lawsuit back in August after the client allegedly used fake collateral theguardian.com ts2.tech. These back-to-back fraud bombshells amplified scrutiny of regional banks’ lending practices and risk controls, fueling concern that similar hidden problems could be lurking elsewhere ts2.tech ts2.tech. “Hidden credit stress” is how one Reuters report described the market’s mood – essentially investors wondering if this was just the first cockroach out of the pantry ts2.tech.
17 October 2025
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Bond Bombshell: Powell’s Dovish Tone Sends Treasury Yields Plunging – 2-Year Notes at 2022 Lows

Bond Bombshell: Powell’s Dovish Tone Sends Treasury Yields Plunging – 2-Year Notes at 2022 Lows

After Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Oct 14 speech to business economists in Philadelphia, U.S. bond markets surged. Powell confirmed the Fed’s intent to proceed “meeting-by-meeting” with policy cuts and suggested the central bank may halt its $40 billion/month balance-sheet runoff soon reuters.com swissinfo.ch. His message – a familiar but balanced tone – calmed traders. 10-year Treasury yields plunged from about 4.1% into the low 4.0% range reuters.com swissinfo.ch, while 2-year yields dropped even more on expectations of aggressive rate easing.
15 October 2025
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Powell’s High-Stakes Speech Spurs Markets – Fed Signals More Rate Cuts in 2025

Powell’s High-Stakes Speech Spurs Markets – Fed Signals More Rate Cuts in 2025

Sources: Fed Chair Powell NABE speech coverageapnews.comreuters.com; Reuters analysis of Fed outlook and expert quotesreuters.comreuters.com; Associated Press report on Powell’s remarks and Fed policy shiftapnews.comapnews.com; Dow Jones Market summary and global market reactionfastbull.comreuters.com; TS² TechStock news digest on Fed and market trendsts2.techts2.tech.
14 October 2025
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U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Surges to Highest Since 2007 – What It Means for You

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Surges to Highest Since 2007 – What It Means for You

After spiking at the end of September, the 10-year Treasury yield has eased slightly. It stood around 4.03% on Oct. 13, essentially unchanged from the prior sessionnuveen.com. By Oct. 14 it was roughly 4.02%. This pullback follows a sharp selloff in bonds earlier in the week: 10-year yields had climbed from ~4.23% at end-September to near 4.78% on Oct. 6cashfinancialllc.com. Treasuries rallied into mid-October, however, as investors shifted back into bonds. As one market report noted, yields “ticked down” as gold topped $4,000/oz and other safe havens surgedts2.tech. In short, 10-year yields are now back in the low-4% range – roughly 15–20 basis points below the early-October high, but well above levels of 2023.
14 October 2025
Massive Moves: Record Deals, FDA Wins & Crypto Mania Propel Top Stock Gainers (Sep 29, 2025)

Record Rally Stalls as Fed Cut Bets Soar and Earnings Loom

After a streak of record-setting gains, Wall Street’s rally took a breather heading into the weekend. On Wednesday the S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched all-time closing highs, but Thursday saw a mild pullback across major indicesnasdaq.com. The S&P 500 dipped about 0.3% Thursday, the Dow fell 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.1%econotimes.com, pausing a record-breaking tech-driven surge. High-flying semiconductor and AI stocks led the dip – for instance, Dell Technologies tumbled -5% and Micron -2% amid profit-takingnicoop.com.
10 October 2025
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Asian Markets Routed by Tariff Shock and Rate Jitters – Weekly Wrap-Up

Asian Markets Routed by Tariff Shock and Rate Jitters – Weekly Wrap-Up

Asian equities ended the week on a downbeat note, with virtually all major bourses in negative territory by Friday’s close. The sell-off was widespread, triggered by a mix of global headwinds. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.87% to 45,354.99 on Friday, snapping a three-day rally english.news.cn. Notably, it closed at the day’s low as traders reacted to U.S. policy signals and trade worries. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index sank 1.4% to 26,128 scmp.com, marking its first weekly decline in September amid a pullback from recent highs. The tech-heavy Hang Seng Tech Index fared even worse, plummeting 2.9% on the day scmp.com. Over in mainland China, benchmark indexes also lost ground – the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.7%, while the blue-chip CSI 300 index dropped about 1.0% scmp.com. These declines erased what had been gains earlier in the month; the Hang Seng, for instance, had hit a four-year peak last week before reversing course scmp.com.
27 September 2025
August PCE Inflation Rises Again – Is the Fed’s Rate Cut Plan in Jeopardy?

August PCE Inflation Rises Again – Is the Fed’s Rate Cut Plan in Jeopardy?

The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report shows that price pressures picked up slightly in August. According to the Commerce Department data released on September 26, the overall PCE price index was up 2.7% in August 2025 compared to a year earlier wtop.com. That marks a gentle increase from the 2.6% annual inflation rate in July, and is the fastest year-over-year PCE inflation reading since February. In practical terms, American consumers in August paid on average 2.7% more for the basket of goods and services than they did in August 2024. While that rise is modest by historical standards, it does indicate a second consecutive month of accelerating inflation, after prices had been decelerating earlier in the year.
26 September 2025
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Tariff Shocks & Rate Jitters Ignite Wild 48 Hours in European Markets

Tariff Shocks & Rate Jitters Ignite Wild 48 Hours in European Markets

European equities seesawed over the two days, buffeted by transatlantic trade tensions and shifting rate expectations. On Thursday Sept. 25, the STOXX Europe 600 index dropped 0.7%, touching levels not seen in three weeks reuters.com. Almost every major bourse closed in the red reuters.com as traders digested a slew of worrying signals: fresh U.S. trade investigations into high-tech imports, surprisingly robust U.S. economic data, and guarded comments from central bankers. By Friday Sept. 26, however, markets regained footing – the STOXX 600 ticked up roughly +0.3% by midday reuters.com and was on track to finish the eventful week slightly higher brecorder.com. The late-week relief came as investors pivoted to bargain-hunting in financial and industrial shares and awaited key U.S. inflation data for clues on interest rates reuters.com.
26 September 2025
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Global Markets on Edge as Fed Rate Decision Nears: Asia Optimistic, West Cautious

Fed’s First Rate Cut Since 2024 Sparks Market Whiplash – Dow Rallies as Tech Stocks Tumble

Wall Street wrapped up September 17 with a split decision. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.56% to close around 46,013 reuters.com, extending its uptrend thanks in part to strength in financial and industrial stocks. The S&P 500 eased 0.1% to ~6,600 reuters.com, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.33% to ~22,261 reuters.com. Earlier in the session, all three indices seesawed between gains and losses as traders reacted in real-time to the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision and Powell’s commentary. Notably, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had been at record highs just a day or two prior, buoyed by optimism around a potential Fed pivot and booming AI-driven stocks nasdaq.com nasdaq.com. That set the stage for some profit-taking once the news hit.
17 September 2025
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