ATLANTA, March 10, 2026, 15:31 EDT
Shares of Delta Air Lines edged lower Tuesday, dropping about 1% to $59.98 in afternoon trading. The move came as jet-fuel prices surged and carriers across Asia and Europe began hiking fares or tacking on fuel surcharges, reacting to the Middle East conflict disrupting both energy markets and air corridors.
This pressure is notable, given Delta entered 2026 with a confident outlook. Back in January, the airline projected earnings growth of roughly 20% for this year and anticipated March-quarter revenue to rise between 5% and 7%. Delta is also on the agenda to present at J.P. Morgan’s Industrials Conference in Washington on March 17.
The numbers lay it out: Delta faces an extra $40 million in yearly fuel costs for each penny uptick in jet fuel per gallon, a recent filing revealed. Fuel accounted for 17% of Delta’s operating expenses for 2025.
Delta stands out among U.S. carriers when it comes to fuel cover. Thanks to its Monroe refinery outside Philadelphia, the airline covers close to 200,000 barrels per day—about 75% of what it burns—taking the edge off refining markups. Still, Delta admits it can’t sidestep crude price volatility. And according to Reuters, major U.S. airlines have largely stepped away from broad fuel hedging—those contracts that lock in costs.
Pressure hit peer stocks as well. United Airlines slipped roughly 2.5%, and American Airlines dropped 1.4%. Southwest barely budged. Analysts speaking to Reuters noted that airlines catering to business travelers and premium cabins stand a better shot at pushing through fuel cost increases, compared to carriers that mostly serve budget-conscious vacationers.
Profit margins are looking less secure on Wall Street. Morgan Stanley’s Ravi Shanker noted that U.S. airlines remain unhedged and, if fuel stays elevated, they’ll just push the added costs to customers. TD Cowen’s Tom Fitzgerald doesn’t see room for wider margins this year unless energy prices fall sharply.
How much of a blow Delta can withstand comes down to its customer base. Back in January, CEO Ed Bastian pointed out that “the strength in the consumer sector is at the higher end of the curve.” According to Reuters, almost 60% of Delta’s revenue is now tied to premium offerings, loyalty programs, and non-ticket streams. Reuters
Delta isn’t out of the woods in the Middle East, either. According to its latest advisory, travel involving Tel Aviv could see disruptions through March 31. On March 3, the airline extended cancellations on its New York-JFK to Tel Aviv route through March 22, with return flights halted through March 23.
But the risk is plain: persistently expensive oil could push fares high enough to dampen demand, not just offset costs. Morningstar’s Lorraine Tan flagged that pricier tickets might weigh on leisure travel and could even have companies dialing down business trips—despite Delta starting out on firmer ground than certain competitors.
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