Ambev Shares (BVMF:ABEV3; NYSE:ABEV) Under Pressure as Beer Recovery Lags 2024 Outlook

SAO PAULO, July 29, 2026, 20:05 BRT

Ambev ended Wednesday at R$15.90, slipping 1.2% on the day but gaining 1.9% over the past week.
Second-quarter revenue is preliminarily estimated at between R$20.4 billion and R$21.1 billion. EBITDA is projected to fall in the R$6.3 billion to R$6.6 billion range.
Brazilian beer volumes would still fall 1.6% short of the second quarter of 2024, even with 8% growth.

Ambev S.A. (BVMF:ABEV3; NYSE:ABEV) ended the session at R$15.90 ahead of a key earnings report focused on margins on Thursday. Initial estimates project Brazilian beer volume growth ranging from 5% to 8%. The upper end of this outlook would still leave volumes trailing those seen in the second quarter of 2024.

The subdued baseline brings focus to revenue per hectoliter and operating margin. Analysts project EBITDA between R$6.3 billion and R$6.6 billion. EBITDA represents earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization. Factors like pricing, premium segment contribution and expense management have gained importance.

The cash market in Brazil was not open at the dateline. U.S. regular trading had finished, but Ambev’s ADRs continued to trade in after-hours. Shares of ABEV3 dropped 1.2%, while the Ibovespa lost 1.5%.

Asset	Latest price or level	Wednesday move	Additional context
Ambev local shares	R$15.90	-1.24%	volume reached 37.84 million shares
Ambev ADR	$3.10	-1.12%	trading volume totaled 42.49 million shares
Ibovespa (INDEXBVMF:IBOV)	173,885.34	-1.52%	main stock index in Brazil

Local shares posted a 1.9% gain for the week, though they are still trading 6.5% under their yearly peak of R$17.00. Thursday’s results will be published before the Brazilian and U.S. markets start trading. The webcast is scheduled to begin at 12:30 p.m. Brasília time.

Consolidated estimates are closely grouped. For Brazil beer, banks’ assumptions vary by as much as three percentage points. Each bank uses its own profit measure, with all data still preliminary.

Forecaster	Net revenue, R$bn	EBITDA, R$bn	EBITDA margin	Net profit, R$bn	Brazil beer volume
XP Inc. NASDAQ:XP	21.10	6.60, estimated	31.3%	2.90	+5.0%
Bradesco BBI — Banco Bradesco S.A. BVMF:BBDC4	20.80	6.60	31.7%, estimated	3.00, adjusted	+8.0%
Itaú BBA — Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. BVMF:ITUB4	—	6.50	—	—	+8.0%
JPMorgan Chase & Co. NYSE:JPM	—	6.68	—	3.11	+7.0%

XP projects EBITDA of approximately R$6.60 billion and expects the adjusted margin to broaden by 0.64 percentage point. According to BBI estimates, the margin stands at 31.7%, which is about 1.1 points higher than the previous year’s 30.6%.

The strength appears due to the volume base. Ambev’s Brazil beer sales reached 20.04 million hectoliters in the same quarter last year, a decline of 8.9%. The scenarios below use current forecasts on this reported base.

Scenario	Year-on-year growth	Implied Q2 2026 volume, million hl	Gap versus Q2 2024
Q2 2024 actual	—	22.004	—
Q2 2025 actual	-8.9%	20.042	-8.9%
XP forecast	+5.0%	21.044	-4.4%
Banco BTG Pactual S.A. (BVMF:BPAC11) forecast	+6.7%	21.385	-2.8%
JPMorgan forecast	+7.0%	21.445	-2.5%
BBI and Itaú BBA forecasts	+8.0%	21.646	-1.6%

A 5% recovery would nevertheless result in a 4.4% deficit over two years. In the scenario of 8% growth, there would still be a 1.6% shortfall. As a result, the strength of growth is more important than the headline figure.

Bradesco BBI analysts Henrique Brustolin and Ricardo França stated that Ambev may achieve “another quarter of above-industry growth.” They attributed this to the company’s robust portfolio and strong operational efficiency. Money Times

BTG Pactual adopts a margin-first approach as well. The bank noted that investors could be concentrating too much on volumes. According to BTG Pactual, the latest surprises were driven by mix, pricing, and cost management.

Analysts maintain a cautious stance. According to Ambev’s July summary, there are four Buy ratings, 11 Neutral ratings, and three Sell ratings.

Recommendation	Number of firms	Share of 18 analysts
Buy	4	22%
Hold	11	61%
Sell	3	17%

The split aligns with previously released target prices. BBI keeps its Neutral rating with a R$15 target, while Itaú BBA is also Neutral, but with a R$17 target. BTG assigns a Buy recommendation to Ambev, setting its target at R$20. The current share price has already surpassed BBI’s target.

The bar climbed following the May report. Organic revenue for the first quarter advanced 8.1%, and normalized EBITDA was up 10.1%. Beer volumes in Brazil increased 1.2%. Shares of ABEV3 surged 15.3% after these figures.

