Vanguard’s Grim 10‑Year Forecast Puts the 4% Retirement Rule at Risk — What Retirees Should Do Now
Published: December 3, 2025 If you retired planning to “just follow the 4% rule,” today’s headlines should make you sit up. Vanguard’s latest capital markets outlook projects that U.S. stocks may return only about 2.8%–4.8% a year over the next decade, while high‑quality bonds are expected to earn around 4.3%–5.3% annually. PR Newswire+1 At the same time, a MarketWatch column published this morning warns that a “lost decade” of low stock returns could be devastating for retirees who keep withdrawing a fixed 4% a year regardless of market conditions. MarketWatch+1 Layer on the demographic reality: about 11,400 Americans are turning 65 every single day in 2025,