DETROIT, July 30, 2026, 08:00 EDT — U.S. premarket
- Ford stock was up 0.5% at $15.36 ahead of Thursday’s market open. On Wednesday, shares advanced 2.14% while the S&P 500 declined 1.52%.
- Adjusted EBIT for the second quarter reached $2.5 billion. Adjusted earnings came in at 42 cents, surpassing analysts’ consensus of 35 cents.
- The midpoint of Ford’s guidance indicates $6.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow for the second half, representing 97% of the full-year midpoint.
Ford stock continued to climb in premarket trade on Thursday, reaching $15.36 as of 7:49 a.m. EDT. The shares rose 2.14% on Wednesday, bucking declines across both the broader market and the auto sector.
The earnings outperformance was evident. The greater challenge lies in generating cash.
Ford generated just $0.2 billion in adjusted free cash flow in the first half. The company’s revised forecast calls for $6 billion to $7 billion in 2026. That means the second half needs to contribute $6.3 billion at the midpoint.
The numbers shown below are derived from Ford’s disclosed first-half performance and the midpoints of its guidance. These are calculated values, not independent company projections.
| Ford’s second-half challenge | First-half performance | 2026 midpoint | Expected second half | Second half vs first half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted free cash flow | $0.2 bln | $6.5 bln | $6.3 bln | 97% of projected annual midpoint |
| Adjusted EBIT | $6.0 bln | $10.5 bln | $4.5 bln | Down 25% |
| Ford Blue EBIT | $3.08 bln | $5.25 bln | $2.17 bln | Falls 29% |
| Ford Pro EBIT | $3.40 bln | $7.25 bln | $3.85 bln | Rises 13% |
| Ford Model e EBIT | $(1.70) bln | $(4.0) bln | $(2.30) bln | Loss widens by 36% |
This puts cash conversion at the forefront for investors. The bulk of yearly cash flow is expected to materialise post-June.
Profit is less concentrated in the latter part of the year. Ford requires $4.5 billion in adjusted EBIT for the second half at the midpoint of its guidance. This figure is 25% lower than what it reported for the first half.
Second-quarter data revealed higher earnings even as production decreased. Revenue fell by 4%, and wholesale volume was down 12%. Adjusted EBIT, however, rose by $400 million.
| Ford Q2 performance summary | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $48.3 bln | $50.2 bln | -4% |
| Wholesale vehicle sales | 1.039 mln | 1.185 mln | -12% |
| Adjusted EBIT | $2.5 bln | $2.1 bln | +$0.4 bln |
| Adjusted EBIT margin | 5.2% | 4.3% | +0.9 points |
| Adjusted free cash flow | $2.1 bln | $2.8 bln | -$0.7 bln |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.42 | $0.37 | +$0.05 |
Improved pricing and a shift in vehicle mix contributed to the rise. “The increase is really simple. That’s mix and pricing,” Chief Financial Officer Sherry House told analysts.
Sales were buoyed by more expensive trucks and off-road vehicles. Off-road models made up around a quarter of Ford’s U.S. sales for the second quarter. Ford Blue posted a 72% increase in EBIT, even though wholesales declined by 8%.
Ford Pro continues to be the primary variable for the second half. The company anticipates a rebound in both delayed Super Duty orders and F-Series output. Ford Pro’s projected second-half EBIT increases to about $3.85 billion.
The data for the segment highlight why trucks continue to be more significant than electric vehicles. Model e reduced its cash loss; however, its margin stayed sharply negative.
| Ford segment comparison | Q2 revenue | Q2 EBIT | EBIT margin | Year-on-year EBIT change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ford Blue | $26.1 bln | $1.14 bln | 4.4% | up $474 mln |
| Ford Pro | $17.8 bln | $1.72 bln | 9.7% | down $600 mln |
| Ford Model e | $1.0 bln | $(919) mln | -89.6% | loss reduced by $410 mln |
| Ford Credit | — | $757 mln EBT | — | up $112 mln |
Ford projects that Model e will post a loss of approximately $4 billion this year, an amount representing 32% of the midpoint guidance totals for both Ford Blue and Ford Pro. The updated forecast reflects changes in trucks, pricing and costs, rather than a reversal in the electric-vehicle segment.
General Motors NYSE:GM maintains its lead for profitability among Detroit automakers. Stellantis NYSE:STLA, by comparison, posted a significantly lower 1.8% margin on Thursday. Although there are differences in reporting standards and currencies, the comparison remains relevant.
| Selected automaker comparison | Q2 revenue | Adjusted operating profit | Adjusted margin | 2026 outlook | Latest action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ford | $48.3 bln | $2.5 bln | 5.2% | $10–$11 bln EBIT | Raised midpoint by $1.0 bln |
| General Motors | $48.0 bln | $3.94 bln | 8.2% | $14–$16 bln EBIT | Lifted midpoint by $0.5 bln |
| Stellantis | €43.48 bln | €773 mln | 1.8% | Expected low-single-digit margin | Outlook unchanged |
GM’s adjusted margin was three percentage points higher than Ford’s. While Ford’s progress bolsters the case for a stronger valuation, a clear execution gap persists.
Citigroup NYSE:C analysts, with Michael Ward at the helm, have upgraded Ford to Buy. “We believe momentum is turning,” they said. The firm also increased its price target for the automaker to $20 from the previous $19. MarketWatch
The market’s response was not primarily driven by the net loss of $1.3 billion. That figure factored in $4.2 billion in pretax special charges, largely linked to Ford’s previous battery project with SK On. Of the $3.6 billion disposal charge, most was a non-cash expense.
Risks continue to be focused in the second half. Ford anticipates around $1.5 billion in commodity headwinds in that timeframe. The company is also dealing with approximately $700 million in extra costs linked to Novelis and increased spending on Ford Energy, its universal EV platform, as well as the Oakville launch.
Cash is the next key indicator. A recovery in truck manufacturing can support profits, but posting $6.3 billion in projected free cash flow for the second half would indicate those profits are reflected on Ford’s balance sheet.
