Keysight Technologies, Inc. reported record orders and raised its outlook, yet its shares fell 11.7% last week. The divergence is prompting investors to assess if AI-driven demand will translate into revenue quickly enough.
| Metric | Q3 FY26 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Orders | $2.09bn | +56% |
| Revenue | $1.85bn | +36% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $3.07 | +79% |
| Operating margin | 33.2% | +820 bps |
| Free cash flow | $403m | +38% |
| Firm | Rating | Target |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | $440 |
| Susquehanna | Buy | $440 |
| Morgan Stanley | Buy | $425 |
| JPMorgan | Buy | $425 |
| Truist | Hold | $400 |
A wider tech selloff met a demanding valuation. Investors also focused on parts and internal-capacity constraints that may slow order conversion despite record demand.
Orders exceeded $2 billion for a second quarter. Wireline revenue passed wireless for the first time, while Q4 guidance topped prior consensus by 6% on revenue and 26% on EPS.
| Metric | Result |
|---|---|
| Q2 sales | $3.274B · +24% YoY |
| Organic growth | 18% |
| Adjusted operating margin | 22.6% · +410 bps |
| Adjusted free cash flow | $925M · +234% |
| 2026 sales guide | $13.8B–$14.2B |
| 2026 adjusted EPS guide | $6.65–$6.75 |
First support: $253.17. A break below the 200-day average would damage the trend. A recovery through $293.89 would reclaim the 50-day line. Nvidia earnings on August 26 test AI spending; Jackson Hole can reset the yield hurdle.
Nevada replaced a narrow interim limit with commercial authority for up to 5,000 Tesla robotaxis. The permit removes a regulatory bottleneck. The next valuation test is deployment: inspections, insurance and fare filings still come before paid rides.
| Firm | Call | Target | Vs. close |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLJ Research | Sell | $24.86 | -93.1% |
| Jefferies | Hold | $350 | -3.5% |
| TD Cowen | Buy | $460 | +26.8% |
| Stifel | Buy | $491 | +35.3% |
| Reference | Level | Gap |
|---|---|---|
| 50-day average | $74.52 | +6.8% |
| 200-day average | $88.42 | −10.0% |
| 52-week high | $126.71 | −37.2% |
| 52-week low | $65.08 | +22.3% |
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | 25.1× |
| Forward P/E | 23.0× |
| Trailing FCF | $11.15B |
| FCF margin | 23.1% |
| 2026 revenue guide | $51.0B–$51.4B |
| Blood Sacrifice | 5 episodes |
| Global launch | Aug. 20 |
| H1 Netflix viewing | >97B hours |
| Next checkpoint | Weekly Top 10 rank and staying power |
A country-level or global Top 10 debut would confirm discovery. Persistence would matter more. A short-lived UK ranking would not justify a revenue revision on its own.
| Target | Value | Vs. $344.82 |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus average | $428.04 | +24.13% |
| Low | $340 | −1.40% |
| High | $515 | +49.35% |
| Revenue test | Value |
|---|---|
| Q1 FY27 actual | $81.62B |
| Q2 guide midpoint | $91.00B |
| Q2 consensus | $92.16B |
| Street premium to guide | +1.27% |
| Expected adjusted EPS | $2.09 |
| Firm | Rating | Target | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | Outperform | $340 | 58% |
| Benchmark | Buy | $335 | 56% |
| Oppenheimer | Buy | $265 | 23% |
| Consensus | Strong Buy | $304.73 | 42% |
Down 3% year on year. Recurrent consumer spending was 84% of bookings. GAAP revenue rose 2% to $1.53bn.
The company also guides to GAAP revenue of $7.9bn–$8.1bn and capital spending near $290m.
Further leaks, a weak reveal, cancellations, launch slippage or soft mobile bookings could challenge the bullish target range.
