NEW YORK, July 19, 2026, 17:08 EDT
Intel’s stock has climbed over 160% so far this year ahead of Thursday’s earnings. Despite higher sales, the company’s outlook continues to indicate slower profit growth. U.S. cash markets did not open on Sunday.
Intel shares finished Friday at $95.04, falling 2.0%. Chip stocks ended their worst week in over a year.
The PHLX Semiconductor Index (INDEXNASDAQ:SOX) is still up close to 65% for the year. The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) has gained roughly 9%. Intel’s premium sets a higher standard ahead of Thursday.
Early estimates based on Intel’s stated first-quarter figures and the midpoint of its second-quarter outlook indicate sales are rising, but profits are not rising at the same pace.
| Investor test | Q1 2026 reported | Q2 outlook or comparator | Preliminary calculation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.577 billion | $14.300 billion midpoint | Quarterly rise of 5.3% |
| Non-GAAP gross margin | 41.0% | 39.0% | Down 2.0 percentage points |
| Non-GAAP diluted EPS | $0.29 | $0.20 | Drop of 31.0% |
| Foundry burden | $2.437 billion operating loss | $4.058 billion Intel Products operating income | Loss is 60.1% |
Revenue is increasing, while margins and earnings are declining. Sales growth has not yet translated into improved operating leverage.
Intel Foundry’s loss in the first quarter grew by about 5% compared to a year ago, while revenue rose 16% in the same timeframe.
The segment revenues reflect internal sales among Intel units and do not solely represent external foundry demand.
Strong demand in other areas boosted results. Data Center and AI revenue climbed 22% to $5.1 billion, while overall Intel Products revenue rose 9%.
Intel’s Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner described “unprecedented demand for silicon” in April. Zinsner said the company was optimizing its factory network to increase supply. Intel
Investor sentiment has grown less tolerant. The SOX finished Friday down 20.2% from its record high on June 22, slipping into a bear market.
“It’s like the market has chip fatigue,” said Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick. Chip stocks have declined in three of the last four weeks. Reuters
Technical advances provide a boost. ASML Holding NASDAQ:ASML reported that Intel is delivering select Panther Lake processors produced using High-NA EUV technology on Intel 18A. Yields on select layers were consistent with those achieved on ASML’s established NXE platform.
The cost of boosting manufacturing continues to be high. Intel revealed a €5 billion expansion in Ireland last week, with most of the investment scheduled before the end of 2027. The project accounts for roughly 30% of its anticipated $17 billion capital expenditure for 2026.
Intel will release results after Thursday’s close. Investors are focused on adjusted gross margin, foundry losses, and updates on 18A production. A revenue beat by itself may not be enough to maintain the rally.
Risks: Improved server portfolio or increased factory utilization may accelerate profit above guidance. Weaker PC demand, increased expenditure, or slower-than-anticipated external foundry momentum could weigh on the stock.
Markets resume trading on Monday. Intel’s July 23 earnings will indicate if its projected 2026 growth is based on present profits or upcoming factory cost structure.
