SoFi Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOFI) is starting the week with investors weighing two competing narratives: a fintech-turned-bank that’s delivered record growth and raised guidance in 2025, and a stock that’s now digesting fresh dilution after another large equity raise. As of Monday, December 15, 2025, SoFi shares were trading around $26.46, down roughly 3% on the session, after opening near $27 and sliding to an intraday low around $26.29.
What’s different about this moment is the mix of “platform story” tailwinds—new products, crypto expansion, and fee-based growth—colliding with more traditional public-market gravity: valuation scrutiny and the share-count math that comes with a multi-billion-dollar stock offering.
Below is a complete roundup of the most relevant news, forecasts, and analyses circulating as of December 15, 2025, and what they suggest for SOFI stock into early 2026.
What’s driving SOFI stock on December 15, 2025
1) SoFi’s new Smart Card is getting headlines today
A fresh SoFi consumer product is back in the spotlight today: multiple industry outlets are recirculating details about the company’s SoFi Smart Card, positioned as an “all-in-one account” product aimed at blending debit-style spending control with credit-style benefits and rewards. [1]
SoFi announced on December 10 that Smart Card users can earn unlimited 5% cash back at grocery stores and up to 4.30% APY on savings balances (for a limited time), with a dynamic credit limit tied to checking/savings balances, credit-bureau reporting for payment history, and Mastercard protections. [2]
Why it matters for the stock: the Smart Card fits directly into SoFi’s long-running strategy—get more “primary bank” behavior (deposits, spending, and recurring engagement) and then cross-sell higher-margin products across lending, investing, and financial services.
2) Profit-taking is showing up in high-profile places
In a note circulating in the financial media today, ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood is reported to have trimmed SoFi exposure by selling a small block of shares late last week—an attention-grabbing signal given SOFI’s strong 2025 run. [3]
This doesn’t change fundamentals by itself, but it adds to the “post-rally cooling” tone around the name—especially coming so soon after SoFi’s latest equity raise.
The $1.5 billion share offering: dilution is the near-term overhang
SoFi’s biggest stock-specific catalyst right now remains its December 2025 common stock offering—both because of dilution and because it raises the question investors always ask after a big rally: why sell stock now?
What SoFi did
SoFi priced an underwritten public offering of 54,545,454 shares at $27.50 per share, for ~$1.5 billion in gross proceeds (before fees). The company also granted underwriters an option to purchase up to 8,181,818 additional shares. [4]
The offering closed on December 8, 2025, and the shares were sold by SoFi (not selling shareholders), with proceeds earmarked for general corporate purposes such as strengthening capital, improving capital management flexibility, and funding growth opportunities. [5]
Why the market reacted negatively
When the offering was announced, the market’s immediate reaction centered on dilution. Several outlets reported the stock dropped around 6% in after-hours trading after the news, even as many acknowledged SOFI’s powerful year-to-date gains in 2025. [6]
Importantly, this wasn’t the first time SoFi tapped equity markets in 2025: the company also announced a $1.5 billion common stock offering in late July. [7]
The dilution math (in plain English)
SoFi’s December deal added 54.5 million new shares—about 4.5% relative to the roughly 1.20 billion shares outstanding figure cited in offering materials as of late Q3. (The underwriter option would add more if fully exercised.) [8]
That’s not catastrophic dilution, but it is meaningful enough to pressure per-share metrics in the short term—and to reset the conversation around what valuation multiple investors are willing to pay after a major run.
Fundamentals check: SoFi’s record Q3 and raised 2025 guidance still anchor the bull case
The counterweight to dilution is that SoFi has been putting up the kind of numbers that keep growth investors interested—especially those looking for a fintech name that’s moving toward sustained profitability.
Highlights from SoFi’s Q3 2025 results
SoFi reported record performance for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, including:
- GAAP net revenue: about $961.6 million (up 38% year over year)
- GAAP net income: about $139.4 million, with diluted EPS of $0.11
- Adjusted net revenue: about $950 million (record)
- Fee-based revenue: about $408.7 million (record, up 50% year over year)
- Members:12.6 million (up 35% year over year), with 905,000 added in Q3
- Products:18.6 million (up 36% year over year) [9]
On profitability and funding efficiency, SoFi also emphasized that its deposit mix and funding strategy reduced costs—pointing to an average deposit rate substantially below warehouse facility costs and annualized interest expense savings tied to its funding remix. [10]
Guidance: SoFi raised its 2025 outlook
Reuters reported that SoFi raised its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS forecast to about $0.37, above earlier guidance and ahead of analyst expectations compiled by LSEG in that report. [11]
This is one reason the stock rallied so hard earlier in 2025: investors saw improving profitability and stronger execution not just in lending, but in fee-based and platform-driven revenue streams.
