
Take-Two Interactive Software stock declined 2.12% while Rockstar Games initiated its last marketing campaign for Grand Theft Auto VI.
| Metric | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2027 bookings | $1.39B | −3% year on year; slightly above guidance |
| Recurrent consumer spending | 84% of bookings | −1% year on year |
| FY2026 bookings | $6.72B | Baseline before GTA VI launch year |
| GTA V installed base | >230M units | Proof of franchise durability |
| GTA VI pre-orders | “Unprecedented” | Management description; not yet recognized sales |
Search attention and the showcase are strong. The stock still fell 2.12%, suggesting investors want execution evidence, not another anticipation cycle.
At $228.50, the market discounts roughly 30% upside to the analyst target. That spread also embeds delay, launch-quality and mobile-performance risk.
| Units | Standard | Ultimate |
|---|---|---|
| 10M | $0.80B | $1.00B |
| 25M | $2.00B | $2.50B |
| 50M | $4.00B | $5.00B |
| Buy / Hold / Sell | 27 / 0 / 1 |
| Average target | $286.89 |
| Implied upside | 23.2% |
| Low / High | $170 / $368 |
| Edition | Price |
|---|---|
| Standard | $79.99 |
| Ultimate | $99.99 |
| Upgrade | +$20 / +25% |
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Q1 FY27 net bookings | $1.39bn · −3% YoY |
| Q1 GAAP revenue | $1.53bn |
| Q1 GAAP net result | −$34.1m |
| Recurrent share of bookings | 84% |
| FY27 GAAP revenue outlook | $7.9–8.1bn |
| FY27 operating cash flow | >$1.0bn |
| Firm · date | View | Target |
|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan · Aug 11 | Overweight | $310 |
| Roth · Aug 10 | Buy | $300 |
| Wells Fargo · Aug 10 | Overweight | $300 |
| Oppenheimer · Aug 10 | Outperform | $280 |
| BTIG · Aug 10 | Buy | $313 |
High preview engagement converts into stronger pre-orders and an above-plan Ultimate mix. A 10m-edition upgrade scenario adds $200m of gross consumer spending.
The preview stabilizes marketing control. Fiscal 2027 bookings remain near the $8.1bn midpoint and the November 19 launch holds.
Technical criticism, weak premium mix or another delay narrows the valuation gap. Muted engagement after Aug. 27 is the first observable warning.
The value still missing equals 1.19× Take-Two's projected company-wide bookings increase at the fiscal 2027 midpoint.
| Signal | Bull case | Bear case | Level to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 27 preview | Verified footage resets the narrative | Presentation lacks new proof points | $248.39 |
| Release timing | November 19 date holds | Another delay shifts bookings | Official guidance |
| Price support | After-hours recovery carries forward | Friday close fails | $239.62 |
| Downside test | Aug. 20 low remains intact | Leak discount widens | $231.58 |
Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. · Market status: U.S. premarket
Regular-session closes, EDT. The stock recovered from Wednesday's $237.04 close but finished the week lower.
Leaks weakened launch control; legal action limited the damage.
Unauthorized GTA VI footage surfaced before the August 27 preview. Take-Two subpoenaed Microsoft and Discord. Shares briefly lost about $2.8B of value, then recovered as the November 19 release stayed on track.
Current price is 90.1% of the 52-week high.
| FY2027 | Value |
|---|---|
| Guidance low | $8.00B |
| Guidance midpoint | $8.10B |
| LSEG estimate | $8.86B |
| Gap | $760M |
The Street expects 9.4% more than management's midpoint.
| Metric | Q1 FY27 |
|---|---|
| Net bookings | $1.39B |
| YoY bookings | −3% |
| GAAP revenue | $1.534B |
| GAAP net loss | $34.1M |
| Recurrent mix | 84% |
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Buy | 27 |
| Hold | 0 |
| Sell | 1 |
| Target range | $170–$368 |
| Average | $286.89 |
| Date | Catalyst | Investor question |
|---|---|---|
| Aug. 27 | Netflix extended preview | Does engagement support conversion? |
| Sept. 4 | Subpoena response deadline | Is the leak source contained? |
| Nov. 19 | GTA VI launch | Do preorders become paid units? |
| Post-launch | Online roadmap | Can recurrent spending persist? |
Bull: exceptional preorders, $100 edition mix, online details.
Bear: more leaks, weaker preview, delays, cancellations.
Key swing: the $760M bookings gap.
Data: Take-Two, Reuters/LSEG, StockAnalysis, Investing.com and The Verge. Price and market value as of August 21, 2026, 16:00 EDT. Dashboard prepared August 24, 2026, 04:22 EDT. Figures may differ slightly across delayed feeds.
Consensus: Strong Buy. Twenty-seven of 28 recommendations are Buy or Strong Buy.
The market punished loss of marketing control, then bought the schedule. Thursday's August 27 extended preview is the next measurable checkpoint. Engagement and a firm November 19 release date matter more than the leaked clips themselves.
Down 3% year on year. Recurrent consumer spending was 84% of bookings. GAAP revenue rose 2% to $1.53bn.
The company also guides to GAAP revenue of $7.9bn–$8.1bn and capital spending near $290m.
Further leaks, a weak reveal, cancellations, launch slippage or soft mobile bookings could challenge the bullish target range.
Market data: August 21, 2026, 4:00 p.m. EDT · U.S. market closed
Preliminary calculation from the August 18 high, August 20 low and Friday close. Price movement has multiple causes.
| Event | Date |
|---|---|
| Reported subpoenas filed | Aug. 20 |
| Official GTA VI extended look | Aug. 27 |
| Requested subpoena response | Sept. 4 |
| GTA VI launch | Nov. 19 |
The August 27 stream starts at 3 p.m. EDT on Netflix and 9 p.m. EDT on Rockstar channels.
| Measure | Value | Gap |
|---|---|---|
| Company low | $8.0bn | −9.7% |
| Company midpoint | $8.1bn | −8.6% |
| Company high | $8.2bn | −7.4% |
| Street estimate cited by Reuters | $8.86bn | Reference |
Guidance is unchanged despite unusually strong preorder demand.
| Firm | View | Target | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTIG | Buy | $313 | 30.6% |
| J.P. Morgan | Buy | $310 | 29.4% |
| Roth Capital | Buy | $300 | 25.2% |
| Wolfe Research | Buy | $289 | 20.6% |
| 28-analyst average | Strong Buy | $286.89 | 19.7% |
Risks: Rockstar has not fully authenticated the leaked material. Legal outcomes remain uncertain. GTA VI could face delays, weak preorder conversion, higher launch costs or softer engagement. Market-value estimates use an implied share count.
| Q1 bookings | Share |
|---|---|
| Mobile | 53% |
| Console | 38% |
| PC & other | 9% |
| Digital distribution | 99% |
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