Market data as of August 21, 2026, 16:00 EDT (22:00 CEST). U.S. market closed.
| Firm | Rating | Target | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| BofA | Buy | $145 | +61.0% |
| Baird | Neutral | $125 | +38.8% |
| UBS | Hold | $112 | +24.4% |
| Mizuho | Hold | $109 | +21.0% |
| JPMorgan | Sell | $85 | -5.6% |
| Measure | Latest | Read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 revenue | $16.1B | +25% year on year |
| Data Center & AI revenue | $6.3B | +59% year on year |
| Foundry revenue | $5.8B | +31% year on year |
| Foundry operating result | -$2.1B | Core execution risk |
| Base offering proceeds | $20.0B gross | Extends the investment runway |
| Consensus target | $114.88 | 27.5% above Friday |
Sources: Intel offering filing and Q2 release; Nasdaq/Yahoo Finance closing data; Reuters market coverage; StockAnalysis and Benzinga analyst data. Returns and target gaps are calculated from cited prices. Informational only, not investment advice.
| Target | Price | Move from close |
|---|---|---|
| Low | $215 | -30.5% |
| Average | $326.34 | +5.5% |
| Median | $335 | +8.3% |
| High | $400 | +29.3% |
| What to watch | Verified baseline | Bull case | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| September product event | First-half September timing is reported, not official | Pro-first mix lifts average price | Delay or weaker premium demand |
| iPhone momentum | Q3 revenue +21.7% year over year | Upgrade cycle extends | Lower-priced models arrive later |
| Gross margin | 50.1%; about 2 points from tariff refunds | Mix offsets component costs | Underlying margin nearer 48.1% by simple subtraction |
| Street valuation | $326.34 average target | High target reaches $400 | Low target is $215 |
The Dow led a broad repair rally, but every major index still lost ground for the week. Long Treasury yields remain the valuation test; Nvidia and Jackson Hole now set the next direction.
Official Friday closes and weekly changes: AP market close. Percentages are rounded; all figures are historical, not live.
| 10Y Treasury | ≈4.74% | valuation headwind |
|---|---|---|
| 30Y Treasury | ≈5.28% | duration stress |
| WTI crude | ≈$86.85 | inflation/geopolitics |
| Brent crude | ≈$94 | energy support |
| Gold futures | ≈$4,675 | safe-haven bid |
| Dollar index | ≈98.83 | weekly softness |
Historical observations around the Aug. 21 close; rounded and not executable quotes. Source ↗
Rounded historical moves at the Aug. 21 close. Catalysts: market recap ↗
The 10-year stabilizes below 4.75%, Nvidia expectations hold, and Friday’s equal-weight leadership persists. Watch S&P 7,674 as the first acceptance test.
The 30-year retests 5.30%, oil stays near $90 WTI, and semiconductors resume relative weakness. Nasdaq 26,000 is the first round-number stress marker.
NYSE/Nasdaq reopenFirst test of Friday’s rebound and rate-sensitive growth leadership.
July new-home salesHousing demand and mortgage-rate sensitivity. Official schedule; no estimate shown.
Durable goods + personal income/outlaysGrowth, capex and inflation inputs arrive together.
Nvidia Q2 FY2027 resultsCompany says commentary is expected around 16:20; call at 17:00. Consensus, not company guidance: roughly $92.2B revenue and $2.09 adjusted EPS.
Advance economic indicatorsJuly trade, retail and wholesale inventory signals.
Jackson Hole symposiumTheme: “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.” Exact speech times were not yet published in the official calendar.
Marvell earnings callSecond read-through for AI networking and semiconductor demand.
Weekend geopolitical headlines can gap oil, yields and index futures before cash trading resumes. Futures are indications, not qualifying equity trading, and this dashboard does not imply that U.S. stocks are trading now.
Informational only; historical prices may be delayed or rounded.
Market data: August 21, 2026, 4:00 p.m. EDT · U.S. market closed
Preliminary calculation from the August 18 high, August 20 low and Friday close. Price movement has multiple causes.
| Event | Date |
|---|---|
| Reported subpoenas filed | Aug. 20 |
| Official GTA VI extended look | Aug. 27 |
| Requested subpoena response | Sept. 4 |
| GTA VI launch | Nov. 19 |
The August 27 stream starts at 3 p.m. EDT on Netflix and 9 p.m. EDT on Rockstar channels.
| Measure | Value | Gap |
|---|---|---|
| Company low | $8.0bn | −9.7% |
| Company midpoint | $8.1bn | −8.6% |
| Company high | $8.2bn | −7.4% |
| Street estimate cited by Reuters | $8.86bn | Reference |
Guidance is unchanged despite unusually strong preorder demand.
| Firm | View | Target | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTIG | Buy | $313 | 30.6% |
| J.P. Morgan | Buy | $310 | 29.4% |
| Roth Capital | Buy | $300 | 25.2% |
| Wolfe Research | Buy | $289 | 20.6% |
| 28-analyst average | Strong Buy | $286.89 | 19.7% |
Risks: Rockstar has not fully authenticated the leaked material. Legal outcomes remain uncertain. GTA VI could face delays, weak preorder conversion, higher launch costs or softer engagement. Market-value estimates use an implied share count.
