CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts, August 25, 2026, 11:35 EDT
- Moderna shares rose 12.2% to $155.81 by 11:25 EDT.
- Volume reached 23.8 million shares, 1.8 times its three-month daily average.
- Wolfe Research upgraded Moderna and estimated $9.2 billion of unadjusted peak intismeran sales.
Moderna NASDAQ:MRNA shares jumped 12.2% on Tuesday after Wolfe Research abandoned its bearish rating. The move extended a volatile repricing of the vaccine maker’s cancer pipeline.
The stock traded at $155.81 by 11:25 EDT, up $16.91. Volume reached 23.8 million shares, already 1.8 times the three-month daily average. Moderna’s market value stood near $62.2 billion.
The investor question has shifted. Traders are no longer debating whether intismeran works in melanoma. They are pricing how far the platform can travel across tumors.
Wolfe upgraded Moderna to Peer Perform from Underperform on Tuesday. It cited a clearer approval path for intismeran in adjuvant melanoma. The firm estimated $9.2 billion of unadjusted peak sales across four indications.
That sales figure equals about 15% of Moderna’s current equity value. It is not a forecast of annual profit. Development odds, launch timing, pricing and Merck’s economics still separate peak sales from shareholder value.
| Firm | Latest view | Target | Date | Gap to $155.81 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform, upgraded | Not stated | Aug. 25 | — |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | $125 | Aug. 24 | -19.8% |
| UBS | Neutral | $150 | Aug. 20 | -3.7% |
| JPMorgan | Underweight | $77 | Aug. 21 | -50.6% |
| Consensus | Hold | $95.67 average | Aug. 25 snapshot | -38.6% |
The table shows the valuation tension. Even after large target increases, most published targets trail the market price. Tuesday’s advance therefore reflects rising probabilities more than a settled earnings model.
The trigger remains last week’s Phase 3 INTerpath-001 result. Moderna and Merck NYSE:MRK said intismeran plus Keytruda delayed melanoma recurrence or spread versus Keytruda alone. The companies have not yet released the detailed efficacy numbers.
Tuesday’s trading was not merely a biotech rebound. Moderna gained 12.2%, while BioNTech NASDAQ:BNTX rose about 2.9%. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (NYSEARCA:XBI) added roughly 3.1% by 11:25 EDT.
The rally also dwarfs Moderna’s present business. Second-quarter revenue was $145 million, while the net loss reached $782 million. Cash and investments totaled $6.9 billion at June 30.
Management expects up to 10% revenue growth in 2026. It projects year-end cash and investments of $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion. The oncology program must eventually support that spending base.
Risks: Full Phase 3 data remain undisclosed, approval is not guaranteed and personalized manufacturing may constrain margins. A reversal in short covering could also magnify losses.
For now, Wolfe’s upgrade gives the market a new valuation marker. The next durable move depends on clinical detail, regulatory timing and Moderna’s share of the economics.
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