NEW YORK, July 29, 2026, 05:57 EDT – SoFi Technologies Inc (SOFI.O) is approaching its second-quarter earnings release with a key test for its profit margins in the second half, aiming to meet a 38% threshold as investors monitor closely.
- SoFi gained 0.5% before the market opened, following a $16.74 close on Tuesday.
- Zacks projects revenue of $1.11 billion and per-share earnings of $0.11.
- Initial guidance calculations indicate an adjusted EBITDA margin of 37.7% for the second half.
SoFi Technologies NASDAQ:SOFI saw modest gains in premarket trading on Wednesday. The stock was quoted around $16.83 at 5:54 a.m. EDT.
The broader assessment aligns with its full-year outlook. Present forecasts indicate a 37.7% adjusted EBITDA margin for the second half, based on initial figures. EBITDA does not include interest, taxes, depreciation or amortization.
That figure is nearly eight percentage points higher than the target for the second quarter. As a result, the forward outlook could be more significant than a minor headline beat.
SoFi is scheduled to release its second-quarter earnings at approximately 7 a.m. EDT, with a conference call set to start an hour after. U.S. regular trading is still shut.
The Zacks consensus estimate stands at $1.11 billion in revenue with earnings of $0.11 per share. Company management earlier forecast around 30% growth in adjusted revenue and an EBITDA margin of 30%.
Initial estimate: the Q2 column reflects management’s stated targets for growth and margin applied to reported outcomes. The second-half column aligns these numbers with the full-year outlook.
| Metric | Q1 performance | Q2 projected | Second-half needed, initial |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted net revenue | $1.087 billion | $1.116 billion | $2.452 billion combined |
| Average quarterly revenue | $1.087 billion | $1.116 billion | $1.226 billion |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $339.9 million | $334.7 million | $925.4 million combined |
| Average quarterly EBITDA | $339.9 million | $334.7 million | $462.7 million |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 31.3% | Roughly 30.0% | Roughly 37.7% |
Based on this, the second half is required to deliver 57.8% of full-year EBITDA, while contributing just 52.7% of total annual revenue. This discrepancy places margin discussion at the forefront.
The stock faced pressure ahead of earnings. It closed on Tuesday 5.1% lower than its July 21 price of $17.64.
The scenario is reminiscent of April. Shares of SoFi dropped 12%, even after posting record results for the first quarter, as the guidance was left the same. Analyst Andrew Jeffrey at William Blair noted that management “did not flow through first-quarter revenue and EBITDA upside.” Reuters
The quarter saw robust performance, with adjusted revenue climbing 41% and adjusted EBITDA up 62%. Loan originations surged 68% to $12.2 billion, while membership expanded by 35% to reach 14.7 million.
The business mix continued to show variation. Adjusted revenue from Lending increased by 53%, while Financial Services revenue advanced 41%. Revenue from the Technology Platform declined 27% following the loss of a significant client. Contribution margin decreased to 16% from 30%.
Funding offers the most straightforward backing for improved margins. In the first quarter, deposits made up over 90% of average liabilities. SoFi reported that deposits were 155 basis points cheaper than warehouse funding, equating to roughly $622 million in annualized interest savings.
Anthony Noto, Chief Executive, said to Reuters that “the health of our consumer base remains strong.” He added he anticipates solid demand for loans in the second quarter and noted that credit performance was in line with forecasts. Reuters
SoFi announced a fresh brand investment on Tuesday, unveiling its partnership with Notre Dame Athletics. The deal features a $1.4 million yearly student-athlete fund. The statement did not disclose the overall value of the larger agreement.
Throughout the week, investors are set to examine guidance, credit conditions and platform revenue. The Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday provides another catalyst linked to interest rates.
Risks include increased charge-offs, sluggish loan sales, escalating deposit expenses or ongoing contractions in the platform, all of which could impede margin expansion. Sustained elevated rates may further limit demand for refinancing.
A slight Q2 outperformance might not resolve the argument. Investors require a convincing strategy to achieve the second-half margin that is already reflected in current guidance.
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