Embraer (NYSE:EMBJ) gains 5.7% after tax and tariff relief account for 96% of EBIT forecast increase
10 August 2026

Embraer (NYSE:EMBJ) gains 5.7% after tax and tariff relief account for 96% of EBIT forecast increase

NEW YORK, August 10, 2026, 11:31 EDT — U.S. equity markets operated as scheduled.

  • Embraer S.A. climbed 5.7% to $77.17 following record revenue in the second quarter.
  • Adjusted EBIT totaled $296.9 million, yielding a margin of 13.3%.
  • Embraer increased its forecast for the 2026 adjusted EBIT margin to between 10.0% and 10.6%.
  • Approximately $106 million of the nearly $110 million guidance increase came from tax and tariff relief.

Embraer American depositary shares climbed 5.7% to $77.17 as of 11:15 EDT on Monday, following record revenue and an increase in profit and cash-flow outlook. The stock moved within a range of $73.80 to $79.90.

Stock chart for NYSE:EMBJ

The guidance bridge offers a clearer indication for investors. Embraer increased the midpoint of its projected 2026 adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) by approximately $110 million.

A $68 million tax credit together with $38 million in direct U.S. tariff exemption benefits make up $106 million, representing 96.4% of the growth. Just $4 million, or 3.6%, was attributed to a stronger business outlook.

Implied 2026 adjusted EBIT bridgeBenefitMargin effectShare of increase
One-off tax credit$68 million80 basis points61.8%
U.S. tariff exemption (direct)$38 million45 basis points34.5%
Stronger business outlook$4 million5 basis points3.6%
TotalAbout $110 million130 basis points100%

The exceptional support did not overshadow a solid operational quarter. Revenue climbed 23% to reach a second-quarter high of $2.235 billion. Adjusted EBIT was up 55%, totaling $296.9 million.

The adjusted EBIT margin was reported at 13.3%, factoring in the tax credit and $8 million in U.S. tariffs paid for the quarter. Embraer said the margin was 10.6% when excluding both items, above the 10.5% margin posted in the same period last year.

Q2 financial metricQ2 2026Q2 2025Year-on-year change
Revenue$2,235.3 million$1,819.2 million+23%
Adjusted EBITDA$355.6 million$245.5 million+45%
Adjusted EBIT$296.9 million$191.8 million+55%
Adjusted EBIT margin13.3%10.5%+280 basis points
Adjusted net income$218.6 million$158.0 million+38%
Basic earnings per ADS$1.1880$0.4283+177%
Adjusted free cash flow excluding Eve Holding (NYSE:EVEX)$401.0 million-$161.6 million+$562.6 million swing

Adjusted net income increased by 38% to $218.6 million. Basic earnings per ADS nearly tripled. Adjusted free cash flow, not including Eve, totaled $401 million.

Understanding cash conversion requires context. Embraer stated that prepayments from customers and a tax credit contributed to its free cash flow. The company reported a $299.7 million increase in contract liabilities over the quarter, primarily within its Defense & Security segment.

All main business divisions posted higher sales. Executive Aviation generated the top revenue and margin, while Defense & Security achieved the quickest revenue increase.

Business unitQ2 2026 revenueYear-on-year growthQ2 2026 adjusted EBIT marginQ2 2025 margin
Commercial Aviation$625 million+8%2.9%4.3%
Executive Aviation$725 million+32%23.4%14.5%
Defense & Security$304 million+38%11.9%9.2%
Services & Support$565 million+24%18.7%15.5%

Executive Aviation posted an adjusted EBIT margin of 23.4%, factoring in a $60 million tax credit. Without the tax and tariff impacts, the margin was 16.1%. Services & Support accounted for the other $8 million tax benefit.

Commercial Aviation was again the lagging segment. Its adjusted EBIT margin dropped to 2.9%, down from 4.3%. Embraer cited customer mix in legacy agreements as the source of the pressure.

The backlog hit an all-time high of $34.5 billion, marking a 16% increase year-on-year. Embraer handed over 65 aircraft, consisting of 20 commercial jets and 45 executive jets. Total deliveries climbed 7% from 61 aircraft.

