New York, June 16, 2026, 11:02 a.m. ET
- Dow held up as oil dropped and financials climbed.
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped with big tech shares losing steam.
- The next major catalysts are the Fed’s decision Wednesday, its dot plot, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference.
U.S. stocks showed a split late Tuesday morning. The Dow hit another record high, up 354.56 points, or 0.69%, at 52,025.59. But some investors sold out of Big Tech, sending the S&P 500 down 14.16 points, or 0.19%, to 7,540.13. The Nasdaq Composite lost 109.15 points, or 0.41%, to 26,574.79. Losses were sharper in the Nasdaq 100, which dropped 0.91% as traders pulled back from the biggest growth and tech names.
Drop in energy prices and some optimism over a tentative U.S.-Iran deal supported stocks today. Brent hovered near $80 after a steep slide, and WTI lost more than 4%. That took some pressure off inflation, which has been a concern for equities lately. Cheaper oil means lower costs for consumers and businesses, and may make the Fed think twice about more rate hikes. Financials were out front earlier in the session, but energy names slipped as oil sank.
Nasdaq’s pullback is in focus as this year’s gains have leaned on AI and big tech stocks. Nvidia, Microsoft and Salesforce traded lower late in the morning, but Amazon and Apple ticked up, so the market looked mixed instead of bullish. Reuters said the S&P 500 tech group slipped after Monday’s rally. Still, memory chip stocks like Western Digital and Seagate moved up.
Fed Meeting on Deck; Markets Eye Dot Plot and Chair Warsh’s DebutThe next key event for markets is the Federal Reserve’s June 16–17 policy meeting. The meeting comes with a Summary of Economic Projections, or “dot plot,” that spells out where policymakers see rates going. Markets are betting the Fed leaves its benchmark federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Traders are focused on whether Fed officials shift their tone on inflation after recent jumps in energy prices. A 25-basis-point move equals 0.25 percentage point. “All eyes are on Warsh’s press conference,” said Thomas Hayes of Great Hill Capital, pointing to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first briefing after taking the job. Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Reuters
Oil prices are down, geopolitical worries have faded for now, corporate profit forecasts are getting better, and Wells Fargo bumped up its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,950. The bank said it sees stronger earnings and improving investor sentiment behind the move. Still, stocks don’t look cheap. The S&P 500 is trading close to its record, and Wells Fargo’s target is only about 5.2% above where the index closed Monday. Wells Fargo is forecasting $340 in S&P 500 earnings per share for 2026, putting the index at about 22 times expected earnings. That valuation might work if AI spending, profit margins and earnings growth keep up, but there’s less room for error if inflation stays high or the Fed gets more hawkish.
The U.S. market isn’t cheap here, with valuations ranging from fair to a bit on the risky side. Cyclicals tied to the Dow and bank stocks are seeing some help from cheaper oil and investors warming to risk. Tech-focused indexes are still feeling pressure on valuations and questions about Fed rates. The next signals for investors land Wednesday, with the Fed decision and the May advance retail sales numbers at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to the Census Bureau’s schedule.
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