NEW YORK, June 29, 2026, 13:02 EDT
- Roblox shares jumped roughly 14% Monday afternoon after Arete raised its rating on the stock to Buy.
- Arete’s $95 target puts the company’s equity value near $67.6 billion, using the current market value.
- Roblox named 26 teams for its first Incubator group—a small market test for games targeting older users.
- The trade is notable as it bets on a bounce in users and cash flows even though there’s no Q2 data yet showing the safety issues are behind it.
Roblox Corporation NYSE:RBLX jumped 14.2% to $54.30 Monday afternoon after Arete Research switched to a bullish call on the videogame company. Shares reached as high as $55.32 during the session. Volume was at 10.2 million, putting Roblox’s market cap at $38.65 billion.
Arete’s David Mak upgraded Roblox to Buy from Neutral and bumped his price target up to $95 from $75. The firm said “at $45, Arete is a buyer.” Its 2027 bookings forecast now sits 5% above consensus, as reported by The Fly. TipRanks
The call’s market value angle isn’t getting much attention. At $95, Roblox would carry a live market cap close to $67.6 billion—around $29 billion more than now. That level pushes it higher than Electronic Arts NASDAQ:EA or Take-Two Interactive Software NASDAQ:TTWO, even with their different businesses and profit numbers.
| Live price, around 12:46 p.m. EDT | Price | Day change | Market cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roblox Corporation NYSE:RBLX | $54.30 | up 14.2% | $38.65 bln |
| Electronic Arts NASDAQ:EA | $205.11 | down 0.1% | $51.89 bln |
| Take-Two Interactive Software NASDAQ:TTWO | $244.63 | up 2.6% | $45.30 bln |
| Unity Software NYSE:U | $28.21 | down 0.1% | $12.25 bln |
| Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLC) | $107.81 | up 1.5% | — |
| Invesco QQQ Trust NASDAQ:QQQ | $720.28 | up 1.9% | — |
Moves in peers and ETFs point to Roblox’s action Monday standing out from just a sector move. Meta Platforms NASDAQ:META, a big name in communication services, gained 2.7%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) rose 1.3%.
| Valuation check | Current / implied |
|---|---|
| Roblox shares now | $54.30 |
| Roblox market cap now | $38.65 bln |
| Arete price target | $95 |
| Market cap at $95 | ~$67.6 bln |
| Arete upside value | ~$29.0 bln |
| 2026 bookings mid estimate | ~$7.47 bln |
| Equity/bookings 2026 mid | ~5.2x now; ~9.1x at $95 |
| 2026 FCF mid guide | ~$1.20 bln |
| Equity/FCF 2026 mid | ~32x now; ~56x at $95 |
Roblox lowered its outlook in the first-quarter letter. The company now sees 2026 bookings growth of 8% to 12%, down from previous guidance. It put free-cash-flow guidance at $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion and said Q2 daily active users are expected to fall from Q1 levels.
Roblox rolled out a list of 26 teams for its new Incubator group on Monday, a half-year initiative that targets “novel games” for older users. The company said games from this group should see a 42% jump in DevEx rates tied to in-game spending by verified U.S. players 18 and up. The latest stat wasn’t displayed on the quote screen. Roblox
The stock’s move is a play on a tight pipeline. Back in April, Roblox reported over 8,000 applications for its wider creator program in two months. The Incubator group is far smaller, but it’s part of the same older-user push that Arete thinks could drive bookings back up.
Roblox says users over 18 bring stronger economics. In the first quarter, those over 18 made up 26% of its age-checked daily users. In the U.S., that group spent more than 50% above under-18 users. Roblox added that these age-checked numbers are estimates and can’t be directly compared to older self-reported numbers.
CEO David Baszucki told the April earnings call that Roblox aims to set the global bar for safe, age-appropriate digital use. He said the company rolled out global age checks on chat.
The risk is safety changes may keep hurting usage before older-player games pick up. TipRanks said Monday that Citi’s Jason Bazinet pointed to RoMonitor data showing average peak concurrent users fell 5% in the week of June 15-21 from a year earlier, and warned Q2 bookings might come in near the low end of Roblox’s forecast.
Google Finance puts the 12-month average price target for Roblox at $64.73, based on estimates from 23 Wall Street analysts. The range runs from a low of $45 up to a high of $100. Arete’s $95 call sits near the top of that spread and stands around 47% higher than the average.