HD and 1080p60 upgrades can reduce product friction before football season. Friday’s decline says the market is still focused on the harder task: keeping 5.75 million North American subscribers while rebuilding EBITDA and cash flow.
| Quarter | NA subscribers | Adj. EBITDA margin | Net loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY26 | 6.20M | 2.46% | $46.4M* |
| Q2 FY26 | 5.70M | 2.40% | $6.2M |
| Q3 FY26 | 5.75M | 1.29% | $25.7M |
FUBO lagged the group Friday, but led it for the week. Below-average volume makes the one-day signal less decisive.
Consensus remains bullish after Q3. The targets still assume that Disney scale turns into durable margin expansion.
| Reference | Amount | ATM multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Cash + restricted cash | $508.8M | 1.18× |
| Q3 revenue midpoint | $272.5M | 2.20× |
| H1 capex | $335.1M | 1.79× |
| H1 investing cash use | $633.7M | 0.95× |
| Q2 actual | $191.9M |
| Q3 low | $255.0M |
| Q3 midpoint | $272.5M |
| Q3 high | $290.0M |
| Sale price | New shares | Dilution |
|---|---|---|
| $129.10 | 4.65M | 5.47% |
| $124.82 | 4.81M | 5.66% |
| $112.56 | 5.33M | 6.28% |
| Low target | $109 |
| Average | $163.40 |
| Median | $178 |
| High | $220 |
NASDAQ: AAOI · Investor snapshot
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. · U.S. market closed Friday, August 21, 2026
-3.32% Friday
Closed August 21 at 4:00 p.m. EDT.
-9.83% vs. close
Nasdaq last sale at 6:25 p.m. EDT. Extended-hours prices can be thin.
Raymond James and Needham may sell shares over time. AOI is not required to use it.
2% sales commissionAt Friday's close, equal to 5.7% of the 84.91 million shares outstanding on August 20.
The balance sheet is liquid, but capacity expansion consumes cash quickly. The new authorization is 1.18× June cash plus restricted cash.
Midpoint implies 42.0% sequential growth. Management says demand may exceed capacity through mid-2027.
Consensus: Buy from six analysts. Three were Holds. Targets were last updated before the ATM filing.
The SEC illustration is mechanical, not a forecast. Actual prices and issued shares will vary.
Equity funds the 800G and 1.6T ramp. Q3 revenue reaches or exceeds the $272.5 million midpoint.
AOI sells gradually. Investors weigh added capacity against a persistent supply overhang.
Weak pricing forces more shares into the market while production delays or customer timing slow the ramp.
Sources: August 21 Form 8-K, prospectus supplement, Q2 Form 10-Q, company Q2 release, S&P Global analyst data via StockAnalysis, and Nasdaq market data. Calculations use displayed figures and may differ due to rounding.
Growth is picking up pace. Cash conversion continues to be the key factor for valuation.
| Metric | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | $1.66B | -$6.81B |
| Inventory | $4.68B | $12.90B |
| Receivables | $2.20B | $6.13B |
| Net income | $1.05B | $2.23B |
Market open · delayed snapshot
August 21, 2026 · 14:23 EDT (UTC−04:00)
Apple lagged the Nasdaq by 1.06 percentage points.
Tariff refunds added $0.11 per share and about two gross-margin points.
The operating story remains strong. But a 35.57× trailing multiple and only 5.5% to the average target leave little room for a product delay or slower AI uptake.
| Metric | Old | Updated |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 revenue | $12.6M | $13.5M |
| Revenue growth | 116% | 157% |
| GAAP op. loss | $30.6M | $29.9M |
| FY revenue guide | $43.0M | $45.1M |
| 2026 target | 30 logical qubits |
| Illinois system | 2027 deployment |
| Commerce LOI | Up to $100M |
| New headquarters | ~107,000 sq. ft. |