“We expect that in 2027 we’ll see a much better performance in terms of production leveling,” Chief Executive Francisco Gomes Neto said during the earnings call. According to him, achieving more consistent production is set to raise both productivity and efficiency on the line. Reuters

Embraer maintained its aircraft delivery and revenue forecasts. The company increased its adjusted EBIT margin outlook by 130 basis points at the midpoint. The firm also doubled its minimum free-cash-flow target.

2026 guidanceUpdatedPreviousChange
Commercial Aviation deliveries80-85 aircraft80-85 aircraftNo change
Executive Aviation deliveries160-170 aircraft160-170 aircraftNo change
Consolidated revenue$8.2-$8.5 billion$8.2-$8.5 billionNo change
Adjusted EBIT margin10.0%-10.6%8.7%-9.3%Midpoint up 130 basis points
Adjusted free cash flow excluding Eve$400 million or more$200 million or moreMinimum goal now twice as high

Prior to the results, analyst coverage was upbeat. According to Embraer’s investor-relations page, 94% of recommendations were Buy, 6% were Neutral, and there were no Sell ratings. The average target price, rounded to $81, represented a premium of roughly 5.0% to the intraday share price.

InstitutionAnalystRecommendationEMBJ targetLatest listed update
Bank of America Merrill LynchRonald EpsteinBuy$80February 11, 2026
Goldman SachsNoah PoponakBuy$82May 8, 2026
J.P. MorganMarcelo MottaBuy$80May 8, 2026
Morgan StanleyKristine LiwagBuy$90March 9, 2026
ScotiabankJorge GabrichBuy$81June 8, 2026
UBSAlberto ValerioNeutral$65March 26, 2026

The targets were set before the August 10 results. The present share price is higher than UBS’s target but remains beneath the other five targets listed. Upcoming updates will indicate if analysts value the operating improvements or focus on the impact from tax credits and tariff relief.

Risks: The majority of the implied EBIT increase is driven by tax and tariff easing. Embraer continues to anticipate approximately $12 million annually in indirect U.S. tariffs. Margins in Commercial Aviation stay limited, and any setbacks in production or an unfavorable product mix could put the existing delivery targets at risk.

The next assessment will be if steady production allows underlying adjusted EBIT margins to remain close to 10.6% once the tax credit is removed.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

What caused Embraer shares to climb following second-quarter earnings?
Revenue climbed 23% to reach a record $2.235 billion for the second quarter. Adjusted EBIT jumped 55% to $296.9 million. Embraer lifted its 2026 adjusted EBIT margin outlook and set a new minimum free-cash-flow target, doubling the previous level.
What portion of the raised EBIT outlook was driven by improved operational performance?
Of the approximately $110 million increase at the midpoint, just $4 million stemmed from a better business forecast. The remaining $106 million—making up 96.4%—was the result of a $68 million tax credit and $38 million in direct U.S. tariff relief.
Did Embraer maintain a solid underlying margin?
Yes. Adjusted EBIT margin reached 13.3% on a reported basis, and stood at 10.6% when excluding tax and tariff impacts. The adjusted margin was marginally higher than the 10.5% posted in the prior year.
What does the backlog indicate about demand?
The company's order backlog hit an all-time high of $34.5 billion, marking a 16% increase from a year earlier. Embraer handed over 65 aircraft during the quarter, while maintaining its previously stated full-year guidance for commercial and executive jet deliveries.
What is currently the primary risk facing Embraer investors?
A sustainable rerating relies on consistent operational performance instead of one-time assistance. Commercial Aviation reported an adjusted EBIT margin decline to 2.9%. Ongoing production delays, an unfavorable customer mix, or a shift in cash flow previously boosted by prepayments may undermine the strength of the upgraded guidance.
Iwona Majkowska

Iwona Majkowska is a financial markets journalist at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, artificial intelligence and technology. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics, she previously worked in equity research and financial analysis before focusing on market reporting. Her daily coverage helps investors follow major developments across U.S. and global markets. Follow Iwona Majkowska on Google News.

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