NEW YORK, August 9, 2026, 09:05 EDT — U.S. markets are closed
- SpaceX finished Friday at $133.11, up 15.8% on the day and 23% across the week.
- The initial unlock brought 911.5 million additional eligible shares, increasing the IPO float from 638.9 million shares.
- Revenue increased by 92% in the second quarter, while capital expenditure totaled $18.4 billion.
SpaceX closed its inaugural lockup week almost level with the $135 IPO price. A rally on Friday snapped a four-week decline. The stock ended 1.4% under its offer price.
The main driver was on the supply side, rather than any unrelated space initiatives. On Thursday, as many as 911.5 million insider shares became available. Despite this, SpaceX gained 6.1% during that session and added another 15.8% on Friday.
The number of potentially tradable shares rose to 1.55 billion from roughly 638.9 million, a 143% jump. On Friday, a volume of 242.1 million shares represented 15.6% of the total widened pool. Being eligible does not mean all shares were sold.
The recovery exceeded the robust performance of the market by 17.8 percentage points last week.
| Asset | Friday move | Weekly move | Friday close |
|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX NASDAQ:SPCX | advanced 15.8% | up 23.0% over the week | $133.11 |
| Nasdaq Composite | rose 1.3% | gained 5.2% in the week | 26,690.62 |
| S&P 500 | increased by 0.6% | added 3.6% for the week | 7,757.64 |
Jim Cramer described SpaceX as an investment suitable for multiple generations, saying on CNBC, “SpaceX could be a 100-year piece of paper too.” He based his reasoning on the potential of lunar business, Starship, and orbital data centers. LinkedIn
The most recent quarter provided a boost. Revenue totaled $7.81 billion and adjusted EBITDA increased to $3.54 billion. The net loss reduced to $541 million. Starlink’s subscriber count doubled to 12 million.
The reported increase was widespread. Expenditure accelerated at a much quicker pace.
| Q2 financial measure | 2026 | 2025 | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.814 billion | $4.071 billion | increased 91.9% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $3.538 billion | $1.214 billion | rose 191.4% |
| Net loss | $541 million | $1.008 billion | narrowed by 46.3% |
| Capital expenditure | $18.369 billion | $2.825 billion | up 550.2% |
| Capex as percentage of revenue | 235.1% | 69.4% | increased by 165.7 percentage points |
SpaceX reports Adjusted EBITDA as a non-GAAP metric.
The spending gulf continues to pose the tougher challenge for investors. Overall capital expenditures were 2.35 times the revenue generated in the quarter. AI capital spending specifically amounted to 6.18 times the sales of the division.
Connectivity continued to be the primary contributor to the group’s operating profit. AI achieved a positive adjusted EBITDA, though it posted an operating loss of $1.26 billion.
| Q2 segment | Revenue | Operating income or loss | Capex | Capex/revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity | $4.291 billion | $1.656 billion | $1.367 billion | 0.32 times |
| AI | $2.561 billion | $(1.257) billion | $15.828 billion | 6.18 times |
| Space | $962 million | $(542) million | $1.174 billion | 1.22 times |
Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen stated that the payback period for new compute installations was “less than one-year.” SpaceX secured an additional $6.7 billion in cloud agreements following the end of the quarter. Subsequent filings will need to indicate if those returns lead to sustained free cash flow. Reuters
Wall Street sentiment is largely optimistic, though expectations vary significantly. The consensus price target from 28 analysts is $228, suggesting a potential upside of around 71% from Friday’s closing price.
| Firm and analyst | Recommendation | Price target | Implied upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argus Research — Steve Silver | Raised to Buy | $160 | 20.2% |
| Piper Sandler NYSE:PIPR — Alexander Potter | Neutral, lowered target | $140 | 5.2% |
| Wells Fargo NYSE:WFC — Ken Gawrelski | Overweight, trimmed target | $215 | 61.5% |
| Cantor Fitzgerald — Colin Canfield | Overweight | $246 | 84.8% |
| Needham — Ryan Koontz | Buy | $250 | 87.8% |
| 28-analyst consensus | Buy | $228 | 71.3% |
Analyst estimates, not official company forecasts, are used for target figures. Upside is based on Friday’s closing price of $133.11.
Markets resume trading on Monday, with the focus shifting from earnings to inflation as the key external driver. July CPI data is set for release on Wednesday. Producer prices will be reported Thursday, and retail sales data is due on Friday.
| Date and time | Market catalyst | Relevance for SpaceX |
|---|---|---|
| August 10 | U.S. cash markets resume trading | Shows if demand after unlock remains steady |
| August 12, 08:30 EDT | July CPI | Potential impact on yields and valuation for growth stocks |
| August 13, 08:30 EDT | July PPI | Evaluates inflation’s effect on interest rate expectations |
| August 14, 08:30 EDT | July retail sales | Indicates the state of consumer spending and rate exposure |
The next fixed lockup stage is set for August 20, allowing an additional 7% portion to become available, according to the filing. Subsequent tranches will be released through December 8, though bigger insider stakes are subject to extended restrictions.
Risks are still elevated. SpaceX continues to run negative free cash flow, and capital expenditures could stay close to those seen in Q2. Ongoing unlocks, a concentrated customer base, and the progress of Starship may further heighten volatility.
Friday’s surge supports an aspect of Cramer’s argument. Investors handled a significant potential boost in supply. However, this does not confirm hundred years’ worth of returns. Ongoing cash production will be the next necessary validation.
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