Growth catalysts beyond lending: crypto trading, loan platform deals, and product expansion
Crypto is back—and SoFi wants to be early among banks
SoFi has also leaned into digital assets again. Reuters reported in November that SoFi rolled out crypto trading for customers, enabling buying, selling, and holding of multiple cryptocurrencies, with CEO Anthony Noto emphasizing that SoFi’s banking charter positions it to offer crypto and blockchain services amid a shifting regulatory landscape. [12]
SoFi has also discussed plans for a SoFi-branded USD stablecoin concept in 2026 timelines in public reporting, adding another potential engagement and monetization lever—though investors will likely demand clarity on compliance, risk controls, and revenue impact. [13]
The “loan platform business” is increasingly central
SoFi’s strategy has been to generate more fee-based income by originating loans for third parties or referring borrowers, rather than always holding loans on its own balance sheet.
A key example: Reuters reported earlier in 2025 that SoFi finalized an agreement of up to $5 billion with funds managed by Blue Owl Capital to support personal loans via SoFi’s platform, aligning with SoFi’s push toward less capital-intensive revenue streams. [14]
That theme showed up in Q3 too: SoFi disclosed that its loan platform business contributed materially to adjusted net revenue, including billions in personal loans originated on behalf of third parties. [15]
More consumer “ecosystem” moves: Smart Card and private markets access
Beyond Smart Card, SoFi and partners have also continued to expand product breadth (including private markets access initiatives aimed at accredited investors), reinforcing the “one app for everything” narrative—though investors will still prioritize measurable impacts on deposits, engagement, and monetization. [16]
Wall Street forecasts as of Dec. 15: “Hold” consensus, targets clustered in the mid-to-high $20s
Despite strong execution, the most consistent theme across major forecast aggregators today is caution on valuation after the rally.
MarketBeat: 22 analysts, “Hold,” average target around $25–$26
MarketBeat shows a consensus “Hold” rating based on 22 analyst ratings, with an average 12-month price target of $25.69 (with a high of $38 and a low of $17). [17]
StockAnalysis: 15 analysts, “Hold,” average target ~$24.7; median ~$27
StockAnalysis reports a “Hold” consensus from its tracked analyst set, with an average target around $24.7 and a median target around $27 (high target cited at $37, low at $12). [18]
What analysts appear to be debating right now
The split looks less about whether SoFi is executing (many agree it is) and more about:
- How much growth is already priced in after the 2025 surge
- Whether fee-based businesses and platform revenues can keep scaling fast enough to justify premium multiples
- The near-term effect of dilution and what SoFi’s capital strategy implies about future returns
As one example of the debate in public notes today, coverage summarizing recent calls references some analysts maintaining neutral/hold stances while adjusting targets and others staying more skeptical on risk/reward even after strong quarters. [19]
The next catalyst: Q4 earnings season and 2026 guidance
For many investors, the next “decision point” is less about the past quarter and more about what management says about 2026.
Several market calendars currently point to an expected SoFi earnings report around January 26, 2026 (timing can change, so investors typically confirm via SoFi’s investor relations updates). [20]
Key questions likely to matter most
- What happens to per-share metrics after dilution?
Investors will look for how the new capital is expected to translate into growth, efficiency, or optionality—not just a bigger cash buffer. [21] - Is fee-based growth still accelerating?
SoFi has leaned hard into fee-based revenue (loan platform, interchange, brokerage, referrals), which helped drive record numbers in 2025. [22] - Does the Smart Card move deposits and engagement?
“Primary financial relationship” is the long-term prize. If Smart Card increases recurring usage and balances, that’s strategically meaningful. [23] - Crypto rollout: adoption, economics, and compliance posture
Even if crypto is a smaller revenue line initially, investors will want clarity on take rates, user behavior, and regulatory expectations. [24] - Credit quality in personal loans
Management has talked about improving credit performance in recent reporting; markets will watch charge-offs, delinquencies, and underwriting discipline closely—especially if macro conditions shift. [25]
Bottom line for SoFi stock on Dec. 15, 2025
SoFi is one of the more closely watched “new-era” U.S. financial platforms because it’s trying to pull off a rare combo: grow like a fintech, fund like a bank, and monetize like a diversified ecosystem. The company’s 2025 execution—record members, products, and revenue growth—helps explain why SOFI became a standout performer earlier this year. [26]
But today’s stock story is also about digestion: the market is absorbing a second $1.5 billion equity raise in six months and recalibrating what’s “fair value” after a huge run. With consensus targets hovering around the mid-$20s and many analysts sitting at “Hold,” the next leg for SOFI likely depends on whether SoFi can turn its expanded product slate (Smart Card, crypto, platform partnerships) into clearly accelerating profit-per-share growth heading into 2026. [27]
References
1. www.atmmarketplace.com, 2. investors.sofi.com, 3. www.tipranks.com, 4. investors.sofi.com, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. www.barrons.com, 7. investors.sofi.com, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. investors.sofi.com, 10. investors.sofi.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. investors.sofi.com, 16. www.prnewswire.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.sec.gov, 22. investors.sofi.com, 23. investors.sofi.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com
