New York, January 14, 2026, 05:03 (ET) — Premarket
- MRNA slipped roughly 1% premarket following a 17% surge in the previous session
- The company’s recent update showed 2025 revenue estimates climbing, with costs coming in below earlier projections
- Next up: results on February 13 and a series of vaccine approvals and trial updates set for 2026
Moderna shares fell roughly 1% in early trading Wednesday, following a strong jump the previous session. The stock stood at $39.20, down 40 cents from Tuesday’s close of $39.60.
This move is crucial as Moderna struggles to reassure investors it can establish steady footing now that demand for COVID shots has dropped. The market has shown little tolerance for vaccine makers missing their own demand forecasts, even slightly.
This week’s price volatility raises the stakes on upcoming numbers and timelines. Traders are watching closely to confirm if cost cuts hold up and if new respiratory products can hit the market quickly enough to close the revenue shortfall.
Moderna now forecasts roughly $1.9 billion in revenue for 2025 (unaudited), hitting the upper end of its previous guidance. It also trimmed its 2025 GAAP operating-expense outlook by $200 million, narrowing the range to $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion. GAAP refers to the standard U.S. accounting rules. The company boosted its expected year-end cash balance to about $8.1 billion and confirmed a goal of up to 10% revenue growth in 2026. CEO Stéphane Bancel added that Moderna slashed annual operating expenses by around $2 billion in 2025.
Moderna’s CFO James Mock told Reuters that U.S. retail vaccination rates dropped about 26% year on year in 2025—less steep than expected—which provided a boost to sales. “If we hit $1.9 billion for 2025, up to 10% would put us at $2.1 billion, though we’re not officially guiding that right now,” Mock said. Reuters
Moderna’s positive update comes amid a market where demand shifts sharply with timing, strain types, and pricing. A single strong season doesn’t guarantee a lasting franchise.
Moderna outlined a busy 2026 in an SEC filing. It expects potential approvals next year for its seasonal flu vaccine candidate, mRNA-1010. The company also flagged possible approvals in Europe, Japan, and Taiwan for its newer COVID shot, mNEXSPIKE. Meanwhile, its flu/COVID combo candidate, mRNA-1083, is under review in Europe, though Moderna is waiting on U.S. FDA guidance before refiling. The company scheduled its Q4 and full-year earnings for February 13 and penciled in an Analyst Day on November 12.
Moderna now goes head-to-head with larger vaccine makers, and the rivalry extends beyond COVID. Pfizer and BioNTech remain frontrunners in some segments, even as the RSV and combination vaccine markets turn into tight, price-driven battlegrounds.
But risks remain. Regulators might delay timelines, and late-stage trial results can fall short. Moderna’s own filing points out it’s waiting on FDA guidance for a refiling of the combo shot — which is far from trivial.
Following Tuesday’s rally, all eyes will be on whether the stock can maintain its gains when regular trading kicks off. The next major event to watch is Moderna’s earnings report on Feb. 13, where management is expected to provide updates on 2026 demand, spending plans, and the timing of the first approvals anticipated this year.
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