NEW YORK, July 29, 2026, 19:00 EDT — U.S. regular trading ended; after-hours session saw continued activity.
- Cipher Digital ended the session at $17.69, falling 13.4%, with 39.7 million shares traded.
- Five of Bitcoin’s AI data center peers dropped by an average of 12.7%. Bitcoin itself rose roughly 0.2%.
- Second-quarter earnings will be released ahead of the market opening on August 4.
Cipher Digital Inc. NASDAQ:CIFR ended Wednesday’s session at $17.69, falling 13.4%. The drop wiped approximately $1.1 billion from its market capitalisation based on initial estimates. Trading volume was 39.7 million shares, about 1.55 times the recent average.
The key indicator was found in the comparison set. Cipher trailed five AI-data-center competitors by just 0.7 percentage point. Bitcoin, on the other hand, showed little movement.
| Asset or company | Latest price or close | Wednesday move |
|---|---|---|
| Cipher Digital Inc. NASDAQ:CIFR | $17.69 | -13.44% |
| IREN Ltd. NASDAQ:IREN | $29.31 | -13.65% |
| Applied Digital Corp. NASDAQ:APLD | $23.22 | -12.77% |
| TeraWulf Inc. NASDAQ:WULF | $15.09 | -11.67% |
| Hut 8 Corp. NASDAQ:HUT | $88.18 | -12.81% |
| Core Scientific Inc. NASDAQ:CORZ | $18.12 | -12.75% |
| Average for five peers | — | -12.73% |
| Bitcoin | $63,862 | +0.23% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 24,442.94 | -1.74% |
The peer average reflects an early-stage, equally weighted estimate.
The split indicates investors are viewing Cipher as an AI-infrastructure stock, rather than trading it in line with bitcoin. There was no new company project unveiled on Wednesday to account for the drop. Cipher’s most recent announcement detailed only scheduled investor conferences.
Wall Street faced selling pressure. The Nasdaq dropped 1.74% following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. AI infrastructure provider Vertiv Holdings Co. NYSE:VRT tumbled 17% after its revenue results came in below forecasts.
Ryan Detrick, strategist at Carson Group, stated the central issue is “how much pressure will they have to hike in September?” Elevated yields diminish the present value of cash flows anticipated in future years, which is significant for data centers that remain under development. Reuters
Cipher shares have sharply reversed course, erasing most of last week’s gains.
| Period | Starting close | Ending close | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week ending July 24 | $17.56 as of July 17 | $23.15 | +31.8% |
| Current week to Wednesday | $23.15 as of July 24 | $17.69 | -23.6% |
| Since July 23 closing high | $25.82 | $17.69 | -31.5% |
Figures for returns are initial estimates based on closing prices.
Two optimistic analyst calls did not stop the slide. Chardan Capital’s Bill Papanastasiou started coverage with a Buy and set a $32 price target. KBW followed by increasing its own target from $27 to $32. That level is roughly 81% above where shares finished on Wednesday.
Investors are valuing Cipher ahead of demonstrated revenue growth. The company posted first-quarter revenue of $34.8 million, entirely generated from bitcoin mining operations. Adjusted EBITDA stood at a negative $48.2 million.
Cipher has secured contracts for 700 megawatts in high-performance computing capacity. In its May presentation, the company forecast $11.4 billion in contracted revenue, with projected average yearly net operating income close to $787 million. Chief Executive Tyler Page described 2026 as “the year of execution for Cipher.” GlobeNewswire
| Measure | Reported first-quarter base | Contracted HPC base |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $34.8 million in mining revenue for the quarter | Approximately $11.4 billion throughout the base lease duration |
| Capacity | 207 MW operational bitcoin facility | 700 MW of HPC capacity under contract |
| Operating measure | Adjusted EBITDA loss of $48.2 million | Estimated $787 million mean annual NOI |
| Main period | Three months ended March 31 | From October 2026 to September 2036 |
NOI stands for net operating income. Projections for the future are based on the company’s own estimates and depend on successful construction and lease arrangements.
With a market capitalization of $7.17 billion on Wednesday, the numbers indicate a significant gap. Initial calculations estimate the equity value at close to 9.1 times the anticipated yearly NOI. The same valuation is also about 51 times the annualised revenue from the first quarter. Both ratios exclude debt, ongoing construction expenses, taxes, or project timelines.
Barber Lake and Black Pearl are both 300 MW projects. Cipher estimates base contract revenues of about $3.8 billion for Barber Lake and $5.5 billion for Black Pearl. Black Pearl is anchored by Amazon Web Services, a unit of Amazon.com Inc. NASDAQ:AMZN. At Barber Lake, Alphabet Inc. NASDAQ:GOOGL unit Google provides limited support for Fluidstack commitments.
The next corporate report is scheduled ahead of Tuesday’s market open.
| Date | Disclosed event | Main investor focus |
|---|---|---|
| August 4, before market | Q2 earnings | Mining income, losses, progress on construction |
| August 4, 08:00 EDT | Earnings call | Lease schedule, capital requirements, cash position |
| August 11 | Canaccord Growth Conference | Performance and funding |
| August 12 | Needham AI Infrastructure Conference | Tenant interest and development pipeline |
Risks: Cipher reported first-quarter interest expense of $59.2 million, which was higher than its revenue for the period. The company also completed an $810 million issuance of 6% secured Stingray notes in June. Additional risks include potential project delays, cost overruns, tenant concentration, or rising interest rates, any of which could further impact equity.
On Wednesday, Cipher was viewed as a play on construction and financing. The session on August 4 will indicate if project execution can distinguish it from that sector association.
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