New York, January 14, 2026, 21:33 (EST) — Market closed.
- Rivian shares ended the day 7.2% lower at $17.50, following UBS’s downgrade to Sell, even as the bank raised its price target to $15
- UBS cautioned that hopes linked to Rivian’s push into autonomy and the launch of the R2 might be outpacing the near-term evidence.
- Investors are now eyeing the Feb. 12 earnings report for updates on the R2 ramp and cash burn
Rivian Automotive (RIVN.O) shares dropped 7.2% to $17.50 on Wednesday following a downgrade from UBS, which cut the EV maker to Sell from Neutral. Despite raising its price target to $15, UBS warned the stock remains “prone to sentiment swings.” TipRanks
With U.S. markets closed, the downgrade hits as a reality check for a stock driven more by hype — autonomy, software, a cheaper model — than by new information.
The market’s focus now is on whether Rivian’s next move will come from strong deliveries and improved margins, or if it will be fueled again by hype around its driver-assistance plans. It’s a fine line, especially when sentiment turns cautious.
UBS now sees “point-to-point” self-driving—basically, a car that can get you from A to B without intervention—delayed until late 2026. “Eyes-off” features, where drivers don’t have to watch the road constantly, are pushed back to 2027. The bank’s forecast for Rivian’s 2026 R2 deliveries came in at about 10,600, shy of the 13,600 consensus. Their $15 price target is based on a 2.5x enterprise-value-to-sales multiple on 2027 sales estimates. UBS also flagged rising costs tied to DRAM chips and lithium, plus tougher market headwinds from the loss of EV tax credits and evolving regulations. They cautioned that enthusiasm around licensing Rivian’s tech could fade, especially after Nvidia launched an open-source autonomy platform and Ford announced its own Level 3 system. Investing.com
UBS’s downgrade adds to a mixed bag of recent Street calls. Wolfe Research cut Rivian to “Underperform” on Jan. 12. Yet, some firms have nudged up price targets in the last few weeks, even while staying cautious on ratings. GuruFocus
Rivian is pushing to expand demand beyond its high-end models. The automaker delivered 42,247 vehicles in 2025, marking an 18% drop from the previous year. Investors are focused on the upcoming smaller, more affordable R2 SUV, expected in the first half of 2026. Rivian plans to release its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings on Feb. 12 after the market closes.
Shares of Tesla (TSLA.O) dropped 1.8%, with Lucid (LCID.O) slipping roughly 0.9%, adding strain to the more volatile segment of the EV market.
The narrative could turn fast. Should Rivian nail a clearer schedule for R2 production and demonstrate it can sell software without hurting demand, the bearish outlook may rest on delays that never materialize.
Rivian has been focusing on expanding its commercial operations. The company appointed Greg Revelle as chief customer officer, tasking him with leading go-to-market strategies ahead of the R2 launch. CEO RJ Scaringe commented, “We are excited that Greg is bringing his deep experience across eCommerce, marketing and automotive to Rivian.” wardsauto.com
Feb. 12 is the next key date. Investors will be looking for updates on the R2 timeline, cost reductions, and any shifts in the autonomy roadmap. They’ll also be watching to see if Wednesday’s downgrade sparks a wider rethink of how the market values Rivian’s software goals.
