NEW YORK, July 4, 2026, 09:07 EDT
- SpaceX finished at $162.00, up 20% from the $135 IPO but still down 28% from the $225.64 peak. U.S. markets were closed Friday for Independence Day.
- Analyst price targets are now anywhere from $165 up to $310. Morningstar’s fair value is still $63. Kailash Concepts describes the sales multiple as “catastrophic.” Barron’s
- Traders watching SpaceX’s move into the Nasdaq-100 are focused less on earnings right now and more on supply, with index-tracking demand estimates ranging between $4.3 billion and $27 billion.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. NASDAQ:SPCX is showing how price can disconnect from sales as index flows and options activity hit the name harder than anything models are tracking. The shares last traded at $162.00, still up from the $135 IPO level, but well off the $225.64 high just after its June debut.
Nasdaq Inc. NASDAQ:NDAQ said SpaceX raised $85.7 billion including the underwriters’ overallotment, putting its market value at $2.1 trillion on day one. The shares opened at $150 and closed at $160.95, up 19.2% from the IPO price, according to Nasdaq.
| Measure | Figure | Investor read |
|---|---|---|
| Latest quote | $162.00 | Up 20.0% from IPO price |
| High cited in market data | $225.64 | Latest quote trades 28.2% lower |
| IPO proceeds | $85.7 billion | Roughly 635 million shares priced at $135 |
| 2025 revenue | $18.7 billion | Market cap is about 113x sales |
| Morningstar fair value | $63 | 61.1% discount to market |
Sell-side is split on SpaceX. Seven out of 13 analysts have a Buy, Barron’s said, with price targets in a wide range from $165 up to $310. Daiwa’s Jonathan Kees began coverage at Hold, target at $175. Kailash Concepts said the valuation is about 100 times sales and called it “catastrophic.” Barron’s
Morningstar Inc. NASDAQ:MORN equity analyst Nicolas Owens has a different view. He puts SpaceX’s value at $63 a share, calling his number “mathematics more than skepticism.” Owens’s most optimistic case is $154 a share, but that’s still under the latest quote. Morningstar gives that scenario a 7% chance. Morningstar
| Firm / analyst | Rating or view | Price / value | What it says |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morningstar / Nicolas Owens | Fair value | $63 | Analyst sees low chances for AI and orbital centers |
| Daiwa / Jonathan Kees | Hold | $175 | Company has strong assets but build-out risk is high |
| Susquehanna / Charles Minervino | Neutral | $170 | Analyst wants to see “a better entry point” |
| Wedbush / Dan Ives | Outperform | $190 | Bullish on Starship and AI |
| Oppenheimer / Timothy Horan | Outperform | $250 | Cursor deal increases AI revenue outlook |
| Street range cited by Barron’s | Mixed | $165-$310 | Seven of 13 ratings are Buy |
The flow story is mostly mechanical here. ETF.com put buying from Invesco QQQ Trust NASDAQ:QQQ at around $4.3 billion, with between $22 billion and $27 billion across Nasdaq-100 and Russell-related ETFs, as SpaceX gets added to the Nasdaq-100 on July 7. Reuters cited a JPMorgan estimate pegging passive inflows tied to the change at about $4.3 billion.
| Passive-buying estimate | Dollar amount | Shares at $162 | Approx. share of IPO shares sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ estimate | $4.3 billion | 26.5 million | 4.2% |
| Low total tracker estimate | $22 billion | 135.8 million | 21.4% |
| High total tracker estimate | $27 billion | 166.7 million | 26.3% |
This is part of why valuing the stock short term is tough. An index buyer isn’t making a call on $2 trillion, it’s just buying ahead of the rebalance. Options desks are tracking this too, with traders chasing the scarcity trade. CNBC’s Oliver Renick pointed to interest in SpaceX options after the IPO.
Sales are still light for the valuation. Business Insider, citing the S-1, said 2025 revenue was $18.7 billion and the loss hit $4.9 billion. Starlink posted $11.39 billion in 2025 sales, while space brought in $4.09 billion and AI logged $3.2 billion. AI also took on $12.7 billion in capex.
The split here is clear. Bulls say there’s value in AI, space infrastructure and reusing Starship. Bears focus on today’s numbers—sales and cash flow. Wedbush’s Ives team didn’t mince words in a note quoted by Investopedia: “Cash burn means the thesis can expire.” Investopedia
Nasdaq says its markets will be closed July 3, 2026 for Independence Day observed. Usual trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Eastern, Monday to Friday. The Nasdaq-100 change is scheduled before the open July 7.
Related articles: NASDAQ:SPCX
