NEW YORK, Feb 2, 2026, 17:41 EST — After-hours
- Natural gas futures dropped as mid-February forecasts grew warmer and U.S. supply rebounded rapidly
- The leading U.S. natural gas ETF dipped in late trading, pulling gas producers down with it
- Focus now turns to Thursday’s storage report and fresh weather model updates.
U.S. natural gas prices plunged the most in a single day since 1995 on Monday, after forecasts for mid-February suddenly shifted warmer and supply bounced back quicker than expected. The front-month March Henry Hub contract closed down 25.7%, landing at $3.237 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Commodity Weather Group slashed its heating degree day forecast by 26.3, signaling less demand for heating as temperatures rise. Output climbed to 111.6 billion cubic feet per day. Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics Group noted the supply rebound was “a far faster recovery than historic freeze-offs”—when ice clogs wells and pipelines. Meanwhile, Kpler reported that trend-following funds have taken an 18% net-short stance, betting prices will keep falling. EnergyNow
This shift is crucial now since the market has been pricing in weather first, with everything else trailing. Prices surged to multi-year highs in late January amid cold snaps and supply disruptions in the U.S., only to reverse sharply when forecasts eased.
Shares tied to gas dropped alongside the commodity in after-hours trading. EQT Corp slipped around 5.2%, while Antero Resources took a sharper hit, losing about 7.6%.
Storage has tightened, but the latest data looks backward. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported working gas in storage at 2,823 billion cubic feet for the week ending Jan. 23, marking a 242 bcf draw. That leaves stocks 143 bcf above the five-year average yet 90 bcf below the same week last year.
LNG flows remain a key wildcard. January highlighted how quickly cold snaps can jam export operations. Exports slipped to 11.3 million metric tonnes, down from December’s record 11.5 million. Feedgas into U.S. LNG plants hit a one-year low on Jan. 26 when a freeze forced shutdowns or curtailments, including at Freeport LNG in Texas. Meanwhile, Kinder Morgan’s Elba Island LNG facility in Georgia turned to imports from Trinidad and Tobago, Reuters reported, citing preliminary LSEG data.
Beyond gas, the wider energy sector dipped following Donald Trump’s comment that Iran was “seriously talking” with Washington. The remarks eased tensions with the OPEC nation, sending oil futures down by over $3 a barrel, Reuters reported. Reuters
Gas has a way of bouncing back quickly. One model run can flip the forecasts, and a sudden cold snap or new freeze-offs can tighten supply, pushing shorts to scramble for cover fast.
Traders are eyeing the upcoming storage update for a reality check. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly Natural Gas Storage Report is scheduled for 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, Feb. 5.
Investors will also keep an eye on mid-February temperature revisions and daily production figures. Another key factor is whether LNG feedgas demand returns to normal levels following the weather disruptions in January.