Potential risks involve sluggish consumption, lower temperatures, and muted demand across Canada and Latin America South. Expenses tied to World Cup marketing might limit operating leverage. International softness could balance out gains from Brazil beer sales.

In the coming week, changes to estimates are likely to be more significant than a single volume report. Ambev continues to project 2026 Brazil beer cash-cost growth between 4.5% and 7.5%. A shift in this guidance may have a greater impact than a volume beat headline.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

Editorial insight

What is Ambev’s current trading location, and what is the level of momentum?

ABEV closed at $3.10 on July 29, slipping about 1.1%. The company’s market capitalization stood near $48.8 billion. Trading volume hit 42.5 million shares, above the 22.5 million share average. The ADR is still trading within its 52-week range of $2.10–$3.45. Shares are up around 26.6% for the year, but remain 10% under the peak. Google

How has Ambev’s stock compared to Brazil’s benchmark index?

The ADR is up approximately 26.6% for the year to date, while the Ibovespa index has posted a return near 8.9% over the same stretch. That reflects notable outperformance. Still, ABEV is traded in dollars, while the Ibovespa is denominated in reais, making the comparison less direct due to currency fluctuations. ABEV’s beta of 0.61 further reinforces its relatively defensive positioning in the market. Yahoo Finance

What can investors anticipate from the second-quarter report on July 30?

Ambev is set to release results before the B3 and NYSE sessions open on July 30. XP predicts revenue of R$21.1 billion with adjusted EBITDA around R$6.6 billion, indicating a margin of 31.3%, 64 basis points higher on the year. XP also forecasts net income at R$2.9 billion and a 5% rise in Brazil Beer volumes. In a separate forecast, Citi sees Brazil Beer volume up 5.8%. These projections carry uncertainty and do not constitute company guidance. Ambev

Did the first quarter results reflect a real improvement in operations?

Yes, in terms of operating metrics. Organic volume was stable, inching up 0.1%. Reported revenue edged down 0.1%, while organic revenue rose 8.1%. Normalized EBITDA grew 10.1% on an organic basis to R$7.56 billion. Margin improved to 33.6%, an organic increase of 60 basis points. Normalized profit gained only 0.3%, held back by net finance costs of R$1.06 billion. Operating cash flow surged 162.5% to R$3.16 billion. SEC

Will Brazil Beer sales maintain momentum following the World Cup?

Brazil Beer volume increased by 1.2% in the first quarter. Public Q2 projections point to growth in the 5%–7% range. Easier year-on-year comparisons and the World Cup are expected to support results. Portfolio mix is getting stronger. Premium segment volumes advanced in the low-twenties, and no-alcohol beer rose in the low-teens. However, event-linked demand tends to recede quickly. Volume and market share performance in the second half will offer a clearer indication. SEC

Is there now relief from cost pressures?

Costs are still the key variable. In the first quarter, Brazil Beer cash COGS per hectoliter climbed 14.6%. Even with a 9.6% rise in revenue, its EBITDA margin declined by 60 basis points. Management has retained a full-year cash COGS growth outlook of 4.5%–7.5%, suggesting a notable slowdown from Q1 levels. Should the second quarter margin come in below XP’s 31.3% projection, that easing assumption would be put to the test. SEC

Does ABEV remain appealingly priced at $3.10?

ABEV changes hands at $3.10, which equates to roughly 16 times its trailing earnings. Analyst opinions differ, influenced by varying sample sizes and reporting periods. MarketBeat lists a consensus estimate of $3.09 based on input from seven analysts, while Investing.com cites a $3.36 consensus from a group of ten. As a result, consensus expectations center in the $3.09–$3.36 range. If the company delivers strong Q2 performance, market focus could move to a $3.50–$4.00 target zone. Weaker-than-expected volume trends could send shares back to the $2.55–$2.90 range. Google

What is the strength of Ambev’s balance sheet and capacity for capital returns?

Ambev reported net cash of R$16.5 billion at the end of March. The company’s gross debt stood at about R$3.1 billion, with cash and current securities amounting to roughly R$19.6 billion. Ambev disbursed approximately R$1.2 billion in interest on capital on July 6 and has another R$700 million set for payment before the year concludes. The buyback programme permits repurchasing up to 208 million shares; as of March, 27.5 million shares had been bought back at a total cost of R$413 million. SEC

What risks could undermine the investment case?

The main immediate risk is a potential Q2 shortfall after a 26.6% stock increase. In Q1, volumes fell 2.0% in Canada and declined 0.5% in Latin America South. Shifts in foreign exchange and commodities may again put pressure on Brazil Beer margins. Net financial expenses came to R$1.06 billion for Q1. In April, tax authorities issued R$4.3 billion in assessments, which Ambev is contesting, so no final liability has been determined. The 14.25% Selic rate in Brazil also sustains the appeal of local fixed income. SEC

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Iwona Majkowska is a financial markets journalist at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, artificial intelligence and technology. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics, she previously worked in equity research and financial analysis before focusing on market reporting. Her daily coverage helps investors follow major developments across U.S. and global markets. Follow Iwona Majkowska on Google News.