NEW YORK, July 29, 2026, 04:34 EDT
- SpaceX slipped 1.3% to $114.90 before the market opened, after posting a 2.6% rise in the previous session on Tuesday.
- An initial estimate puts the company’s valuation at 81.9 times its 2025 sales.
- The FCC filing includes as many as one million satellites. Results for the second quarter are scheduled for release on August 4.
SpaceX NASDAQ:SPCX fell ahead of Wednesday’s market open after renewed environmental attention on its orbital artificial-intelligence project. NBC News, in a report on Tuesday, pointed to scientists raising issues about pollution from spacecraft re-entry. Nasdaq trading starts at 9:30 a.m. EDT.
The focus is significant as SpaceX retains a market capitalization of $1.53 trillion. Relative to projected 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion, this market value represents 81.9 times the company’s sales. This figure is a preliminary estimate based on Tuesday’s closing price.
This type of multiple puts more emphasis on future expansion. A delay in regulation would primarily lessen the value investors attribute to orbital computing. Starlink’s current connectivity revenue would not be directly affected.
SpaceX ended Tuesday at $116.41, representing a 13.8% drop from its $135 IPO price and a 22.4% decline from its initial $150 trade. The stock also fell 5.8% across the five most recent sessions ending Tuesday. These figures are preliminary.
Filings from SpaceX highlight the significance of timing. Connectivity is already bringing in operating profit, while AI continues to demand substantial capital investment.
| Segment | Q1 2026 revenue | Q1 operating result | Result as a share of revenue | 2025 capital spending |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity | $3.26 billion | +$1.19 billion | +36.5% | $4.18 billion |
| Artificial intelligence | $0.82 billion | -$2.47 billion | -301.8% | $12.73 billion |
Initial estimates based on segment data provided by SpaceX.
In 2025, capital spending on AI was approximately triple that of connectivity. The segment’s operating loss in the first quarter also surpassed three times its revenue. This means connectivity only partly balances the cost of AI investments.
The Federal Communications Commission received SpaceX’s application in February. The submission pertains to as many as one million satellites at altitudes ranging from 500 to 2,000 kilometres. Acceptance for filing is not an indication of final approval.
Scale sets SpaceX apart from potential private competitors. Starcloud has applied for as many as 88,000 data centre satellites, while Blue Origin’s Project Sunrise involves up to 51,600.
SpaceX’s suggested maximum is 11.4 times higher than Starcloud’s, and 19.4 times greater than Blue Origin’s. These values represent application limits rather than predicted deployments.
A coalition led by Earthjustice has requested the FCC to halt licensing, seeking a comprehensive environmental review of the program before proceeding. Ruskin Hartley, executive director of DarkSky, said: “These projects could permanently alter the night sky as we know it.” Earthjustice
The scientific record lacks completeness. A NOAA-led analysis detected spacecraft metals in roughly 10% of stratospheric sulfuric-acid aerosol samples. With continued expansion of satellite numbers, that proportion could rise to nearly 50%. The potential impact on aerosol characteristics is still undetermined.
Analysts are expressing increased caution regarding timing, while consensus on the concept remains steady. “Any kind of displacement of terrestrial data centers is 10 years plus out,” Altman Solon partner Anthony Milovantsev told Reuters. The development of orbital computing continues to rely on Starship, reduced launch expenses and additional advances in engineering. Reuters
SpaceX states that orbital AI deployment may start as soon as 2028. This creates a significant interval between the rollout of initial hardware and the achievement of substantial commercial impact.
Phenomenal World puts forward a strategic rebuttal, stating that orbital slots and radio spectrum are limited resources, influenced by previous developments. Taking early control may offer benefits that are difficult for competitors to overturn.
As a result, investors must consider two timelines. Connectivity revenues are apparent today, while returns from orbital AI rely on regulatory approval, the success of Starship, and cost of deployment.
The next financial update is set for Tuesday, August 4, when SpaceX will announce its second-quarter earnings after markets close. The company’s management will hold a webcast at 4:30 p.m. EDT. Investors are focused on connectivity profit, expenditures related to AI, and any revisions to the 2028 schedule.
Risks: Conducting a more extensive environmental review may delay licensing and postpone orbital investments. Greater Starship reuse or reduced launch expenses may help mitigate some of that delay. The one-million number is still a requested cap, not a deployment target set by the company.
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